Forde-Yard Dash: Conference Title Races Heat Up for Home Stretch

As the season heads for the back half of November, the race for the CFP automatic bids is heating up.

Texas Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian talks with players ahead of the Longhorns' game against the Florida Gators. / Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (autographed tortillas sold separately in Boulder):

FIrst Quarter: The Eight-Way SEC Tie Scenario

Can half a gigantic conference tie for first place? In the SEC, it just means more teams in contention. And with just three weeks remaining in the regular season, a not-completely-farfetched scenario can lead to an eight-way tie for the league title at 6–2.

Think of the reactions: Paul Finebaum in all his glory, stoking the fires of fan freakouts; Greg Sankey lobbying for seven playoff bids; unholy fan alliances rooting for rivals to help their team by beating someone else; an entire day of SEC Network programming devoted to breaking down tiebreakers, with guest mathematicians from every campus; every penalty flag being scrutinized for evidence of league-office favoritism. This is the mayhem we need in November.

Here is the most reasonable path to getting there:

The Texas Longhorns (1), currently 4–1, lose at the Arkansas Razorbacks Saturday and then defeat the Kentucky Wildcats and Texas A&M Aggies. The Horns losing in Fayetteville is the single biggest upset required to make this work. How 6–2 would be received in Austin: Losing to old rival Arkansas would not go over well, but earning a share of the SEC title in their first season—and clinching that by beating A&M—would be satisfying.

Texas A&M (2), currently 5–1, defeats the Auburn Tigers Nov. 23 and then loses to Texas. How 6–2 would be received in College Station: With great enthusiasm, given the Aggies’ inability to earn any league hardware from the time they entered the SEC in 2012 until now. But losing the outright title against Texas in Kyle Field, in the resumption of a bitter rivalry, would be a tough way to end it.

The Tennessee Volunteers (3), currently 5–1, lose to the Georgia Bulldogs Saturday and then beat the Vanderbilt Commodores Nov. 30. How 6–2 would be received in Knoxville: Quite positively. Another loss to Georgia wouldn’t be fun, but the Vols haven’t won so much as a divisional title since 2007. They’ll take it.

The Georgia Bulldogs (4), currently 5–2, defeat Tennessee Saturday. How 6–2 would be received in Athens: Poorly. After going 26–2 the previous three seasons in SEC play, this is a regression—and being dominated by the Mississippi Rebels Saturday was the final wakeup call to the reality that the program has slipped a notch.  But 6–2 is still a whole bunch better than 5–3 with a loss to the Vols. 

Mississippi (5), currently 4–2, defeats the Florida Gators and Mississippi State Bulldogs. How 6-2 would be received in Oxford: Happily. Ole Miss is the only original member of the SEC West (which came into being in 1992) to never play in the league championship game. Simply earning a piece of something would be a significant step, and the final validation of Lane Kiffin.

The Alabama Crimson Tide (6), currently 4–2, defeat the Oklahoma Sooners and Auburn. How 6–2 would be received in Tuscaloosa: It’s beneath the Saban Standard. But after starting 2–2 and staring into the abyss, rallying for a title share by beating LSU, Auburn and others would feel good. It won’t be time to run Kalen DeBoer out of town just yet.

The LSU Tigers (7), currently 3–2, defeat Florida, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. How 6–2 would be received in Baton Rouge: Nobody is happy there now, after LSU was ripped in Death Valley Saturday by nemesis Alabama. The school might have finally hired someone who can’t win a national title, after the last three coaches all did (Nick Saban, Les Miles, Ed Orgeron). But if the locals can be persuaded not to run Kelly out of town just yet, he can still win out and be part of the massive tie. 

The Missouri Tigers (8), currently 3–2, defeat the South Carolina Gamecocks, Mississippi State and Arkansas. Mizzou winning in the other Columbia would be the other unlikely part of this scenario beyond Texas losing to Arkansas, but it’s hardly impossible. How 6–2 would be received in Columbia: Quite well. Mizzou hasn’t quite lived up to 2024 expectations, with blowout losses to A&M and Alabama and rather fortunate wins over Auburn and Oklahoma. But given Missouri’s customary status, any piece of an SEC title would be cause for celebration.

If all that comes to pass, here would be the records of the great eight against one another: Texas 1–1; Texas A&M 2–1; Tennessee 1–1; Georgia 2–2; Mississippi 1–1; Alabama 2–1; LSU 0–2; Missouri 0–2. 

