Forde-Yard Dash: Five Undefeated Teams With Big Week 5 Challenges

Plus, examining the panic meter on five teams who have an immediate problem to fix.

Ohio State players take the field before a recent game. / Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where there have been 1,991 punts at the FBS level but just 20 returned for touchdowns. First Quarter: Twelve Angry Men. Second Quarter: Group of 5 Realignment Struggle. 

Third Quarter: Now It’s Show Time … More or Less 

Some undefeated teams that look strong have to do a little more this week than they’ve been asked to thus far. The Dash examines five teams taking on an enhanced challenge:

Ohio State Buckeyes (21)

Next up: at the Michigan State Spartans. Why the game matters: It’s the Bucks’ first road game, first Big Ten game and first opponent with a winning record. The line: Ohio State by 25, per DraftKings.

Ohio State has looked like the team Sports Illustrated ranked No. 1 preseason, but it hasn’t played anybody yet. That will change (some) in East Lansing, Mich. After mauling the Akron Zips, Western Michigan Broncos and Marshall Thundering Herd football by a combined 137 points, it’s time to at least play someone from a power conference.

Reason for Buckeye confidence: They are hitting home runs with regularity. They scored four times from 40 yards out or longer against Marshall, twice from 55 yards out or longer against Western Michigan and had two defensive touchdowns against Akron. Ohio State is averaging 8.58 yards per play, third best in the nation. Just about any play could go for six points.

Reason for Buckeye concern: Michigan State has been the most turnover-prone team in the Big Ten, losing three fumbles and seven interceptions. But Ohio State hasn’t forced a turnover since the opening game. The best way for the Spartans to keep this game from getting out of hand is by not giving the Buckeyes cheap points.

Dash prediction: Ohio State 38, Michigan State 10.

Penn State Nittany Lions (22)

Next up: vs. the Illinois Fighting Illini at home. Why the game matters: Penn State’s Big Ten opener is against the last opponent not named Ohio State or Michigan to win in Beaver Stadium, and the Illini come in 4–0. The line: Penn State by 17.5, per DraftKings.

Penn State has—for the moment—fixed its offense, rediscovering the joy of the big play. Playing the Kent State Golden Flashes, a strong candidate for the 134th out of 134 FBS teams, helps. Illinois has a way of stifling offenses and shortening games, holding opponents two touchdowns below their season scoring averages to date.

Reason for Nittany Lion confidence: A year after having just eight plays of 40 yards or longer in 13 games, they have six through three games. Four of the top five receivers are averaging at least 18 yards per catch, whereas last season none of the top seven averaged even 13 per grab.

Reason for Nittany Lion concern: The defense couldn’t get off the field in the first half against the Bowling Green Falcons on Sept. 7, giving up four long scoring drives and not forcing a single three-and-out until the third quarter. A similar lack of early stops Saturday would be problematic in a come-from-behind scenario, given Illinois’s pass rush (10 sacks) and pass defense (10 interceptions, zero touchdown passes allowed).

Dash prediction: Penn State 27, Illinois 21.

Louisville Cardinals (23)

Next up: at the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Why the game matters: The Cards haven’t played a road game and certainly haven’t played a defense of Notre Dame’s caliber. The line: Notre Dame by 6.5, per DraftKings.

Reason for Cardinal confidence: Louisville has been a buttoned-up operation offensively, not turning the ball over yet this season and allowing only two sacks. (There were some penalty issues against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on Saturday.) Against an elite defense, the Cardinals will have to continue avoiding self-inflicted wounds.

Reason for Cardinal concern: Injuries. Receiver Jadon Thompson suffered a season-ending injury Saturday, and expected star transfer wideout Caullin Lacy hasn’t played yet this year after a preseason broken collarbone. It would be pushing his recovery time to be ready for this game, and even if he plays, he might be rusty. The other major concern is an ankle sprain for star defensive back Quincy Riley. “I’m hopeful, but I’m not optimistic,” coach Jeff Brohm said Monday.

Dash prediction: Notre Dame 24, Louisville 17.

Mississippi Rebels (24)

Next up: vs. the Kentucky Wildcats at home. Why the game matters: Ole Miss’s SEC opener, and it’s the best defense the high-octane Rebels have faced. The line: Mississippi by 17.5, per DraftKings.

