Forde-Yard Dash: College Football Playoff Check-In After Week 1

Twelve angry men around the country who saw their teams’ playoff chances take hits with surprising, embarrassing and head-scratching results.

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier has a disastrous opening game. / Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where the Academy Award for best dramatic performance has already been won by James Madison: 

First Quarter: Twelve Angry Men 

The 12-team College Football Playoff is a wellspring of hope and excitement for dozens of fan bases. But as the losses accrue, it also will be a source of discontent for fan bases that see their chances slipping away. Each week, The Dash will identify 12 people dealing with damaged playoff hopes, and gauge their teams’ chances of rebounding from calamity.

Kent Fuchs (1)

The former and now interim president of the Florida Gators already has to handle a budget mess created by his politician successor/predecessor. Now he might have to fire a football coach, too. 

Billy Napier opened his third season as coach of the Gators with a five-kiloton flop, being routed at home by the Miami Hurricanes, 41–17. The Hurricanes might turn out to be very good, but when Florida is operating at anywhere near its peak, no opponent should be dramatically better. Under Napier, now 11–15, several teams have been dramatically better than the Gators.

“I mean, it’s embarrassing, to be quite honest with you,” he said. Florida fans who left The Swamp early wholeheartedly agree.

The party line during last season’s 5–7 debacle was that the Gators were fielding one of the youngest defenses in the country. Now a year older, the defense was shredded yet again—surrendering the most points ever in a Florida home opener and 529 total yards. Meanwhile, Napier again entrusted the offense to Wisconsin Badgers transfer quarterback Graham Mertz, with meager results: 91 passing yards and an interception before being sidelined by a potential concussion.

Facing one of the most difficult schedules in the history of the sport, Napier desperately needs victories the rest of this month. Florida has a rich history of in-season football coach firings, and at the moment, Napier is in prime position to be the next one.

Florida’s playoff chances: You cannot be serious. But the truth is, 0–1 is not fatal.

ACC plaintiffs (2)

The Clemson Tigers and Florida State Seminoles, taking the adversarial legal position that their conference is holding them back and suing for a discounted exit, are 0–2. (Pending the Seminoles’ game Monday night against Boston College.) And it’s a bad 0–2. The Tigers were absolutely routed by the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday, while the Noles were outplayed in Ireland by Georgia Tech as a double-digit favorite.

But, hey, the ratings were good, which might be the only thing these two schools care about. In their efforts to abandon the ACC without having to pay somewhere around a half-billion dollars each, Clemson and Florida State have positioned themselves as not just better than the rest of the league but more valuable as TV properties. There is truth to that, but guess what—people will stop tuning in to see losing teams.

Both Clemson coach Dabo Swinney and FSU coach Mike Norvell might have hitched their wagons to the wrong quarterbacks—Cade Klubnik, who stayed at Clemson, and DJ Uiagalelei, who left Clemson two years ago. After one game each, they’re 13th (Uiagalelei) and 14th (Klubnik) in the ACC in pass efficiency.

Clemson’s playoff chances: A 31-point loss is no way to start. But someone has to win the ACC and take the automatic bid.

Florida State’s playoff chances: We’ll know more after Monday night. The Noles cannot afford to start league play 0–2, especially in an eight-game schedule.

Whit Babcock (3)

The Virginia Tech Hokies athletic director has been on the job for a decade and is in danger of his second straight whiff in replacing program legend Frank Beamer. Justin Fuente had to go after four seasons of .500 football, and now Brent Pry’s third year is off to a dismal start after being upset by the perennially non-threatening Vanderbilt Commodores.

Pry is 10–15, with zero wins over power-conference opponents who finished the season with winning records. But there was a lot of optimism about the veteran Hokies heading into this season (The Dash bought the hype). Then they opened with a Nashville ambush, losing to a Commodores program that hasn’t had a winning season since 2013.

