Forde-Yard Dash: Notre Dame Tops Crushed College Football Playoff Dreams List

Each week, The Dash will identify 12 people dealing with damaged playoff hopes, and gauge their teams’ chances of rebounding from calamity.

Northern Illinois cornerback Jacob Finley brings down Notre Dame wide receiver Kris Mitchell on Saturday. / Michael Clubb / USA TODAY NETWORK

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where Thomas Hammock became America’s Coach on Saturday:

First Quarter: Twelve Angry Men 

The 12-team College Football Playoff is a wellspring of hope and excitement for dozens of fan bases. But as the losses accrue, it also will be a source of discontent for fan bases that see their chances slipping away. Each week, The Dash will identify 12 people dealing with damaged playoff hopes, and gauge their teams’ chances of rebounding from calamity.

Domers everywhere (1)

Marcus Freeman’s tenure at Notre Dame had largely evaded definition through two seasons—neither a raging success nor a significant disappointment. That may have changed Saturday, with one of the worst losses in school history. 

The Northern Illinois Huskies, a 28-point underdog per BetMGM, became the first Mid-American Conference school to beat the Fighting Irish, 16–14. The Huskies outgained the Irish by more than 100 yards, held the ball nine minutes longer and should have been able to run the clock down to the final play before kicking the winning field goal, except for a glaringly bad spot of the ball. “We did not need luck!” Hammock told his team afterward, and he was right.

So now we have a trend for Freeman—two of them, actually. This was his third loss as a favorite of more than two touchdowns, all at home—the Marshall Thundering Herd and Stanford Cardinal beat the Irish in 2022 as massive underdogs. And it was the seventh time in 29 games as the head coach that Freeman’s team has scored 21 or fewer points, with a 1–6 record in those games. Notre Dame simply isn’t bringing it every game under Freeman, and it isn’t finding the end zone nearly enough.

If the Marshall debacle had never been repeated, it could have been chalked up as a difficult learning moment in Freeman’s third game as the head coach. But now it has happened again. In front of God, country and Notre Dame, as the Domers like to say. Following up a hard-nosed victory at the Texas A&M Aggies with this dud of a home opener immediately increases the heat on Freeman for the rest of this season.

Notre Dame’s playoff chances: A promising path now looks like a mandate to win out—and even that might not guarantee anything. Losing to a MAC team can leave a lasting mark.

Michigan Men (2)

The haughty alumni base had to know this would be a rebuilding job after the championship run. But after being manhandled by the Texas Longhorns this looks like a truly daunting mission for first-year coach Sherrone Moore. 

The Wolverines are pedestrian at quarterback, running back and wide receiver. It took until the final two minutes of their second game to record a scrimmage play of 30 yards or longer, a touchdown pass from Davis Warren to Semaj Morgan with 1:54 left against the Longhorns. Their defense is good, but couldn’t stop Texas when it mattered on third down. Michigan recorded zero sacks in the game.

After the all-in push for the national title in 2023, this reckoning was coming no matter who the head coach was. Michigan was caught without a high-caliber quarterback and has other roster deficiencies.

Michigan’s playoff chances: A 19-point home loss hurts, but Texas looks like a top-three-caliber team at this point. There are plenty of quality-win opportunities ahead—if the Wolverines improve enough to get them.

Kirk Ferentz (3)

His Iowa Hawkeyes are 0–1 with him, 1–0 without him. Ferentz was suspended for the first game of the season for impermissible recruiting, then came back to preside over a second-half meltdown loss to the rival Iowa State Cyclones.

Ordinarily, if you give Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker a 13–0 halftime lead, the game is pretty much over. But not this time, with Iowa State scoring 20 points in the last 24 minutes—including the winning field goal from 54 yards out with six seconds left. Of course, Iowa could have been much further ahead if two first-and-goal series from inside the 5-yard line had produced more than two field goals.

