Forde-Yard Dash: CFP Field Narrows After Eventful Week 12

A Saturday that saw top-ranked Oregon survive on the road and BYU suffer its first loss has brought a little clarity to race for the 12-team playoff field.

Oregon Ducks defensive back Brandon Johnson celebrates after beating the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where one of the thickest sixes of all-time was scored Saturday by 5' 9", 350-pound Willie Myles of Southern: 

First Quarter: The Playoff Paths Are in Focus—Kind of

It’s taken a good while, but the College Football Playoff math is finally mathing. We are at a point where the most likely at-large pool of contenders will consist of nine teams for seven spots—five from the Southeastern Conference, three from the Big Ten and Notre Dame. An upset or two could bring others back into the picture, but the demise of undefeated teams in the other power conferences has probably reduced them to one-bid status.

Now, exactly who those nine teams are, and what order they fall into, remains one hell of a puzzle. Two games should go a long way toward firming up the pecking order in the Big Ten and SEC—the Indiana Hoosiers at the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday and the Texas Longhorns at the Texas A&M Aggies on Nov. 30. But you never know what other developments could occur.

Here’s where we are at the moment:

The loser of Texas-Texas A&M (1) is in trouble. It’s a huge game between the league co-leaders, with the winner the likely SEC regular-season champion (unless one or both of them steps on a land mine this Saturday, when the Longhorns host the Kentucky Wildcats and the Aggies visit the Auburn Tigers). But the loser remains without a quality win.

If A&M loses, it would be its third defeat and an easy disqualifier. If Texas loses, the Horns would be 10–2 with zero victories over ranked opponents. And even the winner could miss the playoff if it goes to the SEC title game and loses.

So if you thought the stakes for that game weren’t already enormous with the resumption of an ancient and bitter rivalry and Texas trying to win the SEC in its first season in the league, they’re now bigger.

The LSU Tigers and Missouri Tigers both removed themselves from playoff consideration Saturday, but the two-loss SEC pileup behind the Texas two-step remains a mess. Good luck putting them in order—but the order will matter greatly. Someone in that group could well miss the playoff, and the others are jockeying for home first-round games if they don’t win the automatic bid.

The merits and demerits of each:

The Georgia Bulldogs (2) have the most quality wins of any playoff contender, throttling Clemson on a neutral field, beating Texas by 15 on the road and then beating the Tennessee Volunteers by 14 on Saturday. But they also have losses to two other SEC playoff contenders, at the Alabama Crimson Tide and by 18 at the Mississippi Rebels.

“We’ve played the toughest schedule in our league,” coach Kirby Smart said Saturday, and he’s right (at least among contending teams). 

Georgia’s SEC work is done at 6–2, but the Dawgs have a scary game at dangerous underdog rival Georgia Tech on Nov. 29. If Georgia gets to 10–2, it should be a playoff lock—but if it makes the SEC title game and loses badly to finish 10–3, that could be a complication.

Mississippi (3) has a pair of big wins, dominating Georgia and an increasingly impressive beatdown of the South Carolina Gamecocks on the road in October. But the Rebels also now have two losses to unranked teams with the demise of LSU and the general mediocrity of Kentucky. Does a thorough beating of the Bulldogs outweigh Georgia’s overall better resume?

Tennessee (4) has a single win over a ranked opponent, defeating Alabama by seven in Knoxville. But the Vols also have a bad loss (to the Arkansas Razorbacks) and the 14-point defeat at Georgia. Of the four SEC teams with two league losses, the Vols might be the most vulnerable to being left out of the playoff at 10–2.

Alabama (5) has the victory over Georgia, a win over South Carolina and dominant wins over former contenders LSU and Missouri. A 32-point win at Wisconsin looks a little stronger today as well after the Badgers pushed the No. 1 Oregon Ducks to the brink Saturday. But Bama also has the loss at Vanderbilt and the loss at Tennessee. 

So to recap: Mississippi beat Georgia, which beat Tennessee, which beat Alabama, which beat Georgia. The records of those four teams against each other: Mississippi 1–0, Georgia 1–2, Tennessee 1–1 and Alabama 1–1.

The Big Ten’s best path to getting four teams in the playoff would be an instant classic (6) in The Horseshoe on Saturday between Indiana and Ohio State—no matter who wins. 

Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti faces his biggest challenge of the season when the 10–0 Hoosiers face Ohio State on the road on Saturday. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

If the Buckeyes win but the Hoosiers keep it close, the league could have undefeated Oregon and three one-loss teams—those two plus the Penn State Nittany Lions. If Indiana wins to reach 12–0, Ohio State probably still could get in at 10–2—the Buckeyes would have lost to a pair of undefeated teams and would have the road win over Penn State. If Indiana is beaten down, the Hoosiers’ lack of quality wins becomes a big issue.

