Five Thoughts on the College Football Preseason Top 25: Michigan Ranked Too High

With the 2024 season kicking off soon, here are our initial takeaways from the AP preseason poll.

Moore (left) takes over at Michigan this season following Jim Harbaugh’s departure. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

We are just over a week away from the start of the 2024 college football season, when Week 0 kicks off with the No. 10 Florida State Seminoles taking on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic in Dublin, Ireland, on Aug. 24.

The long offseason is finally coming to a close, which means that fans will soon be able to argue about actual college football being played on the field, rather than how teams look on paper or how the preseason AP Top 25 poll shook out.

Here are five thoughts on the rankings heading into the season.

1. The Big Ten and SEC, as expected, boast top national title contenders 

The Big Ten and SEC are responsible for eight of the top 10 teams in the initial preseason poll, with the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs, No. 4 Texas Longhorns, No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide and No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels representing the SEC and No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes, No. 3 Oregon Ducks, No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions and No. 9 Michigan Wolverines all entering the fold as media darlings.

Michigan’s ranking seems fortuitous thanks to last season’s national championship, while Penn State and Ole Miss have to prove they can beat the top teams in their respective conferences. Alabama remains a wild card in Year 1 of the Kalen DeBoer era, with many curious to see what the post–Nick Saban era will actually look like in Tuscaloosa, Ala.

As for the top four teams, there’s a good chance at least two make the College Football Playoff semifinals at season’s end, with Georgia and Ohio State entering the season as the betting favorites to win the national championship.

The Crimson Tide football team at practice earlier this month preparing for the first season under DeBoer. / Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News / USA TODAY NETWORK

2. Defending national champion Michigan is ranked too high

For much of the 2023 season, Michigan looked (and played) like the best team in the country. Sure, critics pointed to a soft schedule and the fact the Wolverines’ entire season came down to two games in the regular season: on the road at No. 13 Penn State and at home against No. 10 Ohio State.

The Wolverines passed both regular-season tests, routed an outgunned Iowa Hawkeyes team in the Big Ten title game, then survived a CFP semifinal at the Rose Bowl against Alabama—a game that came down to a goal-line stop in overtime.

Any Michigan doubters outside of Columbus, Ohio, were silenced when the Wolverines capped a perfect 15–0 season with a 34–13 blowout win in the national championship game against the Washington Huskies to capture the school’s first title in more than two decades.

But that was last season.

Entering 2024, Jim Harbaugh is gone, as is quarterback J.J. McCarthy, running back Blake Corum and wide receiver Roman Wilson. The Wolverines also lost six offensive linemen who played significant snaps, and nine contributors from the defensive side of the ball.

New head coach Sherrone Moore has his work cut out for him across the roster and a schedule that includes Ohio State, Oregon, Texas and the No. 23 USC Trojans. 

The Wolverines have recruited well, but there are way too many questions entering the season, from the coaching staff to the roster, to justify the program as a top-10 team in 2024. Add in that national championship game opponent Washington (who is in a similar spot with a new coaching staff and roster) failed to make the initial top 25 poll and you have a ranking for Michigan that is questionable—at best.

3. The ACC could stake its claim as college football’s second-deepest conference

The future of the ACC is murky and subject to much litigation over the league’s grant of rights as two of the conference’s top programs, the Clemson Tigers and Florida State, plot a potential exit within the next couple of seasons.

But as far as 2024 is concerned, the ACC looks as deep on paper as it has in quite some time. Sure, the league may not have a true national title contender this season. Florida State, Clemson and the Miami Hurricanes all have the talent to make the CFP, but it doesn’t appear that any of the ACC’s top three rosters have the horses to run with the top teams in the Big Ten or SEC.

But that doesn’t mean the ACC can’t have multiple contenders for a CFP spot at season’s end. Florida State, No. 14 Clemson and No. 19 Miami will all have their say, but the next crop of teams is strong, too. The No. 24 NC State Wolfpack were the only other team to make the preseason top 25, but the Louisville Cardinals, Virginia Tech Hokies and SMU Mustangs are all looming as three of the top four teams in the “others receiving votes” category.

The league could have as many as five or six teams in the top 25 by the end of September, making for one of the most competitive seasons in the ACC in quite some time.

4. No. 7 Notre Dame’s path to the College Football Playoff is clear

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have their fair share of questions entering the season.

How will veteran quarterback Riley Leonard fit in? How well will the offensive line jell, especially with the loss of starting left tackle Charles Jagusah, who was slated to replace departing star Joe Alt up front? Will the Irish improve in the downfield passing game?

Despite the questions, Notre Dame figures to be in a CFP-or-bust situation in Year 3 under Marcus Freeman. Considering how high the Irish are ranked in the initial AP poll, public perception of the program remains high entering a pivotal season.

The road to the CFP is clear for Notre Dame.

Win three of the four toughest games on the schedule: at the No. 23 Texas A&M Aggies in the opener, a late September home game against Louisville, an early November tilt against Florida State and a game on the road at USC in the season finale. Then take care of business in the other eight.

An 11–1 Notre Dame is in the playoff; a 10–2 Notre Dame will still have a good shot, but may need some help.

Freeman will lead the Fighting Irish in a CFP-or-bust season. / MANDATORY CREDIT GREG SWIERCZ / USA TODAY NETWORK

5. The Group of 5’s CFP participant is entering the season unranked

That’s because the preseason AP Top 25 does not feature a single Group of 5 school. 

The Boise State Broncos figure to be in the mix as the top-ranked Group of 5 school by season’s end, which will earn a CFP berth, and the Broncos enter the season third in the others receiving votes category. The Liberty Flames are not far behind, landing sixth in others receiving votes.

How does this compare to past years? Last season, only the No. 24 Tulane Green Wave were ranked in the initial AP Top 25. In 2022, three teams landed in the poll with the No. 23 Cincinnati Bearcats, No. 24 Houston Cougars and No. 25 UCF Knights all making the cut. For what it’s worth, all three schools are now in the Big 12.

We’re living in a college football realignment world where playing in a power conference has never been more important. That could not be more evident than by the initial preseason poll that neglected to include any Group of 5 schools.