Bowl projections: Predicting the playoff, every bowl game after Week 5

Washington and Clemson move into the projected College Football Playoff field after their big wins in Week 5, causing a cascade of changes throughout the bowl matchups.

Two changes at the top of these bowl projections caused a cascade of shifts down the list. Stanford and Florida State, two teams projected to make the College Football Playoff in last week’s slate of bowl projections, fell. Although the Cardinal could play their way back into a playoff berth—with some help from a Washington setback—Florida State is out of the mix.

Those shifts, along with the fluid hierarchy in the Big 12, lead to swings throughout the projected bowl matchups this week. Here is where things stand heading into Week 6.

But first, a reminder about how the college football postseason works. The playoff selection committee will choose the teams for the two playoff semifinals—the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl this year—and the four other marquee bowls that are part of the New Year’s Six. The highest ranked Group of Five conference champion must play in one of those six games, and other games, such as the Rose Bowl, have conference tie-ins.

The remaining bowl games are also governed by agreements with the 10 FBS conferences, though if a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its tie-ins, that bowl can select another conference’s representative. In some cases, leagues will pool together their bowl tie-ins to create more flexibility. The Music City Bowl, for example, can choose either an ACC or Big Ten team to face an SEC opponent.

And lastly, just because a bowl may be designated to have a particular order of selection among a conference’s teams doesn’t mean it has to adhere exactly to the standings. The Alamo Bowl’s second choice among Pac-12 teams, for example, does not require it to choose the No. 2 available team from the Pac-12 standings or from the playoff committee’s rankings. Other factors, such as location, the matchup, the size of a school’s fan base and the willingness of that fan base to travel, can influence bowls’ decisions.

Washington leaps into top five of Power Rankings after Week 5

New Year's Six bowls

Bowl	Date	Location	Matchup	Pick
Peach (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Atlanta	TBD vs. TBD	Alabama vs. Washington
Fiesta (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Glendale, Ariz.	TBD vs. TBD	Ohio State vs. Clemson
Orange	Dec. 30	Miami	ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND	Louisville vs. Tennessee
Cotton	Jan. 2	Arlington, Texas	TBD vs. TBD	Houston vs. Wisconsin
Rose	Jan. 2	Pasadena, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Michigan vs. Stanford
Sugar	Jan. 2	New Orleans	SEC vs. Big 12	Texas A&M vs. Baylor

bowl	date	location	matchup	pick
New Mexico	Dec. 17	Albuquerque, N.M,	C-USA vs. MW	Louisiana Tech vs. Air Force
Las Vegas	Dec. 17	Las Vegas	MW vs. Pac-12	Boise State vs. Arizona State
Camellia	Dec. 17	Montgomery, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Eastern Michigan vs. New Mexico State
Cure	Dec. 17	Orlando, Fla.	AAC vs. Sun Belt	Temple vs. Appalachian State
New Orleans	Dec. 17	New Orleans	Sun Belt vs. C-USA	Georgia Southern vs. Southern Miss
Miami Beach	Dec. 19	Miami	AAC vs. MAC	Cincinnati vs. Ohio
Boca Raton	Dec. 20	Boca Raton, Fla.	AAC vs. C-USA	Tulane vs. Middle Tennessee
Poinsettia	Dec. 21	San Diego	BYU vs. MW	Army* vs. Wyoming
Famous Idaho Potato	Dec. 22	Boise, Idaho	MAC vs. MW	Toledo vs. San Diego State
Bahamas	Dec. 23	Nassau, Bahamas	AAC vs. MAC	Tulsa vs. Central Michigan
Armed Forces	Dec. 23	Fort Worth, Texas	Big 12 vs. Navy	Texas vs. Navy
Dollar General	Dec. 23	Mobile, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Western Michigan vs. Troy
Hawaii	Dec. 24	Honolulu	C-USA vs. MW	Western Kentucky vs. Utah State
St. Petersburg	Dec. 26	St. Petersburg, Fla.	ACC vs. AAC	Georgia Tech vs. South Florida
Quick Lane	Dec. 26	Detroit	ACC vs. Big Ten	Notre Dame vs. Maryland
Independence	Dec. 26	Shreveport, La.	ACC vs. SEC	Wake Forest vs. Akron*
Heart of Dallas	Dec. 27	Dallas	Big Ten vs. C-USA	Kansas State* vs. Old Dominion
Military	Dec. 27	Annapolis, Md.	ACC vs. AAC	NC State vs. Memphis
Holiday	Dec. 27	San Diego	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Minnesota vs. UCLA
Cactus	Dec. 27	Phoenix	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	Texas Tech vs. Cal
Pinstripe	Dec. 28	New York	ACC vs. Big Ten	Pitt vs. Iowa
Russell Athletic	Dec. 28	Orlando, Fla.	ACC vs. Big 12	Florida State vs. TCU
Foster Farms	Dec. 28	Santa Clara, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Penn State vs. USC
Texas	Dec. 28	Houston	Big 12 vs. SEC	Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
Birmingham	Dec. 29	Birmingham, Ala.	AAC vs. SEC	Ball State* vs. Kentucky
Belk	Dec. 29	Charlotte, N.C.	ACC vs. SEC	UNC vs. Ole Miss
Alamo	Dec. 29	San Antonio	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	Oklahoma vs. Utah
Arizona	Dec. 30	Tucson, Ariz.	MW vs. Sun Belt	New Mexico vs. South Alabama
Liberty	Dec. 30	Memphis, Tenn.	Big 12 vs. SEC	West Virginia vs. LSU
Sun	Dec. 30	El Paso, Texas	ACC vs. Pac-12	Virginia Tech vs. Colo.
Music City	Dec. 30	Nashville, Ten..	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Indiana vs. Georgia
TaxSlayer	Dec. 31	Jacksonville, Fla.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Miami vs. Auburn
Citrus	Dec. 31	Orlando, Fla.	Big Ten/ACC vs. SEC	Nebraska vs. Arkansas
Outback	Jan. 2	Tampa, Fla.	Big Ten vs. SEC	Michigan State vs. Florida

*Replacement team