Forde-Yard Dash: Making Sense of College Football Playoff Scenarios

After an eventful Week 13, the bubble is all but gone and there are 13 options for 12 places. Here is what is at stake in each conference.

Arizona State fans celebrate with Sun Devils running back Jason Brown Jr. after beating BYU. / Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (post-Saban counseling sold separately in Tuscaloosa):

First Quarter: The Field Is Set … Until More Hell Breaks Loose

Parity has collided with opportunity, and the result is the greatest season-ending frenzy we’ve ever experienced. That’s what Saturday constituted in the sport. This isn’t quite 2007, when everyone lost two or more games and the No. 2 ranking was actually cursed, but it’s not far off.

A 12-team College Football Playoff plus a deep cast of good-not-great teams has spread both playoff fever and upset vulnerability nationwide. No fewer than five teams forfeited control of their playoff destiny Saturday, a chain-reaction meltdown that resembled a bunch of golfers on the leaderboard bogeying their way through the back nine on Sunday.

Everyone was throwing up on their shoes. 

Yet, when the earth stopped shaking Saturday night and the fans stopped storming fields from Arizona to Florida, the playoff race is now downright … orderly.

The bubble is all but gone. What’s left are 13 options for 12 places. Of course, another weekend like this past one could reopen a Pandora’s box of possibilities—three-loss teams in the tournament?—but for now the invite list looks firm:

The Big Ten (1) is sitting on a four-team jackpot, having gotten the Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes, Penn State Nittany Lions and Indiana Hoosiers this far with a total of three losses between them. All four are favored by at least 17 points in their regular-season finales. And given the dearth of bubble teams, as many as three of them (Oregon, Ohio State and maybe Penn State) could all afford a loss and still stay in the bracket.

The Southeastern Conference (2) has been downsized to three playoff teams after The Night That Drove Ol’ Dixie Down. The dismissal of the Alabama Crimson Tide was the most shocking result of the day, being routed 24–3 by an Oklahoma Sooners team that hadn’t beaten an FBS team since September. Before that, the Mississippi Rebels completed the triple crown of bad losses—the Kentucky Wildcats, the LSU Tigers and now the Florida Gators—to drop from contention. And the nightcap was the Texas A&M Aggies’ four-overtime loss to an Auburn Tigers program that has been a dysfunctional mess for five seasons—but is always capable of producing some mayhem in Jordan-Hare Stadium.

What remains: the Georgia Bulldogs, Texas Longhorns and Tennessee Volunteers. Georgia already has clinched a spot in the SEC championship game and will play the winner of Texas-Texas A&M. Tennessee, after its fans and some media that cover the team spent last week prematurely caterwauling about Indiana, had its path paved by its SEC peers. Texas is in by virtue of its record at this point, not resume.

(Texas A&M could yet play an interesting role that disrupts the bracket. More on that later.)

The Atlantic Coast Conference (3) could be a two-bid league now, benefiting from the SEC cannibalization, if both the SMU Mustangs and Miami Hurricanes reach the league title game at 11–1. But there is a third option—and the lone lurking bubble team—in the 9–2 Clemson Tigers. They have a quality-win opportunity Saturday against the rival South Carolina Gamecocks that could give them a shot even if they don’t make the ACC championship game.

Best-case scenario for the ACC: Either SMU or Miami wins the league at 12–1; the loser of a close title game ends up 11–2; and Clemson finishes 10–2. If an upset imperils a team currently in the bracket next week, the ACC could have a shot at three teams.

Another factor that could help the league’s standing: a strong showing in four rivalry games vs. the SEC this weekend. In addition to Clemson-South Carolina, the Louisville Cardinals play Kentucky; the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets play Georgia; and the Florida State Seminoles play Florida (don’t get your hopes up in that one, ACC).

The Big 12 (4) strongly resembles a one-big league, and even its champion could fall outside the protected top four that earn first-round byes. The two teams atop the standings both went down at the same time Saturday afternoon—the Colorado Buffaloes to the Kansas Jayhawks, and the BYU Cougars to the Arizona State Sun Devils, the latter a two-field-storm carnival ending. That was peak Big 12.

