Forde-Yard Dash: How Realignment Impacts College Football Playoff Race

Getting into a conference championship game has never been more important, but figuring out who makes them is more convoluted than ever.

Navy Midshipmen cornerback Dashaun Peele returns an interception for a touchdown against the Charlotte 49ers. / Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where nobody is K-enough—Kentucky, Kennesaw State and Kent State are on a combined 15-game losing streak this season. Two straight for the Wildcats, six straight for the Owls and seven straight for the Golden Flashes. First Quarter: Twelve Angry Fan Bases. Second Quarter: The Thrill Is Gone? Third Quarter: The Thrill Is Back?

Fourth Quarter: What Realignment Hath Wrought

As we head into the second half of the season and churn toward the 12-team College Football Playoff, the confluence of new dynamics in the sport could make for some wild scenarios. Simply put, realignment plus an expanded bracket equals more variables to consider.

Getting into a conference championship game has never been more important, with five automatic bids to be had. But figuring out who makes those championship games is more convoluted than ever due to bigger leagues and fewer common opponents. The Dash takes a swing at sorting out some of the issues that could loom large in the coming weeks.

The lack of overlap among contenders in the ACC (33). The Clemson Tigers are atop the league standings at 5–0. The Miami Hurricanes and SMU Mustangs are tied for second at 3–0. None plays each other in the regular season. The Pittsburgh Panthers, at 2–0, have a game remaining against SMU on Nov. 2 and a game against Clemson on Nov. 16. There is a chance the league ends up with three 8–0 teams and two spots in the championship game.

If it comes down to the fourth tiebreaker—combined records of conference opponents among three teams—that currently favors Pittsburgh, whose opponents are 15–14, and Miami (13–18). Clemson is next at 12–18 then SMU at 11–19. Obviously, a long way to go.

The Oregon Ducks, Indiana Hoosiers and Penn State Nittany Lions don’t play each other in the regular season in the Big Ten (34). All three could finish undefeated, though it would also require all three of them beating the Ohio State Buckeyes, which would guarantee the dismissal of Ryan Day and the looting of Columbus.

If Ohio State beats both Penn State and Indiana, it would be in position for a rematch with the Ducks for the Big Ten title. But the Illinois Fighting Illini and Wisconsin Badgers also have one league loss and don’t play each other—they could create some chaos if either beats Oregon, or if the Badgers beat Penn State.

If the Ducks, Hoosiers and Nittany Lions all finish 9–0, the records of their conference opponents are currently: Oregon 16–20, Penn State 15–22 and Indiana 13–23.

(Caveat: If all three reach 12–0, all three are making the playoff regardless of who plays in the title game.)

The Ducks have already beaten the Buckeyes and have the inside track in the tiebreaker currently. / Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones and BYU Cougars don’t play each other in the Big 12 (35). The two unbeaten there are traveling non-intersecting tracks with five games left to play. BYU has the better path to 12–0. Iowa State could end up in a win-and-you’re-in game against the Kansas State Wildcats to close the regular season, if both the Cyclones and Wildcats keep winning. 

The disparate schedules of the SEC (36) mean there are seven teams with one or zero losses in league play. The Texas A&M Aggies, LSU Tigers, Tennessee Volunteers, Texas Longhorns and Vanderbilt Commodores all have two remaining games against other teams in that group. The Georgia Bulldogs have one. And the Missouri Tigers have none.

If Mizzou can beat the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday in Tuscaloosa, it would do two things: eliminate the Tide from playoff contention and catapult the Tigers toward it.  But Texas A&M at LSU looms even larger this week, with the winner taking over sole possession of first place.

Then there are the Army Black Knights, Navy Midshipmen and the American Athletic Conference championship game (37). Two of the best stories in the sport reside at the service academics in West Point and Annapolis, where both are undefeated. Army is a new addition to the American, which adds a major wrinkle to how that race could play out.

At present, the Black Knights are in first place with a 6–0 league record and just two games left to play—at the North Texas Mean Green (5–2) on Nov. 8 and home against the UTSA Roadrunners (3–4) on Nov. 30. Army also has nonconference games against the Air Force Falcons on Nov. 2, Notre Dame on Nov. 23 and the traditional matchup with Navy on Dec. 14, which is a nonconference game. 

Navy is in second at 4–0, with league games left against the Rice Owls (2–5) on Nov. 2, South Florida Bulls (3–4) on Nov. 9, Tulane Green Wave (5–2) on Nov. 16 and East Carolina Pirates (3–4) on Nov. 29. The Midshipmen also play Notre Dame this Saturday.

As it stands today, the most likely AAC title game matchup is Army against the winner of the Tulane-Navy game. That championship game is scheduled for Dec. 6 at the home field of the team that finishes first in the regular season—and other than the pandemic year, neither Army nor Navy has hosted an on-campus game against the other since World War II.

The Black Knights and Midshipmen could play on consecutive weeks, with the second game not even factoring into playoff consideration. The field would be set on Dec. 8. If either service academy beats Notre Dame, that would be a huge addition to its playoff résumé. If both beat Notre Dame and remain undefeated, the winner of Army-Navy Game 1 would be a lock for the playoff.

Obviously, that’s all still a long way from happening. Army’s path to the AAC title game is shorter and smoother. Navy has a better résumé thanks to beating the Memphis Tigers. The longer both stay in the picture, the more interesting (and unwieldy) this becomes.

Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week 

Jake Dickert (38), Washington State Cougars. While nobody has been paying attention, the Cougars keep winning. They’re 6–1 in their first season after being left for dead by their former Pac-12 brethren and left behind by star quarterback Cam Ward. Dickert has done incredible work in two different sets of difficult circumstances—the first taking over after Nick Rolovich was fired in a COVID-19 protocol showdown, and now after the Pac-12’s disintegration. If you want someone who can keep calm and carry on through a storm, Dickert is your guy.

Coach Who Should Ride the Bus to Work 

Brent Brennan (39), Arizona Wildcats. He took over a team with one of the best pass-and-catch combinations in the country in quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan. It has been a struggle. Arizona is 3–4, has lost three straight and has had declining scoring in three straight games—from 23 to 22 to 19 to seven Saturday in a home shellacking from the Colorado Buffaloes. Fifita has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, and McMillan still hasn’t caught a TD since the season opener.

Point After 

The Dash was recently gifted with a Beer of the Month subscription, one of the great humanitarian gestures ever. The first shipment arrived over the weekend. The football may be quite bad in the state of Oklahoma at present, but the beer is quite good. When thirsty in Oklahoma City, order a Frickin’ Hazer Beams Pale Ale from Roughtail Brewing Company (40) and thank The Dash later.