Forde-Yard Dash: College Football Playoff Hopefuls Starting to Separate

Teams like LSU, Missouri, Texas and Ohio State could be on the outside looking in as the season makes its turn to the finish line.

LSU Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier looks on against the Texas A&M Aggies. / Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where bringing cocaine to the stadium is discouraged.

First Quarter: Twelve (or More) Angry People 

The 12-team College Football Playoff is a wellspring of hope and excitement for dozens of fan bases. But as the losses accrue, it also will be a source of discontent for those who see their chances slipping away. Each week, The Dash will identify 12 people dealing with damaged playoff hopes, and gauge their teams’ chances of rebounding from calamity.

James Carville (1)

A toss-up presidential election surely has the longtime Democratic political strategist on edge, but what probably ticks him off more today is the state of the LSU Tigers. They’re 6–2 and on the playoff ropes after collapsing in the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies.

LSU was outscored 31–6 in the final 30 minutes. The Tigers ran the ball 12 times for zero yards in the second half, while giving up 144 yards on the ground. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier threw three interceptions after halftime, all of them in LSU territory, to facilitate short scoring drives for the Aggies.

LSU’s playoff chances: The math is a bit daunting at this point. They have been dealt out of the one-or-fewer losses club, which now numbers 16 in the Power 4 conferences (plus Notre Dame). There’s a solid chance the SEC gets two teams to the finish line at 11–1, and perhaps three at 7–1 or better in league play.

LSU could finish 10–2 and 7–1 if it wins a de facto elimination game against the Alabama Crimson Tide on Nov. 9, and everything thereafter. That might not get the Tigers higher than fourth or fifth in the SEC pecking order, although the league could get four in the 12-team bracket. 

Jon Hamm (2)

There is no actual evidence that former Missouri student Hamm actually cares how the Tigers are currently performing. But if Hamm does care, he is certainly a Mad Man. And has a lot of company. A season of promise is cratering after a second SEC road blowout, this time at Alabama.

Mizzou was not in a good place going into the game after the injury last week to starting quarterback Brady Cook. He tried to play through it but was ineffective. Backup quarterback Drew Pyne—a 23-year-old, fifth-year senior who has played plenty of college football—came on in relief and threw three interceptions in 12 attempts. Missouri didn’t cross the Alabama 40-yard line until its final possession, when the score was 34–0.

Missouri’s playoff chances: There is nothing on the resume that says the Tigers should be in the playoff. And even if they finish 10–2—which seems unlikely—there still might not be anything to recommend them.

Matthew McConaughey (3)

The Texas Longhorns’ “Minister of Culture” might need to become their Minister of Propaganda, because the strength of schedule is not holding up under close inspection. What looked like signature victories at the time over the Oklahoma Sooners and Michigan Wolverines now are just a couple of beatdowns of mediocre-at-best opponents—the Sooners are 4–4 and the Wolverines are 5–3. According to the Sagarin Ratings, Texas’s schedule to date ranks 13th out of 16 Southeastern Conference teams.

To make matters more irritating, ancient rival Texas A&M has risen to the top of the SEC standings. After spending the first half of the season talking about the Longhorns’ SEC arrival and potential takeover, we all might have been focused on the wrong Texas team in the league.

Texas’s playoff chances: No harm done in a close win at the Vanderbilt Commodores. But what will the committee think of the Horns’ body of work when its first rankings are revealed Nov. 5? That will provide some insight into where Texas ranks among one-loss teams heading into its final four games.

Texas wide receiver DeAndre Moore Jr. catches a touchdown while guarded by Vanderbilt Commodores safety Dontae Carter. / Denny Simmons/The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Les Wexner (4)

The Ohio State Buckeyes fan has the family name all over campus, including on the medical center. As one of the major bankrollers of Ohio State’s reported $20 million roster, he and the rest of the Ohio State faithful surely were looking for a more emphatic bounce-back performance than what they got Saturday.

With a week off after losing to the Oregon Ducks, the Buckeyes muddled past the Nebraska Cornhuskers 21–17—and that was a week after the Indiana Hoosiers tore the Huskers apart, 56–7. If Nebraska freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola could pinpoint his downfield passes a bit better, Ohio State could be on full meltdown alert right now. The Buckeyes ran for a measly 64 yards, and their 47 offensive snaps were the fewest in nine years.

Ohio State’s playoff chances: Winning was the most important thing Saturday. But at this point, the Buckeyes have to be slotted fourth among Big Ten playoff contenders behind Oregon, Indiana and the Penn State Nittany Lions. They can fix their strength-of-schedule concerns by beating both Penn State and Indiana—but losing to either could evict them from the league championship race and put them into the muddle of two-loss teams.

Greg Sankey (5) and Tony Petitti (6)

The longer multiple teams stay undefeated in the Big 12 and Atlantic Coast Conference, the more the commissioners of the SEC and Big Ten are likely to bang the strength-of-schedule drum on behalf of their teams. (More justifiably in the SEC than in the Big Ten, it should be noted.) 

