Forde-Yard Dash: Mapping Out the Strength-of-Schedule Debate

With the 12-team College Football Playoff looming, the nonconference slate will be more important than ever.

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey will stump for his conference in the College Football Playoff berth race. Here is how the schedule actually looks. / Denny Simmons/Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (quarterback buyer’s remorse sold separately in Tallahassee). First Quarter: The Buzzin’ Dozen.

Second Quarter: Let the Strength-of-Schedule Debate Begin

They will cite rankings. They will cite past precedent. They will cite the former players and coaches who occupy the TV chairs on the big Saturday shows. They will chant the strength-of-schedule mantra for months on end.

Greg Sankey and Tony Petitti will try to swing the same big sticks they did in bullying the rest of FBS into a favorable revenue share of the new playoff contract. The Big Ten and SEC will line up their arguments for why they deserve more bids than any other leagues to the College Football Playoff. They’ll likely be right—there is every reason to assume that those will be the two strongest conferences. But we know what assuming does, right?

The only fair way to judge who is playoff-worthy is to let the season play out and see who wins and who loses, particularly in nonconference games.

Last season, the luckless ACC fared quite well against the SEC, winning seven out of 12 head-to-head matchups. But the CFP selection committee defaulted to SEC power in the end, choosing that league’s champion (the Alabama Crimson Tide) over the ACC champ (the Florida State Seminoles) for the four-team field. This season, with more teams to select and seed, and with the Big Ten and SEC both making the strongest expansion additions, the sorting process becomes more complicated and nuanced. 

To help set the baseline for the arguments to come, The Dash has the data on all the nonconference scheduling.

SEC (13)

Percentage of nonconference games against Power 4 opponents: 31.9, sixth-highest among nine* FBS leagues.

(*With due empathy and respect for the hollowed-out husk of the Pac-12, The Dash isn’t going to expend a number on a zombie league consisting of the Oregon State Beavers and Washington State Cougars.)

Percentage against Group of 5 opponents: 45.3, fifth.

Percentage against FCS opponents: 23.9, third.

Percentage of nonconference games at home: 81.3, second.

Percentage on the road: 14.1, ninth. 

Percentage at neutral sites: 4.7, second.

Number of league games: eight.

Average number of games against Power 4 opponents, conference and nonconference combined: 9.25, fourth.

Credibility games: Georgia vs. Clemson; Notre Dame at Texas A&M; LSU vs. USC; Texas at Michigan; Alabama at Wisconsin; Tennessee vs. North Carolina State; Miami at Florida; Arkansas at Oklahoma State; Florida at Florida State; South Carolina at Clemson; Louisville at Kentucky.

Strongest noncon schedule: Florida plays three Power 4 opponents (Miami, Central Florida and Florida State). Adding that onto the hardest league slate ever is cruel and unusual.

Weakest noncon schedule: Oklahoma plays Temple, Houston, Tulane and Maine. Throw out the record books when the Black Bears and Sooners get together.

Big Ten (14)

Percentage of nonconference games against Power 4 opponents: 27.8, ninth out of nine FBS leagues.

Percentage against Group of 5 opponents: 48.2, tied for second.

Percentage against FCS opponents: 24.1, second.

Percentage of nonconference games at home: 81.5, first.

Percentage on the road: 14.8, eighth.

Percentage at neutral sites: 3.7, fourth.

Number of league games: nine.

Average number of games against Power 4 opponents, conference and nonconference combined: 9.83, second.

Credibility games: North Carolina at Minnesota; Penn State at West Virginia; USC vs. LSU; Texas at Michigan; Notre Dame at Purdue; Boise State at Oregon; Iowa State at Iowa; Kansas at Illinois; Colorado at Nebraska; Alabama at Wisconsin; UCLA at LSU; Rutgers at Virginia Tech; Notre Dame at USC.

Strongest noncon schedule: USC plays LSU, Utah State and Notre Dame. Combine that with five Big Ten road games (albeit one of them across town, against UCLA) and it’s a gonzo entry into the Big Ten.

Weakest noncon schedule: Ohio State plays Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall. Tearing a page right out of the Michigan 2022–23 playbook.

ACC (15)

Percentage of nonconference games against Power 4 opponents: 38.2, second-highest out of nine FBS leagues.

Percentage against Group of 5 opponents: 38.2, seventh.

Percentage against FCS opponents: 23.5, fourth.

Percentage of nonconference games at home: 64.7, third.