With the first SEC tiebreaker being head-to-head records among tied teams, that would seemingly put the Aggies and Crimson Tide in Atlanta to play for the league title and a first-round College Football Playoff bye. The question is whether the loser of that game would also get in the field, given the logjam of other SEC teams that wouldn’t have a third loss.

If this gets shuffled down the tiebreaker protocol list, it could stop at the conference records of all SEC opponents of those eight. These are the records so far: LSU 26–23; Alabama 25–23; Texas 20–26; Texas A&M 20–26; Missouri 21–28; Georgia 20–27; Tennessee 19–31; Mississippi 19–31. That could yield an LSU-Alabama rematch of an uncompetitive game in Baton Rouge.

The Buffaloes are averaging more than 36 points per game during their three-game winning streak. / Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

Other Power Conference Races in the Home Stretch

In the ACC (9), the demise of the Miami Hurricanes as an undefeated team now puts the newbie SMU Mustangs (5–0 in league play) in first place with winnable games remaining against Boston College, Virginia and California. Behind them with one loss apiece are the Clemson Tigers (6–1) and Miami (5–1). 

Clemson and the ‘Caines could both finish 7–1 without playing each other, with tiebreakers needed to determine who would play SMU in the championship game if the Mustangs win out. Or, if SMU drops one of the last three, the Mustangs, Clemson and Miami all could finish 7–1 without playing each other. 

All three have played the fourth-place Louisville Cardinals, with SMU and Miami winning and Clemson losing. Current records of their league opponents: Miami 21–28, Clemson 20–29, SMU 18–29.

Meanwhile, the Big 12 (10) has clear sailing toward its ultimate scenario: an undefeated team (the BYU Cougars) vs. the biggest stars in the league (the Colorado Buffaloes as led by Deion Sanders, Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter). If both win out, they’ll meet in Arlington for a high-wattage, high-ratings showdown. And if they both get there and Colorado wins it, the league might get two teams in the playoff.

Of course, it’s not guaranteed. BYU has had a couple great escapes in the final seconds—most recently against the Utah Utes, to the outrage of athletic director Mark Harlan—and has games left against a Kansas Jayhawks team that plays everyone close, the tougher-than-expected Arizona State Sun Devils, and the revived Houston Cougars. Colorado also plays Kansas on the road Nov. 23, with games against Utah and the Oklahoma State Cowboys on either end of that.

The Kansas State Wildcats, Iowa State Cyclones and Arizona State are all lurking one game behind Colorado, hoping for an opportunity. The Wildcats and Cyclones play each other to close out the regular season, which should eliminate the loser (if they haven’t been already.)

And in the Big Ten (11), the most direct route to Indianapolis pits the No. 1 Oregon Ducks (10–0, 7–0) against the winner of the Indiana Hoosiers-Ohio State Buckeyes showdown Nov. 23. Penn State is also lurking, but would lose a tiebreaker with Ohio State. The Nittany Lions’ best-case scenario is for Ohio State to beat Indiana but then lose to Michigan, with Penn State then winning a second-place tiebreaker over the Hoosiers. Conference records of their opponents: Penn State 24–34, Indiana 21–36.

The Buzzin' Dozen 

Each week The Dash projects the 12-team playoff field as if today were Selection Sunday. As always, the rankings are based on what has actually transpired this season, not preseason rankings—which seem to have clearly affected the committee’s thinking in its first release last week:

1. Oregon (Big Ten champion, automatic qualifier)
2. Texas (SEC champion, automatic qualifier)
3. BYU (Big 12 champion, automatic qualifier)
4. SMU (ACC champion, automatic qualifier)
5. Indiana (at-large selection)
6. Ohio State (at-large selection)
7. Tennessee (at-large selection)
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (at-large selection)
9. Penn State (at-large selection)
10. Mississippi (at-large selection)
11. Alabama (at-large selection)
12. Boise State Broncos (Mountain West champion, automatic qualifier)

On the bubble: Miami, Georgia, Texas A&M, Clemson, Colorado, Army Black Knights, Washington State Cougars, Missouri.

First-round games: Boise State at Indiana; Alabama at Ohio State; Mississippi at Tennessee; Penn State at Notre Dame.

First-round byes: Oregon, Texas, BYU, SMU.