There are nine—yes, nine—teams still with a chance to make the title game in the final weekend. Arizona State (9–2) and the Iowa State Cyclones (9–2) have the inside track, but chaos never sleeps in this league.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5) need to handle a road game against the rival USC Trojans on Saturday. Never say never, but the Irish have been playing on a much higher plane than USC for the past two months. It’s possible that Notre Dame (10–1) could even absorb a loss and stay in the bracket, but that would be tempting fate. 

The Group of 5 (6) champion is a lock, with the Boise State Broncos solidifying their status as the top contender. They’re in the Mountain West Conference title game, probably against the UNLV Rebels. But to maintain status as the primary G5 team, they also need to beat the Oregon State Beavers on Saturday. UNLV or the Tulane Green Wave–Army Black Knights winner of the American Athletic Conference title game looms as the alternative. 

So the most likely bracket as of now is comprised of four from the Big Ten, three from the SEC, two from the ACC, one from the Big 12, Notre Dame and the G5 autobid. But there is one other scenario that regularly comes into play in the NCAA basketball bracket: a bid thief (7).

The potential bid thief is Texas A&M. Right now, the 8–3 Aggies are out. But if they beat Texas on Saturday and beat Georgia in the SEC title game, they’d grab the automatic SEC slot and bump someone else from the field. If A&M makes it to Atlanta, Indiana and Texas might be the two teams rooting hardest against them.

Other bracket dynamics that appear to be developing:

There likely will be multiple cold-weather games (8). If Oregon wins the Big Ten, Ohio State and Penn State could be positioned to host first-round games on campus on either Dec. 20 or 21. Notre Dame is positioned to do the same. Fans in those locales have been hankering for years to get warm-weather teams in their backyard for winter football, and this could be their chance.

Among those who would figure to be the least enthusiastic about a potential snow-and-cold road game: Miami and Arizona State. They don’t do winter in those locales. The best outcome for both the Hurricanes and Sun Devils would be to win their league’s automatic bids and hope that lands them in the top four, earning a first-round bye and a trip to a bowl site for a quarterfinal. Three of those are indoors (the Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl) and the fourth is in Southern California at the Rose Bowl.

Texas (9) would seem to be the most likely free-faller with a loss. Right now, the Longhorns lead the SEC at 6–1 and 10–1 overall, but they also have no quality wins. If they lose to Texas A&M on Saturday and miss the SEC title game, they could fall behind the other two-loss playoff teams—perhaps behind a 10–2 Clemson as well. Beating the Aggies would at least put something on the resume, and if Texas finishes 11–2 with both losses to Georgia, that’s probably good enough to stay in the field.

So, yeah, for multiple reasons the resumption of that Lone Star State rivalry in College Station, Texas, is simply massive.

If The Dash’s current bracket comes to fruition in two weeks, we will have playoff teams that lost to the Northern Illinois Huskies (10), Arkansas Razorbacks, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Cincinnati Bearcats and Texas Tech Red Raiders. Parity meets opportunity, indeed.

The Buzzin’ Dozen 

The Dash’s current playoff structure. As always, this is based on the premise that today is Selection Sunday, not a projection of what will be. The Dash is slowly warming to Penn State, but still nowhere near as enamored as the selection committee or the pollsters:

1. Oregon (Big Ten champion, automatic bid)
2. Georgia (SEC champion, automatic bid) 
3. SMU (ACC champion, automatic bid)
4. Boise State (Group of 5 champion, automatic bid)
5. Ohio State (at-large selection)
6. Notre Dame (at-large selection)
7. Texas (at-large selection)
8. Penn State (at-large selection)
9. Tennessee (at-large selection)
10. Miami (at-large selection)
11. Indiana (at-large selection)
12. Arizona State (Big 12 champion, automatic bid)

On the bubble: Clemson.

First-round games: Arizona State at Ohio State; Indiana at Notre Dame; Miami at Texas; Tennessee at Penn State.

First-round byes: Oregon, Georgia, SMU, Boise State.