Percentage on the road: 30.9, seventh.

Percentage at neutral sites: 4.4, third.

Number of league games: eight.

Average number of games against Power 4 opponents, conference and nonconference combined: 9.53, third.

Credibility games: Clemson vs. Georgia; Miami at Florida; North Carolina at Minnesota; California at Auburn; North Carolina State vs. Tennessee; Mississippi at Wake Forest; Boston College at Missouri; TCU at SMU; West Virginia at Pittsburgh; Rutgers at Virginia Tech; Louisville at Notre Dame; Stanford at Notre Dame; Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech; Florida State at Notre Dame; South Carolina at Clemson; Florida at Florida State; Louisville at Kentucky; Georgia Tech at Georgia.

Strongest noncon schedule: Georgia Tech plays Notre Dame, Georgia, Georgia State and VMI. The Yellow Jackets’ final five games: the Fighting Irish, at Virginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina State, at the Bulldogs.

Weakest noncon schedule: Syracuse plays Ohio, Holy Cross, UNLV and Connecticut. Playing at UNLV in October is a weird one.

Big 12 (16)

Percentage of nonconference games against Power 4 opponents: 35.4, third-highest out of nine FBS leagues.

Percentage against Group of 5 opponents: 35.4, eighth.

Percentage against FCS opponents: 29.2, first.

Percentage of nonconference games at home: 60.4, fourth.

Percentage on the road: 39.6, sixth.

Percentage at neutral sites: 0.0.

Average number of games against Power 4 opponents, conference and nonconference combined: 10.06, first.

Credibility games: Penn State at West Virginia; BYU at SMU; Houston at Oklahoma; Mississippi State at Arizona State; Iowa State at Iowa; Colorado at Nebraska; Arkansas at Oklahoma State; Kansas at Illinois; West Virginia at Pittsburgh; TCU at SMU; UCF at Florida.

Strongest noncon schedule: West Virginia plays a pair of power-conference opponents in Penn State and Pitt, with a walkover at Albany in between. (Both Colorado and Oklahoma State might be playing with fire by opening against the two FCS championship game finalists from 2023, North Dakota State and South Dakota State, respectively.)

Weakest noncon schedule: Texas Tech plays Abilene Christian, at Washington State and North Texas. With the Cougars newly downsized out of the power conference club, the Red Raiders are the only Big 12 team without such an opponent in the non-league slate. 

(Utah-Baylor and Arizona-Kansas State are both nonconference games this season, because expansion.)

American Athletic Conference (17)

Percentage of nonconference games against Power 4 opponents: 28.6, eighth highest out of nine FBS leagues.

Percentage against Group of 5 opponents: 48.2, tied for second.

Percentage against FCS opponents: 23.2, tied for fourth.

Percentage of nonconference games at home: 50, seventh.

Percentage on the road: 42.9, fifth.

Percentage at neutral sites: 7.1, first.

Average number of games against Power 4 opponents, conference and nonconference combined: 1.14, ninth.

Credibility games: UTSA at Texas; South Florida at Alabama; Florida Atlantic at Michigan State; Temple at Oklahoma; Kansas State at Tulane; Charlotte at North Carolina; Tulane at Oklahoma; Oklahoma State at Tulsa; North Texas at Texas Tech; UAB at Arkansas; Charlotte at Indiana; Rice at Houston; East Carolina at Liberty; Memphis at Florida State; Navy at Air Force; Miami at South Florida; Air Force at Army; Army vs. Notre Dame. (Army-Navy is a nonconference game.)

Strongest noncon schedule: Tulane plays Kansas State and Oklahoma in consecutive weeks, plus Louisiana-Lafayette and Southeastern Louisiana.

Weakest noncon schedule: East Carolina’s Save Mike Houston plan consists of Norfolk State, Old Dominion, Appalachian State and Liberty. The latter two certainly aren’t easy, but there are no Power 4 opponents.

Mountain West (18)

Percentage of nonconference games against Power 4 opponents: 31.7, fifth-highest out of nine FBS leagues.

Percentage against Group of 5 opponents: 46.7, third.

Percentage against FCS opponents: 21.7, eighth.

Percentage of nonconference games at home: 55, fifth.

Percentage on the road: 45, fourth.

Percentage at neutral sites: 0.0.

Average number of games against Power 4 opponents, conference and nonconference combined: 1.58, sixth.

