Forde-Yard Dash: Nemesis Games to Watch With Lopsided Recent Advantages

Seven matchups in Week 10 have the makings of trap games for teams that have won nearly all of the latest meetings.

Could Ohio State coach Ryan Day and the Buckeyes be walking into a trap game Saturday at Penn State? / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (next-level fake field goals sold separately at BYU). First Quarter: Twelve (Or More) Angry People. Second Quarter: Each Conference’s Ad for the CFP. Third Quarter: Ten Secrets of Highly Successful Teams.

Fourth Quarter: Nemesis Games

The first Saturday in November is loaded with games in which one side has had a lopsided recent advantage over the other. The Dash examines the mismatches, and appraises whether the tables can be turned this year:

Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions (31)

The hammer: Ohio State. The nail: Penn State. When: Noon ET Saturday (Fox). Recent series history: Buckeyes have won 11 of the last 12. Line: Ohio State by 3.5, per DraftKings. 

Skinny: The Dash has seen this movie before—Buckeyes look vulnerable, Nittany Lions look capable … and then Ohio State wins as usual to extend James Franklin’s scarlet-and-gray torment. Penn State’s offense could look different if quarterback Drew Allar can’t go; backup Beau Pribula played great in relief against the Wisconsin Badgers, but he threw a couple of passes into tight windows that might end up in the wrong hands against Ohio State’s secondary.

Dash pick: Ohio State 23, Penn State 19.

Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (32)

The hammer: Georgia. The nail: Florida. When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC). Recent series history: Bulldogs have won six of the last seven. Line: Georgia by 16.5, per DraftKings.

Skinny: Florida has played better all-around over its last four games (3–1) than its first three (1–2), raising at least a flicker of hope in what has become a dismal series against the tyrannical Kirby Smart. Freshman quarterback DJ Lagway has the athleticism to elude some of the Georgia pressure—but probably not all of it, and he could be forced into some mistakes. If the Dogs maintain their fire from the Texas Longhorns game, this may get out of hand. 

Dash pick: Georgia 31, Florida 17.

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans (33)

The hammer: Michigan State. The nail: Indiana. When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday (Peacock). Recent series history: Spartans have won 12 of the last 15. Line: Indiana by 7.5, per DraftKings. 

Skinny: This is the first stop on the Hoosiers’ ambitious, season-ending revenge tour. After playing the Spartans for the Old Brass Spittoon—a must-have home accessory—they take on Michigan (2–42 record since 1967); Ohio State (29 straight losses); and Purdue (three straight losses in the Old Oaken Bucket game). Indiana may not have the goods to win them all, but it can get this first one—especially if quarterback Kurtis Rourke is cleared to play after thumb surgery.

Dash pick: Indiana 35, Michigan State 24.

Louisville Cardinals at Clemson Tigers (34)

The hammer: Clemson. The nail: Louisville. When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN). Recent series history: Tigers have won all eight meetings since the Cardinals joined the ACC. Line: Clemson by 10.5, per DraftKings. 

Skinny: The Tigers are on a heater, winning six straight, all by 16 points or more. The Cardinals are a quality opponent and have played well on the road, beating the Virginia Cavaliers and Boston College Eagles, and losing to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish by a touchdown. But Louisville’s defense isn’t producing many takeaways and could get trucked by Cade Klubnik & Co.

Dash pick: Clemson 41, Louisville 28. 

Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks (35)

The hammer: Texas A&M. The nail: South Carolina. When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC). Recent series history: Aggies have won nine out of 10 since joining the SEC in 2012. Line: Texas A&M by 2.5, per DraftKings. 

Skinny: Texas A&M is on a roll, but the Gamecocks are a dangerous home underdog—which is reflected in the line. South Carolina can challenge the A&M running game and create a lot of havoc up front defensively, putting pressure on quarterback Marcel Reed. Giving South Carolina an extra week to prepare only adds to the trapadelic feel of this game.

Dash pick: South Carolina 24, Texas A&M 22.

Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers (36)

The hammer: Tennessee. The nail: Kentucky. When: 7:45 p.m. ET Saturday (SEC Network). Recent series history: Volunteers have won 37 of the last 40. Line: Tennessee by 16.5, per DraftKings. 

Skinny: Kentucky is playing bad football, on a three-game losing streak. Tennessee is playing good football and coming off an open date, providing the Vols the chance to come down from the clouds after beating the Alabama Crimson Tide. There are no readily apparent stats that point to the Wildcats having a chance here.

Dash pick: Tennessee 31, Kentucky 13.

Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs (37)

The hammer: TCU. The nail: Baylor. When: 8 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN2). Recent series history: TCU has won eight of the last nine, most memorably with the fire-drill field goal that kept their College Football Playoff run alive in 2022. Line: Baylor by 3, per DraftKings. 

Skinny: The Bears have discovered their offense, with quarterback Sawyer Robertson accounting for 585 yards and nine touchdowns over the past two games. The Frogs have also bounced back of late, winning two in a row. Winning keeps marching toward a late-season revival after some trying times in the first half of the year.

Dash pick: Baylor 40, TCU 35.

Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week 

Brian Bohannon (38), Kennesaw State Owls. The Dash honestly isn’t sure whether Bohannon has a comp car at the newest FBS program. But after his winless team shocked undefeated Liberty to douse the Flames’ playoff hopes, get the man a luxury vehicle for at least a week. 

Coach Who Should Take the Bus to Work 

Mark Stoops (39), Kentucky Wildcats. Since upsetting the Ole Miss Rebels on the road to end September, everything has fallen apart for Stoops’s troops. There was a home loss to the Vanderbilt Commodores, followed by a blowout loss to Dead Man Walking Billy Napier and Florida, followed by a two-touchdown home loss to a downtrodden Auburn Tigers team. Tigers coach Hugh Freeze didn’t even show up in Lexington, Ky., until the day of the game after falling ill earlier in the week. At 3–5, Kentucky is in serious danger of not making a bowl for the first time since 2015.

Point After 

When thirsty in the highbrow-but-beautiful Ivy League town of Princeton, N.J., The Dash recommends a visit to The Alchemist & Barrister (40). It’s a pub with character in a perfectly quaint downtown, not far from the gorgeous campus of Princeton University. (You can almost feel Albert Einstein, F. Scott Fitzgerald and Woodrow Wilson walking the grounds.) Order an Evil Twin IPA, from the New York brewery of the same name, and thank The Dash later.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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