Pry lost to Vanderbilt to open the season and is 10–15 with no wins over power-conference teams that finished the season over .500. / Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Tech started in a 17–0 hole, failing to get stops and aiding Vandy’s early momentum with a midfield interception on its opening drive. The Hokies were a minus-1 turnover margin in the game and still haven’t won a game under Pry in which they lost the turnover battle.

Virginia Tech’s playoff chances: See above with Clemson. Someone has to win the ACC.

Brian Kelly (4)

He was a literal angry man in Las Vegas on Sunday night, pounding the table during his postgame news conference to decry his LSU Tigers’ come-from-ahead loss to Miller Moss and USC. Kelly’s fist pound might have been a bit more performative and calculating than a sheer burst of anger—although he’s plenty capable of those, too. 

The best way to stoke some urgency is to create a crisis, and Kelly might have been doing that. He’s now 0–3 in season openers at LSU, with what could be the toughest SEC ever looming. The Tigers’ defense is better but still gave up two touchdown drives in the last half of the last quarter. Garrett Nussmeier might be good enough at quarterback as the replacement for Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, but still only got LSU in the end zone twice.

LSU’s playoff chances: Of all the first-game losses, this is the least harmful. It came in the final seconds on a neutral field against a ranked opponent that could turn out to be quite good. But there could be losses, plural, ahead in the Southeastern Conference. Somebody is going to make the playoff at 9–3; and LSU might be trending toward that record.

Mike Elko (5)

His debut as the Texas A&M Aggies coach was a home loss in a slog against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish that raises questions about the ceiling of the Aggies’ offense. Yes, the Fighting Irish have an elite defense—especially in the secondary—but A&M ranks 131st out of 132 teams in pass efficiency after one game.

Offensive coordinator Collin Klein and quarterback Conner Weigman both got a lot of offseason praise, but 3.62 yards per play is no way to go through life. Or the SEC. The Aggies will have to find some explosiveness after producing zero plays longer than 18 yards in the opener.

Texas A&M’s playoff chances: This wasn’t a terrible loss by any means, although it came at home. Let’s go ahead and call the Aggies’ Sept. 14 trip to Florida a playoff elimination game for the loser.

Greg Sankey (6)

The SEC commissioner has increasingly positioned himself as the bully of the block in college sports, with Big Ten commish Tony Petitti as his sidekick. But the inevitable lobbying campaign for four or more SEC playoff bids didn’t get off to an overpowering start, with the league going 2–3 against high-level opponents.

Georgia was awesome and Vanderbilt was a surprise. But Florida, A&M and LSU all took losses. The rest of the games were largely inconsequential against overmatched opponents. The SEC will claim it is the toughest league no matter what happens, but it’s useful to keep an eye on what the league does against comparable opponents.

SEC’s playoff chances: As of today, the league probably deserves four bids. (See below.) But it’s obviously a fluid situation.

Tim Walz (7)

The Minnesota governor, Democratic vice presidential nominee and former high-school football coach watched the home-state Gophers become the first 18th-place team in Big Ten history with a home loss to the North Carolina Tar Heels. The rest of the league started 1–0, while Minnesota missed two field goals in a two-point loss. The last missed kick came on the final play, and the stadium prematurely shot off fireworks in anticipation of victory. Whoops.

Walz once was given a game ball by P.J. Fleck after a Gophers win. He might have some second-guessing for the coach after Fleck went with an FCS transfer (Max Brosmer of New Hampshire) at quarterback. That produced the usual Minnesota aerial struggles (166 passing yards, a 122 pass efficiency rating).

Minnesota’s playoff chances: Not terribly likely, but let the cake bake. 

Max Johnson (8)

The North Carolina quarterback suffered a broken leg in the win over Minnesota, ending his season. The game was a struggle for Johnson up until that point, but he still gave the Heels their best chance at that position. Backup Conner Harrell accounted for just 31 yards of offense after coming on in relief.

North Carolina’s playoff chances: It’s hard to lose ground with a road win over a power-conference opponent, but the Johnson injury could be lethal for the Heels.

