SI

West Region Breakdown: Top-Seed Florida Likely Pick to Win NCAA Tournament

Kansas has the toughest draw amid a roller coaster Big 12 season, while Colorado State could bust brackets.

Kevin Sweeney

The SEC tournament champion Gators will be a trendy Final Four pick.
The SEC tournament champion Gators will be a trendy Final Four pick. / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
In this story:

The selection committee’s work is in the books, and it’s finally time for the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament to get underway. With the entire field finally set after a thrilling regular season, we’re on the verge of seeing which teams have a date with Cinderella, who is about to bust your bracket and which coaches have every right to start complaining about their seed.

Who will make it out of San Francisco with an eye on cutting down the nets in San Antonio this year? Here’s a breakdown of the loaded West Regional and who could emerge from the most intriguing part of the bracket. 

State of the No. 1 Seed: Florida Gators

This very much looks like the best team Gainesville, Fla., has seen since the national title–winning teams under Billy Donovan, and they may well wind up as one of the betting favorites in this year’s tournament by the time tip-off comes around. Coach Todd Golden, after navigating a Title IX investigation early in the year and eventually being cleared, has been great at making adjustments from game-to-game and has one of the best offenses around—scoring 80-plus points in each of their last seven games on their way to a SEC tournament title. They’ve got a host of upperclassmen to lean on as key contributors, and the Gators can either go small if needed or can throw out a bigger lineup depending on the matchups, great flexibility at this time of year. 

Toughest Draw: No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks

It’s not been a great season for the Jayhawks as they started with some big wins and high expectations but have since ridden a roller coaster through conference play to wind up as the No. 7 in the West. Their reward, if you can call it that, for having a subpar season by historical standards is John Calipari’s Arkansas Razorbacks in the opener and then will get to see Rick Pitino and the Big East champs in Providence to even make it to the second weekend. Then you can name any of the other teams on the top half of the bracket save for the No. 16 seed Norfolk State Spartans as a pretty tough draw, from Border War rivals like the Missouri Tigers to the reigning back-to-back champions in the UConn Huskies or even the red-hot Florida Gators. The saving grace for Bill Self’s squad is they will probably have to play out of their minds to even advance that far as there’s a murder’s row of teams and big-name coaches in their way of a trip to San Antonio. 

Nique Clifford, Colorado State
Will Nique Clifford and Colorado State pull off a Cinderella run at the NCAA tournament? / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Team That Could Bust Your Bracket: No. 12 Colorado State Rams

Niko Medved didn’t look like he had a tourney team at the beginning of the season (starting off 5–5), but the Rams have recently turned into one of the hottest groups around. They’ve won 10 games in a row and ran through the Mountain West tournament like it was nothing, blowing out the Boise State Broncos so badly in the title game it may have cost their future Pac-12 rivals a spot in the Big Dance. They’re pretty balanced on both ends of the court and have versatile wings like Nique Clifford and Rashaan Mbemba who can cause problems for any number of power-conference opponents they could end up seeing. They have a very winnable game against the AAC champion Memphis Tigers in the opening round and won’t mind trying to space out a Maryland Terrapins team in a potential second-round meeting. Florida won’t be easy either if it can make it to the Bay Area, but if anybody won’t mind getting up and down with the Gators, it just might be the very trendy Rams.

Player to Watch: Bennett Stirtz, Drake Bulldogs

The D-II Drake Bulldogs are going to be a storyline that instantly catches on with folks who didn’t catch the MVC champions during the regular season as a slew of Ben McCollum’s players followed him up a level to make it to the D-I NCAA tournament. Stirtz is the guy who makes everything tick, leading the country in minutes played and stuffing the stat sheet in just about every way possible. He’s got a great set of teammates in Tavion Banks and Isaiah Jackson to get the ball to, but the junior from Liberty, Mo., has played in big games before and isn’t afraid to take over if need be either.

Tamar Bates, Missouri Tigers
Tamar Bates and Missouri can't overlook their first-round opponent in Division II's Drake. / Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Most Intriguing Matchup: No. 6 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs

The aforementioned Division II angle was always going to make Drake’s first-round matchup a must-see, but it coming against Mizzou turns it up a notch given the presence of four former Northwest Missouri State players taking on their former state’s biggest program. Both offenses are extremely efficient in different ways (the Bulldogs slow it way down, the Tigers like to push) so whoever controls the tempo will be key in this one, which has all the makings of one that comes down to the wire. Dennis Gates has tournament experience and did a great job this season, but he’ll have to be wary of this matchup—especially given Missouri’s history of upsets to teams just like Drake in the early rounds.

Obviously this section would be incomplete without mentioning the possibilities of the matchups of the tournament in the second round, which are about as juicy as they come. In the bottom half, you could see Pitino’s St. John’s squad take on either Bill Self or Calipari in Providence, while defending champion UConn drew Porter Moser’s Oklahoma Sooners in the opening round before potentially getting a very dangerous Florida squad. 

Regional Finalists: No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders

Don’t sleep on Grant McCasland’s Red Raiders, who check in as KenPom’s No. 7 team right now and have one of the best offenses around when the shots are falling. They’ve been up-and-down since February, but are perfectly capable of making a run to the regional final at the Chase Center behind the likes of JT Toppin and Darrion Williams. 

Pick to Win the Region: No. 1 Florida Gators

Florida is going to be a trendy pick to win everything, much less the West Regional. While it will be a long trip to the West Coast, that probably matters a little less given how well it has been playing—winning 12 of its last 13 and knocking off four teams in the top 10 while it was at it. The Gators have momentum from capturing the SEC tournament on Sunday and pose so many matchup issues that it will be a shock if they don’t head to Texas when the calendar flips over to April.

Best Bet: Connecticut vs. Oklahoma (OVER 146.5)

Both of these teams' motion offenses should feast against the other, with the Huskies' patented unit cutting around an Oklahoma defense that struggled mightily in SEC play to defend. 

However, the Sooners' offense should have plenty of success against the Huskies, with the likes of Jeremiah Fears getting to the free-throw line and pushing off Connecticut turnovers. 

UConn’s offense has been more than capable all season of playing at an elite level. An ability to dominate the Sooners' bottom 100 defensive rebounding unit should lead to plenty of chances for the Huskies, but the team’s defense has been a big issue all season long. 

UConn is 333rd in the country in opponent free-throw rate while OU ranks 29th in the country in getting to the charity stripe, setting up for a ton of free-throw opportunities for a top 10 free -throw shooting team in the country, helping this game go over the total.

—Reed Wallach

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More NCAA Tournament on Sports Illustrated

Published |Modified
Kevin Sweeney
KEVIN SWEENEY

Kevin Sweeney is a staff writer at Sports Illustrated covering college basketball and the NBA draft. He joined the SI staff in July 2021 and also serves host and analyst for The Field of 68. Sweeney is a Naismith Trophy voter and ia member of the U.S. Basketball Writers Association. He is a graduate of Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism.

Home/College Basketball