Forde-Yard Dash: How the College Football Playoff Seeding Will Play Out

The SEC and Big Ten likely will get at least half of the 12 spots, if not more, as we sift through all current contenders and plot a course toward the final bracket.

The top-ranked Texas Longhorns could be the lone undefeated team when the College Football Playoff bracket is set. / Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where Kirby Smart is playing bump-and-run sideline coverage. First Quarter: Twelve Angry People.

Second Quarter: Paths to the Playoff

Big Ten commissioner Tony Pettiti and Southeastern Conference boss Greg Sankey are watching, College Football Playoff selection committee. Noooooo pressure at all to tilt the first 12-team playoff bracket toward teams from their conferences, don’t even worry about it. But they’re watching.

“This just has to go incredibly well,” Sankey said last week, after the SEC and Big Ten athletic directors met in Nashville. “This has to be a successful launch.”

“I want to see the selection process, how it works, how the seeding works, how they evaluate and compare teams," Pettiti said.

A cynical person might read those comments, weigh them against recent strong-arm methods by the two leagues, and conclude that the Big Ten and SEC are going to take further control of the playoff if they don’t like what they see. And it seems pretty clear what they’d like to see—a field comprised mostly of teams from their conferences.

The 13-member playoff selection committee, which is chaired in 2024 by Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel, might be justified in feeling a bit insulted here. The process has been undermined by the silly insistence of airing a weekly TV show revealing its rankings leading up to the actual bracket reveal, an unnecessary credibility hit. But in the end, the committee largely filled out the four-team bracket responsibly and fairly, with only the first and last years of the four-team playoff (2014 and ’23) generating true controversy. 

Worth noting the Big Ten got the benefit of the doubt in 2014 (Ohio State over TCU and Baylor) and the SEC got it last year (Alabama over Florida State).

Unless things get really weird—not out of the question, given the arc of this season—the SEC and Big Ten are going to get at least half of the 12 bids, and probably more. They don’t really need to exert additional pressure to get their way. But just in case, the commissioners have let the committee know they’re sitting in judgment.

With that as an unsettling backdrop, The Dash looks at how this all might play out. Let’s sift through all current contenders and plot a course toward the final bracket.

There are eight undefeated power-conference teams, 15 with one loss and an additional 13 with two losses. A team with three losses could still slip into contention via winning one of those leagues, but for purposes of this exercise, let’s keep it to those 36. In particular, let’s drill down on the 23 that are unbeaten or have one loss. That group—plus Notre Dame—forms the most likely pool of contenders for 11 of the 12 playoff spots. 

(If status quo holds, the 12th spot will go to the highest-ranked team from the Group of 5 conferences. Though it should be noted that the top Big 12 team in the AP poll is Iowa State at No. 9 and the top G5 team is Boise State at No. 15, not a wide separation. If the Big 12 cannibalizes itself in the latter half of the season and the Broncos keep winning, could they snatch one of the four first-round byes and relegate the Big 12 champ to a spot outside the top four?)

A league-by-league look: 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Undefeated: Miami Hurricanes (6–0, 2–0 in the league); Pittsburgh Panthers (6–0, 2–0).

One loss: Clemson Tigers (5–1, 4–0); SMU Mustangs (5–1, 2–0); Syracuse Orange (5–1, 2–1); Duke Blue Devils (5–1, 1–1).

Games remaining against each other: Syracuse at Pittsburgh on Oct. 24; SMU at Duke on Oct. 26; Pitt at SMU on Nov. 2; Duke at Miami on Nov. 2; Clemson at Pitt on Nov. 16; Miami at Syracuse on Nov. 30. 

Potential outside spoiler: Louisville Cardinals (4–2, 2–1), who host Miami on Saturday, visit Clemson on Nov. 2 and host Pitt on Nov. 23. Jeff Brohm has pulled some upsets in his time.

Dash championship game projection: Clemson (11–1, 8–0) vs. SMU (11–1, 8–0). The Mustangs picked a great year to money-whip their way into a power conference.

Automatic bid: Clemson.

ACC playoff teams: Clemson (13) and Miami (14). Duke, Pitt and Syracuse should be shuffled out in the coming weeks. The bet here is that Clemson runs the table, as does SMU, while Louisville upsets Miami on Saturday. But the Hurricanes get in at 11–1 while the Mustangs are left out at 11–2.

Big 12

Undefeated: Iowa State Cyclones (6–0, 3–0); BYU Cougars (6–0, 3–0).

One loss: Texas Tech Red Raiders (5–1, 3–0); Kansas State Wildcats (5–1, 2–1); Arizona State Sun Devils (5–1, 2–1).