Iowa’s playoff chances: This wasn’t a league loss, but it was at home. The Hawkeyes’ Big Ten schedule isn’t overly rigorous, so they could hang around contention to make the league title game.

Cyclones defensive end Joey Petersen and offensive linemen Jarrod Hufford and Tyler Miller carry the Cy-Hawk trophy after beating the Hawkeyes. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Jimmy Rane (4)

The Auburn University trustee has fresh motivation to meddle after the Tigers lost at home to the California Golden Bears, scoring a whopping 14 points while committing five turnovers.

Auburn was the suitably desperate school to hire Hugh Freeze, but 15 games into his tenure the Tigers are 7–8—one game worse than they were at this point under Bryan Harsin, who the boosters found intolerable. For now, they can keep blaming Harsin while pointing to Freeze’s recruiting work for 2025, but this is the kind of mid-tier program that is in danger of slipping even further in the newly expanded SEC. 

Auburn’s playoff chances: The Tigers will be lucky to finish with a .500 SEC record, so forget the playoff for the time being.

The Aflac Duck (5)

It was bad enough when Aflac pitchman Nick Saban retired from coaching. Now commercial compadre Deion Sanders has taken his first loss of the season, a 28–10 humbling from the Nebraska Cornhuskers that was over before halftime.

The Colorado Buffaloes have a few very good players but are not a good team, mostly because Sanders and his staff seem to have forgotten about recruiting (and retaining) linemen. The Buffs can’t block, rush the passer or stop the run. They’re last in the nation in rushing offense at 37.5 yards per game and tied for 120th nationally in sacks allowed with seven.

Colorado’s playoff chances: Not even worth discussing. A team that bad in the trenches is very hard to fix within a season.

Mitch Barnhart (6)

The Kentucky Wildcats athletics director could be finding himself trending back to where he ended the basketball season—with a once-popular coach who has lost his mojo but would cost a fortune to fire.

John Calipari bailed out Barnhart by bolting to Arkansas. Mark Stoops tried to do the same last year, on the verge of getting the Texas A&M job before rich and important Aggies squashed the move. So Stoops stayed on for his 12th season at the kind of place where it isn’t easy to keep winning.

Lo and behold, the Wildcats were blasted at home by the 9.5-point underdog, per BetMGM, South Carolina Gamecocks on Saturday, 31–6. The Kentucky passing game was pitiful, with transfer QBs Brock Vandagriff and Gavin Wimsatt combining to go 6-for-17 for 44 yards, with two interceptions. Kentucky now has lost three straight to South Carolina and seven of its last eight SEC games.

In late 2022, Stoops agreed to a deal paying him $9 million a year through ’31. He’s 15–13 since the start of that season.

Kentucky’s playoff chances: When you’re 0–1 in the SEC and the Georgia Bulldogs are coming to town Saturday, this is not time to be thinking about the playoffs.

Stoops is 15–13 since the start of the 2022 season. / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

North Carolina State fans (7)

Bless their hearts. They floated on a cloud of unexpected joy when their men’s and women’s basketball teams made the Final Four, then carried their usual unrealistic football hopes through the summer. Two games in, it might be time to abandon that ship.

The Wolfpack lost 51–10 to the Tennessee Volunteers in the Duke’s Mayo Massacre Saturday. While that may well signal that the Volunteers are going to be a major problem, it also says something about NC State. When you’re outgained 460 to 142 yards, you’ve got issues.

North Carolina State’s playoff chances: The Dash will continue to point out that two teams will have to make the ACC championship game, and outside of Miami auditions are wide open. But after struggling much of the opener against FCS Western Carolina and then getting crushed in Charlotte by the Vols, the Pack have a lot of work to do.

The One-More-Chance ADs (8)

Mack Rhoades at Baylor and Hunter Yurachek at Arkansas gave their embattled football coaches another season to get it right, with revamped staffs and new quarterbacks via the transfer portal. After two weeks, both Dave Aranda at Baylor and Sam Pittman at Arkansas are 1–1.

