Alabama's CFP Hopes May Hinge on SMU Beating Clemson in ACC Championship

Crimson Tide fans will be pulling for the Mustangs on Friday night.

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) drops back to pass against the Auburn Tigers during the third quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. / Will McLelland-Imagn Images

Alabama football won't be in action in the SEC championship this weekend, but the Crimson Tide will be keenly watching another conference championship on Saturday night: the ACC title game between No. 8 SMU and No. 17 Clemson.

In Tuesday night's penultimate 2024 College Football Playoff rankings, Alabama came in at No. 11, earning the de facto last spot in the field. Miami rounded out the rankings at No. 12, but would be bumped by the Big 12 champion (either No. 15 Arizona State or No. 16 Iowa State).

SMU enters conference championship weekend as the third-highest ranked projected conference champion, ahead of No. 10 Boise State, and would earn the third first-round bye. While there is no guarantee that the Mustangs would still make the field with a loss to Clemson, a number of college football prognosticators are treating the 11–1 club as safe. That opens the possibility of the No. 17 Tigers stealing a bid by winning the conference championship. In that scenario, Clemson would bump Alabama out of the field as long as SMU remains ranked higher than the Crimson Tide.

Thoughts on the latest projected College Football Playoff bracket?? pic.twitter.com/VbdvGhSHeH

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) December 4, 2024

Of course, it is impossible to know exactly how the selection committee would handle a Clemson win, and a blowout could help keep Alabama in the mix. Even so, an Alabama team with a 9–3 record and a recent bad blowout loss to Oklahoma would have a tough argument against an SMU team that would be 11–2 with an ACC title loss.

For one weekend, as a result, Tuscaloosa will be full of temporary fans of the Ponies.

Saturday's ACC championship in Charlotte kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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