The persistent admiration directed toward Penn State by poll voters and the committee remains perplexing. The Nittany Lions’ two best accomplishments are losing a relatively close game to Ohio State and not losing to the rest of the riffraff on their schedule. That’s it. No serve-notice victories. Penn State could benefit a little from a win at Minnesota on Saturday, but it still wouldn’t qualify as a big victory.

The Big 12 (7) is in big trouble … at least for now. The BYU Cougars’ overdue fall from the unbeaten ranks increases the likelihood that this is a one-bid league. Not only that, it should at least temporarily put the Big 12’s top team behind the Mountain West front-runner Boise State Broncos. If that holds through Selection Sunday, Boise State would vault into the top four seeds and get a first-round bye, while the Big 12 winner would be relegated to a first-round game—perhaps on the road.

The Big 12 winner still could move back ahead of Boise State (or another Group of 5 champion) by Selection Sunday, of course. Either BYU or Arizona State is going to pick up a quality win when the two meet Saturday in Tempe, and the league title game is likely to match up a pair of ranked teams.

A 12–1 BYU, with a road win over SMU, would likely rank ahead of 12–1 Boise State if it comes to that resume contest. A two-loss Big 12 champion vs. 12–1 Boise would be a closer contest. Could the UNLV Rebels enter the CFP top 25 and restore a ranked win for the Broncos that they’d likely otherwise lose with the upset of the Washington State Cougars by the New Mexico Lobos?

One potential comparative score scenario to keep in the back pocket: Colorado beat Colorado State by 19 early in the season; the Rams (7–3) could end up being Boise State’s opponent in the Mountain West title game.

The ACC (8) is also up against it in terms of landing multiple bids. The league champion will have at least one loss if it’s the Miami Hurricanes or SMU Mustangs. It will have at least two losses if it’s the Clemson Tigers. More importantly, the runner-up is guaranteed at least two losses. None of the three have beaten a currently ranked team.

If you want the best multi-bid scenario for the ACC, it’s this: SMU and Miami win out and advance to play each other in the league title game, with the winner getting the automatic bid. Meanwhile, Clemson finishes 10–2 with a win over a ranked South Carolina team to close the season. Could the Tigers have an argument for inclusion? Maybe. But they might need some upset help elsewhere.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9) continue to be the team trying to put 60 terrible minutes against the Northern Illinois Huskies behind it. At No. 8 in the last CFP rankings, their position looks secure if they keep winning. Beating a ranked Army Black Knights team this week would only help, and perhaps further solidify the opportunity to host a first-round game. But it also would help Notre Dame if Texas A&M avoids calamity against Auburn on Saturday, and even more so if the Aggies beat Texas on Nov. 30.

The American Athletic Conference champion (10) could be lurking as a spoiler. If Army shocks Notre Dame on Saturday, beats the UTSA Roadrunners on Nov. 30 and beats the Tulane Green Wave in the AAC title game, it would be hard to deny them a bid at 12–0. The Black Knights might simply swap in for Notre Dame, or they could push out either the Mountain West or Big 12 champ for the fifth automatic bid. 

But Tulane will be hard to beat—the Wave have been dominant after a 1–2 start. In addition to winning out to finish 11–2, Tulane would probably need an upset in the Mountain West to nab the G5 bid.

The Buzzin’ Dozen

Each week The Dash projects the 12-team playoff field as if today were Selection Sunday. As always, the rankings are based on what has actually transpired this season rather than preseason expectations: 

1. Oregon (Big Ten champion, automatic qualifier)
2. Texas (SEC champion, automatic qualifier)
3. SMU (ACC champion, automatic qualifier)
4. Boise State (Group of 5 champion, automatic qualifier) 
5. Ohio State (at-large selection)
6. Indiana (at-large selection)
7. Notre Dame (at-large selection)
8. Georgia (at-large selection)
9. Mississippi (at-large selection)
10. Tennessee (at-large selection)
11. Alabama (at-large selection)
12. BYU (Big 12 champion, automatic qualifier)  

On the bubble: Penn State, Texas A&M, Miami, Clemson, Army, Colorado, Arizona State, Iowa State, Tulane.

First-round games: BYU at Ohio State; Alabama at Indiana; Tennessee at Notre Dame; Mississippi at Georgia.

First-round byes: Oregon, Texas, SMU, Boise State.