Forde-Yard Dash: Florida State’s Offseason Plan Spirals Out of Control

The Seminoles are off to an 0–2 start after an undefeated 2023 season, and the problems are far from just poor quarterback play by DJ Uiagalelei.

FSU has had a dismal start to 2024. / Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where an 0–1 LSU has become a rite of Week 1. First Quarter: Twelve Angry Men. Second Quarter: Splashy Debuts.

Third Quarter: Florida State’s Massive Miscalculation

When it spirals from bad to worse in the first two games of the season, it’s fair to say that a program’s offseason plan has failed. The Florida State Seminoles (23), high and mighty and haughty so recently, are now enduring an epic failure.

This start is so bad, Willie Taggart is embarrassed.

The Noles are 0–2 and in 17th place in the league they’re suing, the ACC. They had to scrape and scrap to even lose close to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, then were dominated by the Boston College Eagles—two teams accustomed to life in the bottom half of the league. It was a telling moment when the Eagles took a knee to run out the clock in scoring range Monday night in Tallahassee, avoiding further humiliation for the home team. That almost made the night worse.

It’s a stunning fall for the reigning league champions who went through the conference undefeated last season. Whatever Mike Norvell (24) and his staff thought they were putting together for 2024, they were badly wrong.

Since the College Football Playoff Selection Sunday show last December, nothing has gone right for FSU. They were snubbed by the selection committee. They were destroyed in a zombie bowl game after almost every key player opted out. Their offensive coordinator and line coach, Alex Atkins (25), was given a three-game suspension for NCAA rules violations. (Perhaps an underrated element of the 0–2 debacle, although Atkins has been available to coach during the week, and Norvell is the in-game play-caller.)

They lost an accomplished quarterback and had six other players taken in the top 100 picks of the NFL draft—a point of pride for the program, but an indication of the talent to be replaced this season. And the replacements—whether added via transfer or moved up the depth chart from within—clearly aren’t getting the job done.

The most obvious miscalculation was expecting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei (26) to be something other than what he was in his previous four seasons—an average player. Surrounded by an underperforming cast, he’s been sub-average so far.

But this is far from a quarterback-only problem. FSU added four transfers from SEC programs who have been in the starting lineup, with limited benefit. The most glaring: defensive end Marvin Jones Jr. came over from the Georgia Bulldogs and has produced one solo tackle and one assist in 77 snaps across the two games.

That’s emblematic of Florida State’s biggest misread—line play that was expected to be a strength has instead been a glaring weakness, on both sides of the ball. The Noles have been dominated on the ground, outrushed 453 to 119 yards. The worst part of that stat: FSU ran for 58 yards on its first possession of the season against the Yellow Jackets in Ireland, and have gained just 61 rushing yards in the 17 possessions since then.

The Seminoles completely abandoned the run against Boston College, throwing it 42 times and rushing just 16. The last thing Uiagalelei seems equipped to handle is having the game thrown onto his shoulders, yet the FSU game plan quickly defaulted to that Monday night.

(Bad as it has been, it could actually be worse if Florida State’s specialists haven’t been excellent. Punter Alex Mastromanno is third nationally at 49.88 yards per punt, and kicker Ryan Fitzgerald is 4-of-4 on field goals and 7-of-8 producing touchbacks on kickoffs.)

Despite the rampant gloom in Tallahassee, hope is not yet lost. Florida State can still make the 12-team playoff—not if it continues to play terrible football, of course, but the mathematical possibility is alive.

The Noles likely would have to win their final six ACC games, which would include a win at Miami. At 6–2, that could be good enough for second in the league and a berth in the title game—heck, maybe it even wins the regular season. But more realistically, that’s a runner-up record, whereupon they’d have to hope neither Boston College nor Georgia Tech has the same league mark, because they would lose the tiebreaker there.

In the 19-year history of the ACC championship game, 6–2 (or worse) has been the second-best league record more often than not (10 times). Then there was the 2008 circus, where 5–3 won both divisions. So if the Seminoles can run the league table between now and their game against the North Carolina Tar Heels on Nov. 2, they could have a place in the title game and a chance in Charlotte to lock up an automatic playoff berth.

But a lot has to change for that to even be a possibility. Florida State has an open date this week that offers reflection on which many of its offseason miscalculations can be fixed.

McMillan (4) posted 304 yards receiving in Week 1. / Aryanna Frank-USA TODAY Sports

Keeping Players Out of the Portal Can Be a Win, Too

The two players who had the most impressive individual performances in Week 1 were expected by many to depart their current schools via the transfer portal. Instead they stayed, and immediately inserted themselves in an admittedly premature Heisman Trophy race.

Arizona Wildcats wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (27) had a pyrotechnic opener, lighting up the New Mexico Lobos for 10 catches, 304 yards and four touchdowns. McMillan is believed to be the first player in FBS history to post 10 or more catches for 300 or more yards while averaging 30 yards per reception and scoring four TDs in a game. McMillan has Larry Fitzgerald size (6’5”, 213 pounds) and body control, making him a one-on-one nightmare. He can also run away from defenders, as evidenced by touchdowns of 69 and 78 yards.

McMillan and quarterback sidekick Noah Fifita (28) were expected to follow 2023 coach Jedd Fisch to the Washington Huskies last winter. But those two, along with Arizona linebacker Jacob Manu and tight end Keyan Burnett, came up playing together—at the youth-league level on a team coached by Fifita’s father, Les, and then at Servite High School in Anaheim.

They all chose to come to Arizona when the program was at a low ebb, then chose to stay in Tucson when Fisch departed after a 10-win season. That gives the Wildcats instant viability in their first Big 12 season.

Similarly, running back Ashton Jeanty (29) had a chance after a coaching change to bail on the Boise State Broncos. Andy Avalos was fired during the season, and interim coach/defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson was chosen as the full-time head coach after an extensive round of interviews with outside candidates.

Jeanty assessed the new landscape and decided to stay. Then he delivered a massive performance in the Broncos’ victory at Georgia Southern: 267 rushing yards and six touchdowns on just 20 carries. It’s hard for a Group of 5 player to get much Heisman love, but Jeanty should be on every voter’s radar after that performance—and he gets a huge stage Saturday at Oregon.

And on Monday night, BC quarterback Thomas Castellanos (30) was the latest winner after staying put through a coaching change. Castellanos is an undersized, dual-threat QB who welcomed the chance to be coached by an excellent offensive mind and quarterback mentor in Bill O’Brien. Their first game working together was the biggest Eagles victory in many years, with Castellanos producing three touchdowns and 179 total yards.