Forde-Yard Dash: Ohio State Still Likely a CFP Team, But Questions Persist

Each week, The Dash will identify 12 people dealing with damaged playoff hopes, and gauge their teams’ chances of rebounding from calamity.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is tackled by Oregon Ducks defensive back Brandon Johnson on Saturday. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where players are encouraged to keep their saliva to themselves:

First Quarter: Twelve (or More) Angry Men (and Women)

The 12-team College Football Playoff is a wellspring of hope and excitement for dozens of fan bases. But as the losses accrue, it also will be a source of discontent for those who see their chances slipping away. Each week, The Dash will identify 12 people dealing with damaged playoff hopes, and gauge their teams’ chances of rebounding from calamity.

Ohio State Buckeyes collective donors (1)

The players they spent $20 million on to lure through the portal or keep away from the NFL draft weren’t as good Saturday night as the players the Oregon Ducks spent lavishly on to lure through the portal or keep away from the NFL draft. Or maybe it was that the Ohio State head coach, and the former UCLA head coach swiped to be the offensive coordinator, and the defensive coordinator making $2.2 million, weren’t as good as Oregon counterparts Dan Lanning, Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi.

Whoever you want to blame for a tense, 32–31 loss to the Ducks, it’s open season. This loss may produce no lasting damage, but Ohio State fans went into the season looking to replicate Michigan’s 15–0 championship run of 2023. That’s now gone by the wayside, and this is a fan base that doesn’t handle defeat with great aplomb. So it’s time to proceed directly to condemnation and outrage.

Will Ryan Day ever win a truly big game again? Will Jim Knowles’s defense ever stop an elite offense? Will star rush ends J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer get a sack when it matters most? Will Chip Kelly’s offense devolve into praying for Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith to be nonstop heroes who carry it all on their backs? Will Will Howard get a better internal clock? 

So many questions. After an open date, we’ll start drilling down for answers. For now, they’ll stay angry in Columbus.

Ohio State’s chances of making the playoff: Better than any other one-loss team—losing by a point on the road to Oregon isn’t bad at all. But a second loss could make things dicey, which will make the back half of the season a bit sweaty. Remember that the Buckeyes played a nonconference schedule of Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall, which could be used against them in the selection process. The next two opponents (Nebraska and Penn State on the road) are a combined 11–1. The last two opponents are undefeated Indiana and nemesis Michigan. 

If the Buckeyes don’t win the Big Ten championship game, an 11–2 record is almost assuredly in. A 10–2 Ohio State also is likely in, but less a sure thing than 11–2. A 9–3 Ohio State team is in trouble.

Everyone in Oklahoma, but most notably in Norman (2)

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are one of the busts of the season at 3–3, 0–3 in the Big 12. But the guys truly on the griddle today are the Oklahoma Sooners, who are 4–2 after being throttled by the rival Texas Longhorns on Saturday. 

The two programs have played each other 120 times. Texas has beaten Oklahoma by 30 or more points eight times, and 25% of those have been in the past three meetings. There was a 49–0 humiliation in 2022 when the Sooners had to play their third-string quarterback most of the game, and then there was this 34–3 disaster in which they have no excuse other than simply being bad.

The common thread between them: Oklahoma coach Brent Venables, master of the Red River rollover. He’s now the first coach in Sooner history to have a pair of 30-plus-point losses to Texas on his resume.

Venables is a defensive guy who is lacking an offense and seems to have horribly mismanaged his quarterback situation. Dillon Gabriel was the hero of Oklahoma’s win over Texas last year, but Saturday he was the hero for Oregon against Ohio State. Maybe Gabriel was leaving Norman no matter what, but the Sooners seemed perfectly comfortable letting him go because they were high on touted recruit Jackson Arnold. 

Arnold has proven to be turnover-prone, and he was benched during the loss to Tennessee on Sept. 21 in favor of freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. That now might have been a panic move, because Hawkins has not been the answer either. The reluctance to turn back to Arnold during the flailing performance Saturday was curious.

Venables was strangely given a raise and extension in the spring. That decision looks even more dubious now, given his 20–12 record (11–10 in conference play). Venables might be too expensive to fire, but offensive coordinator Seth Littrell isn’t.

Oklahoma’s chances of making the playoff: The Sooners (4–2) might need to win out in the regular season, and with four remaining ranked opponents that is highly unlikely.

Walker Jones (3)

He runs the The Grove collective for the Mississippi Rebels, and he did bang-up work helping put together a fancy roster. Just one problem: unserious coach Lane Kiffin is still losing big games. 

The most recent: Saturday at the LSU Tigers, 29–26 in overtime. This was a gut buster—LSU never led until the winning play, just hanging around as Ole Miss (4–2) failed to put the Tigers away. The Rebels came in leading the SEC in sacks and produced zero, while giving up six. Kiffin’s renowned offensive acumen produced zero touchdowns in Mississippi’s last eight possessions.

Mississippi’s chances of making the playoff: A home loss to Kentucky put the Rebels on notice, and now a second loss puts them on the brink. The home matchup with Oklahoma on Oct. 26 looks like an elimination game.

Almost everyone who contributed to killing the Pac-12 (4)

Great work, people. Everything is going splendidly.

Yes, life is good at Oregon and Arizona State, and it’s not bad at Colorado. But have you seen the rest of the wreckage? 

USC Trojans (5)

They led the exit in 2022, fleeing for the money in the Big Ten. Enjoy lighting cigars with $100 bills, folks, but those sure aren’t victory cigars.

