College Football Bowl Projections After Week 12

Boise State rises while a surging Arizona State throws a wrinkle in the picture.

Ashton Jeanty runs the ball during No. 12 Boise State's 28–21 win over Nevada on Nov. 9, 2024. / Brian Losness-Imagn Images

If you came of age during the late 2000s and early 2010s—the heyday of the BCS and the spread revolution—there is something comforting about seeing Boise State in a comfortable position late in the season.

Entering Saturday, the Broncos were already poised to become the second Group of Five team to appear in the College Football Playoff. With Kansas's upset of BYU, however, Boise State has moved into position for a first-round bye in our weekly bowl projections—and a return to the site of their most famous victory.

The Broncos aren't the only mover and shaker in this week's projections. Arizona State—thanks to a big win over Kansas State—is holding down both the Big 12's and the Pac-12's residual Alamo Bowl slot at the moment, forcing the Sun Devils to play an unusual, unlikely opponent.

Here's our view of the bowl picture as it stands based on the AP Poll and College Football Reference's Simple Rating System, with commentary to follow.

Post-Week 12 Bowl Projections For the 2024 College Football Season

GAME	LOCATION	DATE	PROJECTED MATCHUP
Celebration Bowl	Atlanta	Dec. 14	Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Camellia Bowl	Montgomery, Ala.	Dec. 14	Western Michigan vs. South Alabama
Frisco Bowl	Frisco, Texas	Dec. 17	Western Kentucky vs. Texas State
Boca Raton Bowl	Boca Raton, Fla.	Dec. 18	Miami-Ohio vs. Arkansas State
LA Bowl	Inglewood, Calif.	Dec. 18	UNLV vs. California
New Orleans Bowl	New Orleans	Dec. 19	James Madison vs. Liberty
Cure Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 20	North Texas vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Gasparilla Bowl	Tampa	Dec. 20	East Carolina vs. Jacksonville State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 1	Bloomington, Ind.	Dec. 20	No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Indiana
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 2	University Park, Pa.	Dec. 21	No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Penn State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 3	Columbus	Dec. 21	No. 12 BYU at No. 5 Ohio State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 4	South Bend, Ind.	Dec. 21	No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Notre Dame
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Conway, S.C.	Dec. 23	Buffalo vs. Marshall
Potato Bowl	Boise, Idaho	Dec. 23	Bowling Green vs. San Jose State
Hawaii Bowl	Honolulu	Dec. 24	Tulane vs. Sam Houston
Detroit Bowl	Detroit	Dec. 26	Wisconsin vs. Toledo
Rate Bowl	Phoenix	Dec. 26	Nebraska vs. TCU
68 Ventures Bowl	Mobile, Ala.	Dec. 26	West Virginia vs. Georgia Southern
Birmingham Bowl	Birmingham	Dec. 27	Boston College vs. Oklahoma
Armed Forces Bowl	Fort Worth	Dec. 27	Michigan vs. Cincinnati
Liberty Bowl	Memphis	Dec. 27	Baylor vs. LSU
Holiday Bowl	San Diego	Dec. 27	Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Las Vegas Bowl	Las Vegas	Dec. 27	South Carolina vs. Colorado
Fenway Bowl	Boston	Dec. 28	Virginia Tech vs. Navy
Pinstripe Bowl	Bronx, N.Y.	Dec. 28	Pittsburgh vs. Rutgers
New Mexico Bowl	Albuquerque	Dec. 28	South Florida vs. Arkansas
Pop-Tarts Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 28	Iowa State vs. Duke
Arizona Bowl	Tucson	Dec. 28	Ohio vs. Colorado State
Military Bowl	Annapolis, Md.	Dec. 28	Memphis vs. North Carolina
Alamo Bowl	San Antonio	Dec. 28	Connecticut vs. Arizona State
Independence Bowl	Shreveport, La.	Dec. 28	Washington State vs. Army
Music City Bowl	Nashville	Dec. 30	Iowa vs. Texas A&M
ReliaQuest Bowl	Tampa	Dec. 31	Vanderbilt vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl	El Paso, Texas	Dec. 31	Louisville vs. USC
Citrus Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 31	Illinois vs. Tennessee
Texas Bowl	Houston	Dec. 31	Kansas State vs. Missouri
Fiesta Bowl	Glendale, Ariz.	Dec. 31	No. 12 BYU or No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Boise State
Peach Bowl	Atlanta	Jan. 1	No. 11 Ole Miss or No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Miami
Rose Bowl	Pasadena, Calif.	Jan. 1	No. 9 Alabama or No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Oregon
Sugar Bowl	New Orleans	Jan. 1	No. 10 Georgia or No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 2 Texas
Gator Bowl	Jacksonville	Jan. 2	SMU vs. Florida
First Responder Bowl	Dallas	Jan. 3	Virginia vs. Texas Tech
Duke's Mayo Bowl	Charlotte	Jan. 3	Minnesota vs. Syracuse
Bahamas Bowl	Nassau	Jan. 4	Northern Illinois vs. NC State
Orange Bowl	Miami Gardens, Fla.	Jan. 9	Peach Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner
Cotton Bowl	Arlington, Texas	Jan. 10	Fiesta Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner
National Championship	Atlanta	Jan. 20	Orange Bowl winner vs. Cotton Bowl winner

Notable Potential Bowl Matchups

Count Western Kentucky and Texas State (Frisco Bowl) among teams who only overlapped in a particular conference for one year; the Hilltoppers won the two teams' only Sun Belt matchup 38–7 in 2013... North Texas and Louisiana-Lafayette (Cure Bowl) overlapped for a lot longer than that, spending 2001 to '12 together in that same league.

Georgia and Indiana (CFP first round), like Alabama and the Hoosiers, have never met in football... Kudos to the Crimson Tide and Notre Dame (CFP first round) on improving: three weeks ago, these projections had them linking up in the ReliaQuest Bowl... Buffalo and Marshall (Myrtle Beach Bowl) spent six years together in the MAC... Nebraska and TCU (Rate Bowl) have played seven times but never in a bowl game; in every matchup but one the Cornhuskers were ranked 12th or higher... Michigan and Cincinnati (Armed Forces Bowl) have only played once, a 36–14 Wolverines dusting in 2017... Baylor and LSU (Liberty Bowl) played in that game in 1985, as well as the 1963 Bluebonnet Bowl (the Bears won both)... Virginia Tech and Navy (Fenway Bowl) haven't played since 1995... Iowa and Texas A&M (Music City Bowl) haven't played since 1931... In games where both Vanderbilt and Clemson (ReliaQuest Bowl) are major schools, the Commodores lead the all-time series 3-1... Illinois and Tennessee (Citrus Bowl) have never played, while Kansas State and Missouri (Texas Bowl) have played 98 times as major schools.

Ole Miss leads its all-time series against Miami (Peach Bowl) 2-1, but the two teams haven't met since a 20–7 Hurricanes win in 1951... Virginia and Texas Tech (First Responder Bowl) met in the Gator Bowl after the 2007 season, and then a slightly more famous sporting event 12 years later... Northern Illinois and NC State (Bahamas Bowl): the Dave Doeren Bowl!... If Boise State and Oregon (Cotton Bowl) have a bowl matchup in them, the fact that the Ducks won their Sept. 7 matchup 37–34 is worth noting.

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