College Football Bowl Projections After Week 13

The finish line to a bonkers regular season looms.

Oklahoma fans celebrate their team's 24–3 win over No. 7 Alabama on Nov. 23, 2024. / BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

When you're in the bowl-projection business, it is essential to balance two competing instincts: the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it would look now, and the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it is likely to look after the season.

As you get further into the season and the college football puzzle sorts itself out, the two instincts converge and the exercise becomes easier. The number of square pegs in round holes falls sharply. Some matchups hold steady week-over-week. When chaos strikes—as it did this week, much to the chagrin of Alabama, Texas A&M and others—you can handle it.

Without further ado, let's take a look at a provisional bowl picture based on the AP Poll and College Football Reference's Simple Rating System. With the regular season about to end, Academic Progress Rate—the statistic that determines which 5-7 teams are eligible for bowl games—will be brought online next week if necessary. Commentary follows.

Post-Week 13 Bowl Projections For the 2024 College Football Season

GAME	LOCATION	DATE	PROJECTED MATCHUP
Celebration Bowl	Atlanta	Dec. 14	Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Salute to Veterans Bowl	Montgomery, Ala.	Dec. 14	Georgia Southern vs. Auburn
Frisco Bowl	Frisco, Texas	Dec. 17	Jacksonville State vs. Texas State
Boca Raton Bowl	Boca Raton, Fla.	Dec. 18	Vanderbilt vs. South Alabama
LA Bowl	Inglewood, Calif.	Dec. 18	UNLV vs. California
New Orleans Bowl	New Orleans	Dec. 19	James Madison vs. Sam Houston
Cure Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 20	Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Gasparilla Bowl	Tampa	Dec. 20	LSU vs. East Carolina
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 1	Athens, Ga.	Dec. 20	No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Georgia
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 2	University Park, Pa.	Dec. 21	No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Penn State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 3	Columbus	Dec. 21	No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Ohio State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 4	South Bend, Ind.	Dec. 21	No. 10 SMU at No. 7 Notre Dame
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Conway, S.C.	Dec. 23	Buffalo vs. Marshall
Potato Bowl	Boise, Idaho	Dec. 23	Miami-Ohio vs. San Jose State
Hawaii Bowl	Honolulu	Dec. 24	Navy vs. Liberty
GameAbove Sports Bowl	Detroit	Dec. 26	Wisconsin vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl	Phoenix	Dec. 26	Rutgers vs. TCU
68 Ventures Bowl	Mobile, Ala.	Dec. 26	Arkansas State vs. Arkansas
Birmingham Bowl	Birmingham	Dec. 27	Oklahoma vs. South Florida
Armed Forces Bowl	Fort Worth	Dec. 27	Connecticut vs. Kansas
Liberty Bowl	Memphis	Dec. 27	Baylor vs. Texas A&M
Holiday Bowl	San Diego	Dec. 27	Duke vs. Washington State
Las Vegas Bowl	Las Vegas	Dec. 27	South Carolina vs. Colorado
Fenway Bowl	Boston	Dec. 28	Tulane vs. Virginia Tech
Pinstripe Bowl	Bronx, N.Y.	Dec. 28	Georgia Tech vs. Michigan
New Mexico Bowl	Albuquerque	Dec. 28	Appalachian State vs. Colorado State
Pop-Tarts Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 28	BYU vs. Pittsburgh
Arizona Bowl	Tucson	Dec. 28	Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Military Bowl	Annapolis, Md.	Dec. 28	Memphis vs. North Carolina
Alamo Bowl	San Antonio	Dec. 28	Washington vs. Iowa State
Independence Bowl	Shreveport, La.	Dec. 28	Army vs. West Virginia
Music City Bowl	Nashville	Dec. 30	Nebraska vs. Mississippi
ReliaQuest Bowl	Tampa	Dec. 31	Iowa vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl	El Paso, Texas	Dec. 31	Boston College vs. USC
Citrus Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 31	Illinois vs. Alabama
Texas Bowl	Houston	Dec. 31	Kansas State vs. Missouri
Fiesta Bowl	Glendale, Ariz.	Dec. 31	No. 12 Arizona State or No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Boise State
Peach Bowl	Atlanta	Jan. 1	No. 11 Indiana or No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Miami
Rose Bowl	Pasadena, Calif.	Jan. 1	No. 9 Tennessee or No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon
Sugar Bowl	New Orleans	Jan. 1	No. 10 SMU or No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Texas
Gator Bowl	Jacksonville	Jan. 2	Syracuse vs. Florida
First Responder Bowl	Dallas	Jan. 3	UTSA vs. Texas Tech
Duke's Mayo Bowl	Charlotte	Jan. 3	Minnesota vs. Louisville
Bahamas Bowl	Nassau	Jan. 4	Toledo vs. Western Kentucky
Orange Bowl	Miami Gardens, Fla.	Jan. 9	Peach Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner
Cotton Bowl	Arlington, Texas	Jan. 10	Fiesta Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner
National Championship	Atlanta	Jan. 20	Orange Bowl winner vs. Cotton Bowl winner

Notable Potential Bowl Matchups

Do not adjust your television sets: that is Auburn in the Salute to Veterans Bowl against Georgia Southern, which would mark the Tigers' first game in Montgomery's historic Cramton Bowl since 1953... James Madison and Sam Houston (New Orleans Bowl) have a pair of FCS playoff matchups under their belts, one in 2016 and one in 2020.

Tennessee and Georgia (CFP first round) are back together again; the Bulldogs won their Nov. 16 meeting 31–17... Indiana and Penn State (CFP first round) are also conference-mates; the Nittany Lions won last year's meeting between the two teams 33–24... Arizona State and Ohio State (CFP first round) have a high-profile past meeting under their belts— the 1996 season's Rose Bowl, won 20–17 by the Buckeyes... SMU and Notre Dame (CFP first round) met 40 years ago in the 1984 Aloha Bowl, a 27–20 Mustangs victory.

Arkansas State and Arkansas (68 Ventures Bowl) have never met in football; they are scheduled to do so in 2025... Connecticut and Kansas (Armed Forces Bowl) are currently ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in men's basketball... Baylor and Texas A&M (Liberty Bowl), longtime Southwest Conference rivals, have not met since 2011... Tulane and Virginia Tech (Fenway Bowl) played in last year's Military Bowl; bowl executives tend to intervene to prevent rematches... Georgia Tech and Michigan (Pinstripe Bowl) last played in 1934, a game infamous for the Wolverines benching their only Black player Willis Ward at the Yellow Jackets' request... BYU opened its 1984 national championship season against Pittsburgh (Pop-Tarts Bowl), topping the No. 3 Panthers 20–14... Bowling Green and Fresno State (Arizona Bowl) played three times in the California Bowl, a defunct game matching up the MAC and Big West champions... USC beat Boston College (Sun Bowl) 24–13 in the 2009 Emerald Bowl.

A few new potential quarterfinal matchups looming: the Sun Devils and Boise State (Fiesta Bowl; the Broncos won their last meeting in the 2011 Las Vegas Bowl 56–24), ex-conference rivals SMU and Texas (Sugar Bowl), and Kirby Smart's Georgia vs. protege Dan Lanning's Oregon in the Rose Bowl... Syracuse and Florida (Gator Bowl) played in the Orange Bowl after the 1998 season; the Gators won 31–10... Among potential semifinal matchups, keep an eye on Georgia and the Broncos (Cotton Bowl), who split two games in which both were ranked in 2005 and 2011.

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