Johnson suffered a broken leg in the opener, and the Tar Heels’ season may also be broken now. / Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Manchin (9)

The U.S. Senator and former West Virginia Mountaineers football player had to love the festivity and pageantry in the state with the Penn State Nittany Lions coming to Morgantown. Then the game started, and all of the offseason buzz about Manchin’s favorite team faded with a 34–12 loss. 

The Mountaineers weren’t quite ready for the moment against a quality opponent, losing three turnovers and giving up three scoring plays of 40 or more yards. One year after leading the Big 12 in sacks, they produced zero against the Nittany Lions.

West Virginia’s playoff chances: The Big 12 still looks pretty wide open, so dare to dream. But don’t bet your coonskin caps on it.

Brett Yormark (10)

The Big 12 commissioner is working to sell his membership on the Connecticut Huskies as a 17th member. It’s an abundantly easy sell in basketball terms, men and women, and the Northeast presence is enticing in that sport. But football is the hard part, and UConn (as usual) did not hold up its end of the bargain Saturday. The Huskies were blitzed 50–7 by the Maryland Terrapins.

Yormark is making the long play with football, saying the school wouldn’t join the league in that sport until 2031. But you could give UConn until ’41 and The Dash still doubts whether the Huskies would be competitive in that sport. 

Big 12’s playoff chances: The league will get one in. A second bid will be the hard part. 

Phil Knight (11)

The Oregon Ducks rainmaker watched their first game as a Big Ten member turn into an alarming struggle against the FCS Idaho Vandals. The nation’s third-ranked team won 24–14, and it was a three-point game midway through the fourth quarter before a clinching late touchdown.

The Ducks more than doubled the Vandals in total yards and won the turnover battle, but still somehow scored only 24 points. “Different than what we thought it may look like,” was coach Dan Lanning’s assessment of the underwhelming opener.

Oregon’s playoff chances: Dealt no serious harm here. But there certainly was no statement sent by the win, and the Boise State Broncos arrive to present a greater challenge Saturday.

Ducks defensive back Brandon Johnson celebrates his teammates after an interception. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

John Whitmire (12)

The mayor of Houston is presiding over a gridiron dumpster fire. The Houston Cougars were embarrassed by the UNLV Rebels, 27–7 in the debut of new coach Willie Fritz. The Rice Owls, coming off their first six-win season in a decade, were embarrassed by the Sam Houston State Bearkats, 34–14. The Houston Christian Huskies were embarrassed by the SMU Mustangs, 59–7. Something called North American University, an NAIA school in the suburb of Stafford, Texas, was embarrassed 77–0 by the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks—with the second half reduced to two five-minute quarters after the score was 70–0 at halftime.

Throw in the loss by the nearest power, Texas A&M, and it was a laborious Labor Day weekend in East Texas.

Houston-area playoff chances: Only the Aggies need give it the slightest consideration. And even that is a long shot.

The Buzzin’ Dozen

How The Dash would seed the playoff if today were Selection Sunday. (As usual, this is based on actual results to date, not preseason rankings or conjecture. If you played an FCS opponent in Week 1, you’re not up for consideration here.)

• No. 1 seed: Georgia (SEC champion)
• No. 2 seed: Penn State (Big Ten champion)
• No. 3 seed: Miami (ACC champion)
• No. 4 seed: TCU (Big 12 champion)
• No. 5 seed: Notre Dame (at-large selection)
• No. 6 seed: USC (at-large selection)
• No. 7 seed: Georgia Tech (at-large selection)
• No. 8 seed: Vanderbilt (at-large selection)
• No. 9 seed: Ohio State (at-large selection)
• No. 10 seed: Texas (at-large selection)
• No. 11 seed: LSU (at-large selection)
• No. 12 seed: UNLV (Group of 5 champion)

First-round matchups: UNLV at Notre Dame; LSU at USC; Texas at Georgia Tech; Ohio State at Vanderbilt.

First-round byes: Georgia, Penn State, Miami, TCU.