College Football Bowl Projections After Week 14

Pencils down, everyone.

Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer during the No. 13 Crimson Tide's 28–14 win over Auburn on Nov. 30, 2024. / Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After three months of college football—three months of yawn-worthy blowouts and nail-biting thrillers—the impossible has happened.

There are 82 six-win teams this year—the exact number of bowl slots available.

Yes! This is every bowl projector's dream. It is a royal pain to have deal with either a) leaving out a six-win team, or b) picking an academically proficient five-win team. It feels ethically dubious to pick on New Mexico, but Hawaii's 38–30 win over the then-5-6 Lobos late Saturday did the bowl projection-industrial complex a massive solid.

Having sufficiently alienated Albuquerque, let's get to our last bowl projections of 2024. The AP Poll and College Football Reference's Simple Rating System are still being used as guides here even with conference standings complete—why? Beyond the obvious desire to use an up-to-date Top 25, the assumption is that bowl executives carry biases not dissimilar from sportswriters, and when in doubt will default to rudimentary metrics.

Injustices in the bowl selection process are relatively common. Why not build them into projections? Here are a final set of imperfect prognostications to end an imperfect year in an imperfect sport, with commentary to follow.

GAME	LOCATION	DATE	PROJECTED MATCHUP
Celebration Bowl	Atlanta	Dec. 14	Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Salute to Veterans Bowl	Montgomery, Ala.	Dec. 14	Western Michigan vs. South Alabama
Frisco Bowl	Frisco, Texas	Dec. 17	Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Sam Houston
Boca Raton Bowl	Boca Raton, Fla.	Dec. 18	Arkansas State vs. South Florida
LA Bowl	Inglewood, Calif.	Dec. 18	UNLV vs. California
New Orleans Bowl	New Orleans	Dec. 19	Marshall vs. Western Kentucky
Cure Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 20	Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern
Gasparilla Bowl	Tampa	Dec. 20	Arkansas vs. Virginia Tech
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 1	Athens, Ga.	Dec. 20	No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 2	University Park, Pa.	Dec. 21	No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Penn State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 3	Notre Dame, Ind.	Dec. 21	No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Notre Dame
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 4	Knoxville, Tenn.	Dec. 21	No. 9 Ohio State at No. 8 Tennessee
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Conway, S.C.	Dec. 23	Toledo vs. James Madison
Potato Bowl	Boise, Idaho	Dec. 23	Coastal Carolina vs. Buffalo
Hawaii Bowl	Honolulu	Dec. 24	Liberty vs. Colorado State
GameAbove Sports Bowl	Detroit	Dec. 26	North Texas vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl	Phoenix	Dec. 26	Minnesota vs. TCU
68 Ventures Bowl	Mobile, Ala.	Dec. 26	Texas State vs. NC State
Birmingham Bowl	Birmingham	Dec. 27	Pittsburgh vs. East Carolina
Armed Forces Bowl	Fort Worth	Dec. 27	Navy vs. West Virginia
Liberty Bowl	Memphis	Dec. 27	Baylor vs. Florida
Holiday Bowl	San Diego	Dec. 27	Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Las Vegas Bowl	Las Vegas	Dec. 27	Missouri vs. Colorado
Fenway Bowl	Boston	Dec. 28	Tulane vs. Syracuse
Pinstripe Bowl	Bronx, N.Y.	Dec. 28	Nebraska vs. Connecticut
New Mexico Bowl	Albuquerque	Dec. 28	Northern Illinois vs. San Jose State
Pop-Tarts Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 28	BYU vs. Louisville
Arizona Bowl	Tucson	Dec. 28	Miami-Ohio vs. Fresno State
Military Bowl	Annapolis, Md.	Dec. 28	Memphis vs. Boston College
Alamo Bowl	San Antonio	Dec. 28	Washington State vs. Iowa State
Independence Bowl	Shreveport, La.	Dec. 28	Army vs. Vanderbilt
Music City Bowl	Nashville	Dec. 30	Iowa vs. Texas A&M
ReliaQuest Bowl	Tampa	Dec. 31	Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Sun Bowl	El Paso, Texas	Dec. 31	Duke vs. USC
Citrus Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 31	Illinois vs. South Carolina
Texas Bowl	Houston	Dec. 31	Kansas State vs. LSU
Fiesta Bowl	Glendale, Ariz.	Dec. 31	No. 12 Arizona State or No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 4 Boise State
Peach Bowl	Atlanta	Jan. 1	No. 11 Alabama or No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 SMU
Rose Bowl	Pasadena, Calif.	Jan. 1	No. 9 Ohio State or No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Oregon
Sugar Bowl	New Orleans	Jan. 1	No. 10 Indiana or No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas
Gator Bowl	Jacksonville	Jan. 2	Oklahoma vs. Miami
First Responder Bowl	Dallas	Jan. 3	North Carolina vs. Texas Tech
Duke's Mayo Bowl	Charlotte	Jan. 3	Rutgers vs. Clemson
Bahamas Bowl	Nassau	Jan. 4	Bowling Green vs. UTSA
Orange Bowl	Miami Gardens, Fla.	Jan. 9	Peach Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner
Cotton Bowl	Arlington, Texas	Jan. 10	Fiesta Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner
National Championship	Atlanta	Jan. 20	Orange Bowl winner vs. Cotton Bowl winner

Notable Potential Bowl Matchups

We've hit basically every permutation in this space this season; still, here are a few new ones... Jacksonville State and Georgia Southern (Cure Bowl) are set to begin a home-and-home next year... First potential meeting for Arizona State and Penn State (CFP first round) since the 1977 Fiesta Bowl, and the first potential meeting for Ohio State and Tennessee (CFP first round) since the 1996 Citrus Bowl.

If Minnesota-TCU (Rate Bowl) has a whiff of familiarity, the Golden Gophers threw a huge scare into a No. 2 Horned Frogs team in 2015... Pittsburgh and East Carolina (Birmingham Bowl) is an alternate-history superconference matchup (as is Tulane and Syracuse in the Fenway Bowl, and Memphis and Boston College in the Military Bowl)... Let's hope everybody gets four downs in a Las Vegas Bowl between Missouri and Colorado... Connecticut is being sent to the Pinstripe Bowl to meet Nebraska here in a bid to create some regional interest; the Huskies' fate might be the most intriguing non-CFP question of this bowl season... Louisville beat BYU (Pop-Tarts Bowl) in the 2001 Liberty Bowl 28–10.

Should Alabama and SMU (Peach Bowl) meet, it would be their first meeting since the 1983 Sun Bowl, when the unranked Crimson Tide blasted the No. 6 Mustangs 28–7... The Buckeyes and Oregon (Rose Bowl) have met twice in that game and once in the national championship; Ohio State is 3-0 in those games... Oklahoma and Miami (Gator Bowl) is a branding-friendly #CollegeFootballHeritage matchup if ever there was one; the two teams have four meeting with both ranked under their belt... To single out a novel hypothetical semifinal matchup, Georgia and the Mustangs (Orange Bowl) haven't met since the Cotton Bowl of Dec. 1966—a 24–9 Bulldogs victory.

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