The two have already put the CFP selection committee on notice. (“It has to go incredibly well,” Sankey said rather ominously, given the leagues’ authority to change playoff protocol in the future.) If the Big 12 and ACC both have three teams at 11–1 or better at the end of the regular season, that will put SEC and Big Ten teams with two losses in a precarious position. 

The SEC and Big Ten playoff chances: They’re both going to want four bids, but no more than one of them is likely to get four. Texas plays Texas A&M and the Georgia Bulldogs play the Tennessee Volunteers, which means that no more than two SEC teams can reach the end of the regular season with one loss. The Big Ten still could end up with three 12–0 teams—or, probably more to Petitti’s liking, one at 12–0 and three at 11–1. The Dash’s best guess is seven bids between the two leagues.

Jim Phillips (7)

The ACC commissioner has the lowest-ranked undefeated team from a power conference in the AP poll (the Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 18) and the lowest-ranked team with one loss (the SMU Mustangs at No. 20). Nobody knows how closely the CFP selection committee top 25 will mirror the polls, but the ACC is not getting much respect from the sportswriters. Despite beating the 5–1 Syracuse Orange by four touchdowns Thursday night, Pitt moved up only one spot in the rankings and remains behind two-loss Alabama and two-loss LSU. Once again, it’s hard to swim upstream if a team was not ranked before the season.

The ACC’s playoff chances: The champion is obviously in, and a second bid seems entirely plausible at this point. Maybe there is even a third, but that would be heavily contested.

Duke Blue Devils fans (8)

They were given the golden ticket to victory Saturday in a playoff elimination game against SMU—six Mustangs turnovers. They somehow still lost. The would-be winning field goal was blocked at the end of regulation. Another field goal was missed earlier in the fourth quarter. And in overtime, coach Manny Diaz elected to go for the win on a two-point conversion, but the pass was incomplete (amid contact between the defensive back and receiver).

Duke’s playoff chances: It’s now basketball season in Durham, N.C.

Syracuse fans (9)

New head coach Fran Brown scored big in the portal, most notably landing Ohio State evacuee Kyle McCord as his quarterback. McCord piled up big numbers in leading the Orange to a 5–1 start—and then he melted down at Pitt on Thursday night. McCord threw five interceptions, including a mind-boggling three pick-sixes in the first half. It was hard to watch.

Syracuse’s playoff chances: It’s now basketball season there, too.

Navy Midshipmen (10)

Speaking of turnover-related disasters: the best team in the country at protecting the football fell apart in that area against Notre Dame on Saturday, losing five fumbles and an interception as their sublime 6–0 start came to an abrupt change of direction. That, too, was hard to watch. But the brigade did march into MetLife Stadium impressively.

Navy’s playoff chances: Still alive, believe it or not. Being blown out is not good, but it was a nonconference game against a quality opponent. If Navy regroups and makes the American Athletic Conference championship game against an undefeated opponent (Army) or one with one loss (Memphis), it will have a chance at the Group of 5 automatic bid. That seems like a lock to go to either the champion of the Mountain West or the AAC.

Navy Midshipmen react after the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Michigan State Spartans fans (11)

Their team lost to the rival Michigan Wolverines for the third straight year. Their team got in another postgame fight with the Wolverines. Their team was Little Brother-ed in a postgame interview by Michigan tight end Colston Loveland. Things are getting better in East Lansing, Mich., but not fast enough for the Spartans fans.

Michigan State’s playoff chances: They’ve been dead since September. 

UNLV Rebels fans (12)

They showed up in good numbers for their Mountain West Conference showdown with the Boise State Broncos. They saw their defense do the best job anyone has yet this season on superstar running back Ashton Jeanty. But they still couldn’t get the needed victory.

UNLV’s playoff chances: A theoretical rematch with Boise State in the Mountain West title game would offer a path back into playoff contention, but there are some obstacles. Most notably, the Colorado State Rams (3–0) are ahead of the Rebels in the league race with a manageable remaining schedule, and UNLV doesn’t get to play them. 

The Buzzin’ Dozen

Each week The Dash projects the 12-team playoff field as if today were Selection Sunday. As always, the rankings are based on what has actually transpired this season, not preseason predictions. The longer teams like BYU, Iowa State, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Army and Navy stay undefeated, the more interesting this becomes.

1. Oregon Ducks (Big Ten champion, automatic bid)
2. Texas A&M Aggies (SEC champion, automatic bid)
3. BYU Cougars (Big 12 champion, automatic bid)
4. Miami Hurricanes (ACC champion, automatic bid)
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (at-large selection) 
6. Georgia Bulldogs (at-large selection)
7. Indiana Hoosiers (at-large selection)
8. Texas Longhorns (at-large selection)
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (at-large selection)
10. Iowa State Cyclones (at-large selection)
11. Pittsburgh Panthers (at-large selection)
12. Boise State Broncos (Mountain West champion, automatic bid)

On the bubble: Ohio State, Clemson, Tennessee, SMU, Kansas State, Army, Washington State.

First-round matchups: Boise State at Penn State; Pittsburgh at Georgia; Iowa State at Indiana; Notre Dame at Texas.

First-round byes: Oregon, Texas A&M, BYU, Miami.