Reason for Rebel confidence: The national leader in points per game (55.0), yards per game (670.8) and yards per play (8.9) has been an absolute wagon offensively. But don’t discount a defense that is surrendering just 5.5 points per game (which also leads the nation) and 3.5 yards per play.

Reason for Rebel concern: Ole Miss has faced light competition, little adversity and not much of a physical challenge to this point. While Kentucky has had struggles offensively, it presents a step up in class in terms of size and athleticism. Worth remembering the Wildcats had the Georgia Bulldogs on the ropes the entire night Sept. 14.

Dash prediction: Mississippi 27, Kentucky 16.

Oregon Ducks (25)

Next up: at the UCLA Bruins. Why the game matters: First trip outside of the state for the Ducks, first Big Ten conference game, first #BigTenAfterDark game, with kickoff at 11 p.m. ET. The line: Oregon by 24, per DraftKings. 

Reason for Duck confidence: The offensive line coalesced in a blowout of the Oregon State Beavers on Sept. 14, and that corresponded into the entire unit looking like it was supposed to look after a fitful first two games. When in a rhythm, quarterback Dillon Gabriel is a master of the up-tempo, spread offense.

Reason for Duck concern: UCLA showed some improvement in defeat at the LSU Tigers after a grim two-game start to the season. We’ll see whether Oregon backslides at all after following the Civil War triumph with an open date.

Dash prediction: Oregon 41, UCLA 21.

Go Ahead and Panic

Five units that need to be fixed, promptly:

The Oklahoma offense (26)

The Sooners are last in the SEC in yards per game and per play, 15th out of 16 in pass efficiency and last in scrimmage plays of 20 yards or longer. There is now a quarterback controversy, as the expected hanging of the hat on sophomore Jackson Arnold hasn’t worked out well—he was benched in the loss to the Tennessee Volunteers in favor of freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. 

With opponents ranked Nos. 1, 2, 4, 6, 11 and 14 remaining on the schedule, Oklahoma’s debut SEC season has the potential to become a complete wreck. Enjoy the revenue, Sooners.

The Michigan passing game (27)

Beating a ranked team is great, and the Wolverines did so Saturday by coming back to take down the USC Trojans. But the method is not sustainable—they threw for just 32 yards, with no completions longer than 10 yards. The receiving corps will get better when star tight end Colston Loveland returns from injury, but what about the guys doing the passing? Alex Orji can’t, and Davis Warren has a penchant for throwing it to the wrong team.

At 122.8 passing yards per game, Michigan is on pace for its lowest aerial output since 1987. That team went 8–4, which sounds about right for this one unless they figure out something beyond the handoff.

The LSU defense (28)

The Tigers are last in the SEC in yards allowed per play at six, and now star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. is done for the season. LSU has cranked up Bradyn Swinson the past two games, generating five sacks and two forced fumbles, which has helped. But this is a unit that doesn’t cover or hit like many of its predecessors.

The South Alabama Jaguars, scorer of 135 points in their last two games, could be a stealth threat Saturday. And then after that comes Ole Miss.

The North Carolina defense (29)

The program made no players available to the media after the 70-point humiliation against the James Madison Dukes on Saturday and announced there will be no player interviews this week before playing the rival Duke Blue Devils. Mack Brown has historically run one of the most media-friendly programs in the country, so that’s a pretty good indication of where things stand. Or lie. Face down. 

Duke is a pride game on multiple levels, so dramatic improvement is mandatory. The rest of the schedule isn’t that daunting—Carolina doesn’t play the Miami Hurricanes, Clemson Tigers or Louisville. But the 4–0 Pitt Panthers await on Oct. 5, with red-hot QB Eli Holstein. 

The Kansas State passing game (30)

Much the way Oklahoma shrugged off the loss of Gabriel to the transfer portal, thinking that Arnold would be as good, K-State may have miscalculated its QB situation. Will Howard departed for Ohio State with the expectation that backup Avery Johnson was ready for liftoff. He’s run the ball well, as expected, but passing has been inconsistent. Johnson threw a pair of interceptions that led to touchdowns in the loss to the BYU Cougars, and a pair of other drives stalled in the red zone and resulted in field goals.

K-State rarely is dependent upon hero-level QB play. But it certainly needs above-average play at that position to contend for a Big 12 championship game berth.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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