Credibility games: Fresno State at Michigan; UCLA at Hawaii; Wyoming at Arizona State; Colorado State at Texas; UNLV at Houston; Boise State at Oregon; Utah State at USC; Air Force at Baylor; Colorado at Colorado State; Nevada at Minnesota; San Diego State at Cal; Utah at Utah State; UNLV at Kansas; BYU at Wyoming; Syracuse at UNLV; Fresno State at UCLA; Stanford at San Jose State.

Strongest noncon schedule: UNLV takes on three-power four opponents in Houston, Kansas and Syracuse. 

Weakest noncon schedule: Hawaii plays five non-league games, two of which are against FCS opponents (Delaware State and Northern Iowa) and one (Sam Houston) that moved up to FBS last year. The other two are UCLA and Washington State.

(The Mountain West plays a lot of games against both Oregon State and Washington State that are non-league matchups … for now.)

Sun Belt (19)

Percentage of nonconference games against Power 4 opponents: 33.9, fourth-highest out of nine FBS leagues.

Percentage against Group of 5 opponents: 42.9, sixth.

Percentage against FCS opponents: 23.2, tied for fourth.

Percentage of nonconference games at home: 51.8, sixth.

Percentage on the road: 46.4, third.

Percentage at neutral sites: 1.7, sixth.

Average number of games against Power 4 opponents, conference and nonconference combined: 1.36, seventh.

Credibility games: Appalachian State at Clemson; Boise State at Georgia Southern; Marshall at Virginia Tech; James Madison at North Carolina; Virginia at Coastal Carolina; Virginia Tech at Old Dominion; Vanderbilt at Georgia State; Arizona State at Texas State; Tulane at Louisiana-Lafayette; South Florida at Southern Mississippi.

Strongest noncon schedule: Marshall visits both Virginia Tech and Ohio State. (For what it’s worth, the Thundering Herd has beaten Notre Dame and the Hokies the past two seasons.)

Weakest noncon schedule: Coastal Carolina plays Jacksonville State, William & Mary, Temple and a Virginia team that has gone 6–16 the past two seasons.

Mid-American (20)

Percentage of nonconference games against Power 4 opponents: 47.9, highest out of nine FBS leagues.

Percentage against Group of 5 opponents: 29.2, ninth.

Percentage against FCS opponents: 22.9, seventh.

Percentage of nonconference games at home: 41.7, ninth. 

Percentage on the road: 58.3, first.

Percentage at neutral sites: 0.0.

Average number of games against Power 4 opponents, conference and nonconference combined: 1.92, fifth.

Credibility games: Miami Ohio at Northwestern; Ohio at Syracuse; Cincinnati at Miami Ohio; Toledo at Mississippi State; Central Michigan at Illinois; Northern Illinois at North Carolina State; Western Michigan at Marshall; San Diego State at Central Michigan.

Strongest noncon schedule: Kent State is at Penn State, Tennessee and Pittsburgh, with St. Francis thrown into the middle of that meat grinder as a respite.

Weakest noncon schedule: Toledo is home against Duquesne and Massachusetts to start, then at Mississippi State and Western Kentucky.

Conference USA (21)

Percentage of nonconference games against Power 4 opponents: 30, seventh-highest out of nine FBS leagues.

Percentage against Group of 5 opponents: 50, first.

Percentage against FCS opponents: 20, ninth.

Percentage of nonconference games at home: 45, eighth.

Percentage on the road: 52.5, second.

Percentage at neutral sites: 2.5, fifth.

Average number of games against Power 4 opponents, conference and nonconference combined: 1.2, eighth.

Credibility games: Florida International at Indiana; East Carolina at Liberty; Coastal Carolina at Jacksonville State; Liberty at Appalachian State; FIU at Florida Atlantic; Duke at Middle Tennessee; Tulsa at Louisiana Tech; Toledo at Western Kentucky; Western Kentucky at Boston College; New Mexico at New Mexico State.

Strongest noncon schedule: Western Kentucky plays two Power 4 opponents, and one of them is Alabama. (The other is Boston College, so maybe that balances it out a bit.) A home game against MAC big dog Toledo will also be a challenge.

Weakest noncon schedule: Liberty, of all programs, is one of just two in C-USA that doesn’t play a power-conference opponent. The slate: Campbell, East Carolina, Appalachian State and UMass. That does a disservice to a roster of players who should be good enough to give some Power 4 school a game. (The Flames didn’t play a power-conference team last season either and still were rewarded with a New Year’s Six bowl bid, one of the poorer decisions the CFP selection committee has ever made.)