College Football Playoff: Why is Boise State Projected to Earn a First-Round Bye?

It has to do with the methodology of the expanded 12-team playoff field.

Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty plays against the Oregon State Beavers on Nov 29, 2024. / Brian Losness-Imagn Images

A wild weekend meant some major shake-ups in the latest iteration of the Associated Press' Top 25 college football poll.

Oregon held strong at No. 1, followed by Texas, Penn State, and Notre Dame. Ohio State notably fell from No. 2 to No. 7 after losing to Michigan, while Miami plunged six spots to No. 14 following a 42–38 loss to Syracuse. The Orange have now infiltrated the Top 25 for the first time since the fall of 2022.

There are more changes coming in the fifth iteration of the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday, the final unofficial rankings announced before the official bracket is set in ink during Sunday's selection show.

The five highest-ranked conference champs will each receive an automatic bid to playoffs, while the top four will also receive a first-round bye in the 12-team bracket. As it stands, most analysts predict the bye recipients will be Oregon (Big Ten), Texas (SEC), SMU (ACC), and Boise State (Mountain West).

Why would Boise State get a bye?

You might be wondering—how could a team currently ranked at No. 10 (and No. 11 in the most recent CFP committee rankings) get a first-round bye? Well, let's break it down, remembering, again, that it's the four highest-ranked conference champions who will get the first-round pass.

As it stands, Oregon should make it into the four-team berth if it keeps up its winning streak and beats Penn State in the Big Ten championship this weekend; if the opposite occurs, Penn State will clinch the bye. No. 2 Texas will also get a bye so long as it defeats Georgia in the SEC title game, while the winner of SMU vs. Clemson in the ACC championship should cruise into the third open spot. That leaves Boise State, the only member of the AP's Top 10 not in the Big 10, SEC, or ACC (aside from Notre Dame, who isn't in a conference and therefore cannot get the bye) to round out the field. The Broncos will have to beat UNLV in the Mountain West Conference this weekend to claim the fourth spot. Voila!

It's a confusing set up, but one thing is clear—nothing is guaranteed in this brave new playoff world. In the meantime, another round of rankings from the CFP committee will drop Dec. 3, and there is yet another weekend of college football madness to go before the final bracket is announced on Dec. 8.

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