Forde-Yard Dash: Conference Championship Primer With CFP Stakes

With a 12-team College Football Playoff, there is a lot on the line this weekend for teams trying to get in the bracket, clinch a bye or earn home field advantage.

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney and the Tigers could be a playoff-bid thief if they win the ACC title game this weekend. / Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where you never know when a guy and a dog riding a steer are going to show up on campus. First Quarter: Eleven Teams for 12 Spots. Second Quarter: Ryan Day and the Coaching Carousel. Third Quarter: Stop the Flag-Planting Melees.

Fourth Quarter: A Championship Week of Unprecedented Stakes

In the bygone days of the four-team College Football Playoff, a maximum of five or six teams had something to play for in their conference championship games. With the new 12-team playoff, the number is at least 10 and maybe 11. Getting in the bracket, earning a bye, earning home field—they’re all on the line all over the place. This is going to be fun. A quick Dash breakdown:

Atlantic Coast Conference (31)

The matchup: SMU Mustangs (11–1) vs. Clemson Tigers (9–3), 8 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC), at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. ACC title history: SMU seeking its first, Clemson seeking its 22nd. Line: SMU by 2.5, per DraftKings.

Stakes: This is the most interesting title game in terms of the College Football Playoff. Winner grabs an automatic bid and likely first-round bye. If that winner is Clemson—after being counted out repeatedly—it will knock another team out of the 12-team field. The ACC should get at least two bids in that scenario, with SMU staying in the field and perhaps the Miami Hurricanes as well. If SMU wins, it probably increases the chances of the Canes getting a bid.

Skinny: In conference play, this is a matchup of the top two defenses. SMU has been especially nasty in the front seven, allowing just one opponent to rush for four yards per carry and producing a league-leading 31 sacks in eight ACC games. Clemson has excelled in the turnover department, leading the ACC with a plus-11 margin in eight games.

Dash pick: SMU 23, Clemson 21.

Big 12 Conference (32)

The matchup: Arizona State Sun Devils (10–2) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (10–2), noon ET Saturday (ABC), at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Big 12 title history: Both programs are seeking their first. ASU is in its first season in the league; ISU is in its 29th. Line: Arizona State by 2, per DraftKings.

Stakes: Quite likely a winner-take-all game. The automatic bid goes to the champion, while the loser probably does not make the field and is jettisoned into the bowl rabble. 

Skinny: The blueprint for this game seems pretty straightforward from an Arizona State standpoint—establish battering ram Cam Skattebo on the ground and then utilize Sam Leavitt’s arm in spots against a good Iowa State pass defense. For the Cyclones, striking an offensive balance with its running back tandem and the passing of Rocco Becht is key. Becht’s pass efficiency rating has declined the last three games, but his 13-for-36 struggle in frigid conditions Saturday night against the Kansas State Wildcats is probably a tossout performance. It will be warm in JerryWorld.

Dash pick: Arizona State 27, Iowa State 21.

Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers throws the ball against Georgia during their first meeting in October. / Brett Patzke-Imagn Images

Southeastern Conference (33)

The matchup: Texas Longhorns (11–1) vs. the Georgia Bulldogs (10–2), 4 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC), at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. SEC title history: Texas seeking its first (first season in league), Georgia seeking its 14th. Line: Texas by 2.5, per DraftKings.

Stakes: Both teams are likely in the playoff. Winner gets an automatic bid and assuredly a first-round bye, probably as the No. 2 seed but possibly No. 1 if it’s Texas and the Oregon Ducks lose in the Big Ten game. Loser may drop to one of the bottom four seeds and a first-round road game.

Skinny: Las Vegas certainly is not expecting a repeat of the blitzkrieg the Dawgs put on the Horns in Austin in October. Georgia won that game by 15 but is (for now) an underdog in its home-away-from-home in Atlanta. The Bulldogs have been bedeviled by stretches of casual play, which contributed to two losses (the Alabama Crimson Tide and Mississippi Rebels) and a pair of tense wins (against the Kentucky Wildcats and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets). Facing the No. 1 rushing defense in the league with a puny running game, Georgia will need quarterback Carson Beck to outshine counterpart Quinn Ewers.

Dash pick: Georgia 22, Texas 21.

Big Ten Conference (34)

The matchup: Oregon Ducks (12–0) vs. the Penn State Nittany Lions (11–1), 8 p.m. ET Saturday (CBS), at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Big Ten title history: Oregon seeking its first (first season in league), Penn State seeking its fifth. Line: Oregon by 3.5, per DraftKings.

Stakes: If Oregon wins, it locks up the No. 1 seed and favorite’s mantle for the playoff. If Penn State wins, it might claim the No. 1 seed, depending on what happens in the SEC. The loser is likely to host a first-round game.

Skinny: In conference games, these are the top two offenses in yards per play (Oregon 6.54, Penn State 6.34). But they both have quality defenses as well. The Nittany Lions might have the two biggest game-wreckers in this matchup with defensive end Abdul Carter (10 sacks, 19.5 tackles for loss) and tight end Tyler Warren (more than 1,200 yards receiving, rushing and passing and 10 total touchdowns). But Oregon might have better overall talent. Plus, James Franklin has that whole big game bugaboo to contend with.

Dash pick: Oregon 31, Penn State 24.