Aranda and the Bears were handled convincingly by the Utah Utes, falling behind 23–0 and losing 23–12. Baylor produced just 223 yards of offense, and 93 of that came on two plays.

Pittman and the Razorbacks couldn’t finish what they started at the Oklahoma State Cowboys, leading by two touchdowns on two different occasions before succumbing in overtime. Two missed field goals and some red zone futility loomed large in the end.

Baylor’s playoff chances: The Big 12 is a land of opportunity, so never say never. Or at least don’t say it yet.

Arkansas’s playoff chances: The SEC is not a land of opportunity. But the Razorbacks do face all their toughest league opponents at home.

The nearest SMU billionaire (9)

All that money the boosters ponied up to get into the ACC couldn’t buy a touchdown against the BYU Cougars on Friday. The Mustangs kicked five field goals in an 18–15 loss that accentuated some of the same struggles they had in an opening muddle past the Nevada Wolf Pack.

Standout quarterback Preston Stone hasn’t looked right in coming back from a leg fracture suffered late last season. Coach Rhett Lashlee went with backup Kevin Jennings most of the game against BYU, with modest results.

SMU’s playoff chances: The Mustangs are among the huddled ACC masses dreaming of making the league title game, but for now that’s just wishful thinking.

Stone has not looked right after coming back from a leg fracture last season. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Drew Weatherford (10)

The former Florida State Seminole and current booster has been among the most vocal about the Noles getting out of the ACC in pursuit of some manifest destiny of riches and glory. But their nightmarish 0–2 start got a little worse Saturday when the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets lost to the Syracuse Orange. Now the teams Florida State lost to are starting to lose, too. 

FSU’s playoff chances: Still nil without running the table the rest of the way in the league.

Brent Venables (11)

Winning certainly beats the alternative, but his Oklahoma Sooners wheezing past the Houston Cougars, 16–12, was no resume enhancer. The Cougars were coming off a 20-point loss to the UNLV Rebels and were in the game in Norman, Okla., for the full 60 minutes. A week after giving up 195 yards on the ground, Houston held Oklahoma to 75.

Oklahoma’s playoff chances: All their important work is ahead of them. They just have to show that they’re good enough to do the work in a more difficult league.

Phil Knight (12)

The Swoosh King makes a second straight appearance on the Twelve Angry Men list, after a second straight wobbly victory by his Oregon Ducks. They defeated the state of Idaho 65–48 the first two weeks of the season, not what anyone had in mind from the preseason No. 3 team in the country. Oregon’s offensive line is shaky, producing just 2.96 yards per carry so far and surrendering seven sacks.

Oregon’s playoff chances: Still perfectly viable, but beware the rivalry trap game at the Oregon State Beavers on Saturday.

The Buzzin’ Dozen

How The Dash would seed the playoff if today were Selection Sunday. (As usual, this is based on actual results to date, not preseason rankings or conjecture. If your team hasn’t played anyone yet, you’re not getting in this bracket.)

• No. 1 seed: Georgia Bulldogs (SEC champion)
• No. 2 seed: USC Trojans (Big Ten champion)
• No. 3 seed: Miami Hurricanes (ACC champion)
• No. 4 seed: Utah Utes (Big 12 champion)
• No. 5 seed: Texas Longhorns (at-large selection)
• No. 6 seed: Tennessee Volunteers (at-large selection)
• No. 7 seed: Boston College Eagles (at-large selection)
• No. 8 seed: Vanderbilt Commodores (at-large selection)
• No. 9 seed: Penn State Nittany Lions (at-large selection)
• No. 10 seed: South Carolina Gamecocks (at-large selection)
• No. 11 seed: Iowa State Cyclones (at-large selection)
• No. 12 seed: Northern Illinois Huskies (Group of 5 champion)

First-round matchups: Northern Illinois at Texas; Iowa State at Tennessee; South Carolina at Boston College; Penn State at Vanderbilt.

First-round byes: Georgia, USC, Miami, Utah.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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