For the third time in four Big Ten games, USC couldn’t hold a lead. The Trojans let the Michigan Wolverines come back Sept. 21, let the Minnesota Golden Gophers come back last week and let the Penn State Nittany Lions come back Saturday. A 20–6 halftime lead dissolved into a 33–30 overtime loss. At 3–3 and 1–3 in the league, the heat is continuing to build on Lincoln Riley. His struggles are the only things warming the bitter hearts of Oklahoma fans.

USC’s chances of making the playoff: All but gone. If the Trojans (3–3) win out to reach 9–3, with victories over Notre Dame and LSU, they could reenter the argument. But even then they could need help in the manner of losses elsewhere.

Washington Huskies (6)

At some point Saturday, as Washington was being pummeled in mid-America by the Iowa Hawkeyes, fans who made the trip had to be looking around and asking themselves the David Byrne question: Well, how did I get here?

Of the four West Coast teams traveling long distance in the Big Ten, the Huskies have been the most pronounced home hero/road zero so far. They have beaten Northwestern and Michigan in Seattle and lost to Rutgers and Iowa away. Against the Hawkeyes, they had season lows in points and yards per play. They also had season highs in points allowed, yards per play allowed and turnovers.

Washington’s chances of making the playoff: The Huskies are 4–3 and going nowhere. With trips still remaining to undefeated Indiana, Penn State and Oregon, they’ll be struggling for bowl eligibility.

Arizona Wildcats (7)

Expected to contend right away in the Big 12, Arizona instead is 1–2 in the league and 1–3 against league members (a loss to Kansas State was considered a non-league game since it was already scheduled before realignment). The Wildcats are coming off a 41–19 beatdown from unexpected power wagon BYU, with quarterback Noah Fifita having thrown five interceptions in consecutive losses to the Cougars and Texas Tech. Star wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan hasn’t scored a touchdown since the season opener.

Arizona’s chances of making the playoff: No.

Utah Utes (8)

In fairness to the Utes, both of their Big 12 losses are to fellow Pac-12 evacuees—Arizona and Arizona State. But no matter how you slice it, the preseason conference favorite has become a mess. Fragile quarterback Cam Rising returned from a three-game absence due to a hand injury only to hurt his leg early against the Sun Devils—he kept playing but had one of the worst games of his career, throwing three interceptions.

Utah’s chances of making the playoff: Two losses might not eliminate the Utes from Big 12 title contention, but they’ve got to get right in a hurry. The schedule offers a couple opportunities for that, with games against TCU and Houston before a November slate that includes unbeaten BYU and Iowa State.

UCLA Bruins (9)

They’re 0–4 in league play and in sole possession of 18th place in the Big Ten, a development pretty much everyone could see coming. (Including Chip Kelly, who bailed for a coordinator job at Ohio State.) Hiring unproven DeShaun Foster has only accelerated the decline. Big Ten teams traveling two or more time zones are now 3–10, and 4–9 against the spread. UCLA has been the home team facilitating two of those three long-distance wins, losing in the Rose Bowl to both Indiana and Minnesota.

UCLA’s chances of making the playoff: Check back in 2026. And don’t get your hopes up then, either.

The Bay Area schools (10) are a combined 1–5 in ACC play. The Stanford Cardinal are 1–2, with a last-second win at Syracuse and home losses to TCU and Virginia Tech. The California Golden Bears are 0–3, although their series of excruciating losses (by a total of eight points) is basically just a continuation of Cal football as it’s often been, regardless of conference affiliation.

Either school’s chances of making the playoff: About the same as UCLA’s. Not this year, not anytime soon, maybe not ever.  

Beaver Believers (11)

Oregon State fans had a bad weekend. They lost to Nevada to drop to 4–2, and they had to put up with Oregon having its biggest home win in history to stake a claim to No. 1 in the nation.

Oregon State’s chances of making the playoff: If the Beavers had gone 11–1, with their only loss to the Ducks, maybe they could have mounted a long-shot argument for at-large contention. Nobody is making the playoff with a loss to Nevada on the resume. 

Rick Pitino (12)

The greatest chameleon in college sports history showed up in Lexington over the weekend as a born-again Kentucky Wildcats backer, with former player Mark Pope now the men’s basketball coach. But Pitino didn’t stop at simply wearing blue and appearing in Rupp Arena for Big Blue Madness; he also espoused Mark Stoops’s football team. Pitino said he gave $15,000 to Kentucky’s football NIL fund, a naked act of aggression toward his former employer and UK arch rival, Louisville. Alas, Pitino is not getting any bang for his buck—the Wildcats lost to Vanderbilt and are now 1–3 in the SEC, playing a lot like they did when Pitino was the basketball coach from 1989 to ’97.

Kentucky’s chances of making the playoff: Nah.

The Buzzin’ Dozen 

Each week The Dash projects the 12-team playoff field as if today were Selection Sunday. As always, the rankings are based on what has actually transpired this season, not preseason predictions. The longer teams like BYU, Iowa State, Indiana and Pittsburgh stay undefeated, the more interesting this becomes.

1. Oregon Ducks (Big Ten champion, automatic bid)
2. Texas Longhorns (SEC champion, automatic bid)
3. Miami Hurricanes (ACC champion, automatic bid)
4. BYU Cougars (Big 12 champion, automatic bid)
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (at-large selection)
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (at-large selection)
7. Georgia Bulldogs (at-large selection)
8. Iowa State Cyclones (at-large selection)
9. Indiana Hoosiers (at-large selection)
10. Pittsburgh Panthers (at-large selection)
11. Clemson Tigers (at-large selection)
12. Boise State Broncos (Mountain West champion, automatic bid)

On the bubble: Alabama, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, SMU, Army, Navy, Kansas State, Tennessee.

First-round matchups: Boise State at Penn State; Clemson at Ohio State; Pittsburgh at Georgia; Indiana at Iowa State.

First-round byes: Oregon, Texas, Miami, BYU.