Jeanty has a chance to break Barry Sanders’s single-season rushing yard record. / Troy Babbitt-Imagn Images

Mountain West Conference (35)

The matchup: UNLV Rebels (10–2) at Boise State Broncos (11–1), 8 p.m. ET Friday (Fox). MWC title history: UNLV seeking its first, Boise State seeking its sixth. Line: Boise State by 4, per DraftKings.

Stakes: Winner almost certainly grabs the Group of 5 automatic playoff bid, pending some out-of-body performance by the Army Black Knights at the same time Friday night. Loser is out.

Skinny: Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty (2,288 rushing yards and 29 total touchdowns) puts in his final Heisman Trophy audition, but has to do it against the defense that played him best. Jeanty had just 128 yards and a season-low 3.88 yards per carry in a five-point Boise State win in October. UNLV quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams will put some stress on the Broncos defense with his dual-threat capability (more than 2,500 yards total offense despite not starting until the fourth game of the season). UNLV coach Barry Odom’s name is in heavy circulation for other jobs; does that become a distraction this week?

Dash pick: Boise State 35, UNLV 28.

American Athletic Conference (36)

The matchup: Tulane Green Wave (9–3) at Army Black Knights (10–1), 8 p.m. ET Friday (ABC). AAC title history: Tulane is seeking its second title, Army is seeking its first. Line: Tulane by 5.5, per DraftKings.

Stakes: Army is holding out hope that a dominant victory and an unimpressive Mountain West game might vault the Knights into the playoff, but it would probably take a wave of patriotic fervor to influence the committee. Tulane’s loss to the Memphis Tigers last week was a playoff disqualifier.

Skinny: The forecast high for Friday in West Point is 32 degrees, and it likely will be in the 20s at kickoff. We’ll see how much the New Orleans guys really want to be there mashing facemasks with the Army option for three hours. This is the Knights’ biggest non-Navy game in a very long time, but they will have an athletic disadvantage at some positions. Tulane coach Jon Sumrall has the same potential job distractions facing Odom.

Dash pick: Army 19, Tulane 17.

Sun Belt Conference (37)

The matchup: Marshall Thundering Herd (9–3) at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (10–2), 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN). Sun Belt title history: Marshall seeking its first, Louisiana seeking its fourth. Line: Louisiana by 5.5, per DraftKings.

Stakes: None where the playoff is concerned. But it’s a big game for both programs.

Skinny: The vibe is weird around Marshall, where coach Charles Huff is 31–20 in four seasons and playing for a championship and very well might not be retained. He’s on the last year of his contract with no extension in sight. Louisiana, meanwhile, has had its belief in coach Michael Desormeaux validated this season after a couple of rocky years replacing Billy Napier. Marshall might need to generate a couple of takeaways to slow down the top Sun Belt offense in yards per play (6.88).

Dash pick: Louisiana 37, Marshall 28.

Ohio QB Parker Navarro has thrown for just 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this season, but he’s racked up 876 rushing yards on 6.6 yards per carry. / Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

Mid-American Conference (38)

The matchup: Ohio Bobcats (9–3) vs. Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (8–4), noon ET Saturday (ESPN), at Ford Field in Detroit. MAC title history: Ohio is seeking its sixth (and first since 1968), Miami is seeking its 17th. Line: Miami by 2.5, per DraftKings.

Stakes: Just #MACtion glory for two schools that have been there for more than 70 years.

Skinny: In MAC games, these are the top two offenses in yards per play (Miami at 6.80, Ohio at 6.31) and the top two defenses in yards allowed per play (Miami at 4.01, Ohio at 4.41). The RedHawks have won seven straight, the Bobcats have won five straight since an October loss to Miami. Last roundup for Miami’s Brett Gabbert, who has spent six years as a RedHawk.

Dash pick: Miami 27, Ohio 23.

Conference USA (39)

The matchup: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8–4) at Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8–4), 7 p.m. ET Friday (CBS Sports). CUSA title history: WKU is seeking its third, JSU is seeking its first. Line: Jacksonville State by 4.5, per DraftKings.

Stakes: Jacksonville State is trying to win its first FBS league title. WKU is trying to reestablish itself at the top of the league after a seven-year run of watching other programs take the title.

Skinny: Western Kentucky just beat Jax State, 19–17, on Saturday on a 50-yard field goal with three seconds left. Not much should have changed in six days other than the venue (that game was in Bowling Green, this one is in Jacksonville). Jax State is all about the running game while WKU airs it out. Where is JSU coach Rich Rodriguez’s head with his name circulating at West Virginia and possibly elsewhere?

Dash pick: Western Kentucky 25, Jax State 24.

Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week 

Sherrone Moore (40), Michigan Wolverines. His debut season as the full-time coach took on a completely different tenor after the monster upset win in The Horseshoe on Saturday. The 7–5 record is much shinier now. That was a confident, poised team that steadily made a much more talented rival pucker and then crack. Job extremely well done.

Coach Who Should Take the Bus to Work 

Mike Gundy (41), Oklahoma State Cowboys. He went from playing in the Big 12 championship game last year to finishing last (and winless) in the Big 12 this season. Incredible collapse. Even the retirement home radio show crowd can’t be happy with The Stillwater Mullet.

Point After 

When hungry and thirsty and ready to watch ball in Mason, Ohio, The Dash recommends a spot at the bar at The Rusty Bucket. Yeah, it’s a chain, but it serves the purpose. Order the chili, pair it with a Rhinegeist Truth IPA (42) and thank The Dash later.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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