Games remaining against each other: Texas Tech at Iowa State on Nov. 2; Arizona State at Kansas State on Nov. 16; BYU at Arizona State on Nov. 23; Kansas State at Iowa State on Nov. 30. 

Potential outside spoiler: Utah Utes (4–2, 1–2) hosts both BYU and Iowa State.

Dash championship game projection: Iowa State (11–1, 8–1) vs. BYU (10–2, 7–2). Cougars win tiebreaker vs. Kansas State by virtue of their head-to-head win in Provo.

Automatic bid: Iowa State. 

Big 12 playoff teams: Iowa State (15). There will be losses for everyone down the stretch, and that will work against the league come Selection Sunday. 

Big Ten

Undefeated: Oregon (6–0, 3–0); Penn State (6–0, 3–0); Indiana (6–0, 3–0).

One loss: Ohio State (5–1, 2–1); Nebraska (5–1, 2–1); Illinois (5–1, 2–1).

Games remaining against each other: Nebraska at Indiana on Oct. 19; Nebraska at Ohio State on Oct. 26; Illinois at Oregon on Oct. 26; Ohio State at Penn State on Nov. 2; Indiana at Ohio State on Nov. 23.

Potential outside spoilers: Michigan Wolverines (4–2, 2–1) hosts Oregon on Nov. 2, visits Indiana on Nov. 9 and visits Ohio State on Nov. 30. And the Wisconsin Badgers (4–2, 2–1) host Penn State on Oct. 26 and Oregon on Nov. 16.

Dash championship game projection: Oregon (11–1, 8–1) vs. Ohio State (11–1, 8–1). Not all rematches are bad. This would be the Ducks’ second annual conference title-game rematch of a regular-season thriller, having played Washington twice last year in the Pac-12.

Automatic bid: Oregon.

Big Ten playoff teams: Oregon (16), Ohio State (17), Penn State (18). The road grind will catch the Ducks somewhere—at Michigan or Wisconsin—but they will still make the title game and beat the Buckeyes again. Penn State gets in at 11–1.

SEC

Undefeated: Texas Longhorns (6–0, 2–0).

One loss: Texas A&M Aggies (5–1, 3–0); LSU Tigers (5–1, 2–0); Georgia Bulldogs (5–1, 3–1); Alabama Crimson Tide (5–1, 2–1); Tennessee Volunteers (5–1, 2–1); Missouri Tigers (5–1, 1–1).

Games remaining against each other: Georgia at Texas on Oct. 19; Alabama at Tennessee on Oct. 19; Missouri at Alabama on Oct. 26; LSU at Texas A&M on Oct. 26; Alabama at LSU on Nov. 9; Tennessee at Georgia on Nov. 16; Texas at Texas A&M on Nov. 30.

Potential outside spoiler: Arkansas Razorbacks (4–2, 2–1) host LSU on Oct. 19 and Texas on Nov. 16 and visit Missouri on Nov. 30. 

Dash championship game projection: Texas (12–0, 8–0) vs. Texas A&M (10–2, 7–1). Back-to-back games between two fierce rivals who haven’t played each other since 2011? We’ll take it.

Automatic bid: Texas.

SEC playoff teams: Texas (19), Texas A&M (20), Georgia (21), LSU (22). The Longhorns will be the only undefeated team standing on Selection Sunday. The Aggies will be a big mover during the second half of the season, picking off LSU in College Station. But LSU will still get in by virtue of beating Alabama in Baton Rouge, pushing the Crimson Tide to 9–3 and out of the bracket. The Bulldogs get in at 10–2 with wins over Clemson early and Tennessee late.

The Rest of the Field

The Boise State Broncos (23) get in as the top Group of 5 champion. And so do the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (24), who pick up unexpected quality wins over Navy and Army on the way to 11–1. The road win over Texas A&M to start the season also grows in quality over the final weeks, outweighing the ghastly loss to Northern Illinois. (Yes, that NIU loss will be a major talking point if the Irish keep stacking wins and factor into the playoff race.)

Final Field on Selection Sunday

No. 1 seed: Texas (SEC champion)
No. 2: Oregon (Big Ten champion)
No. 3: Clemson (ACC champion)
No. 4: Iowa State (Big 12 champion)
No. 5: Ohio State 
No. 6: Penn State
No. 7: Georgia 
No. 8: Notre Dame
No. 9: Texas A&M
No. 10: LSU
No. 11: Miami
No. 12: Boise State

First-round games: Boise State at Ohio State; Miami at Penn State; LSU at Georgia; Texas A&M at Notre Dame.

First-round byes: Texas, Oregon, Clemson, Iowa State.