Forde-Yard Dash: Quarterback Changes, Close-Game Losses and Regression to the Mean

Each week, The Dash will identify 12 people dealing with damaged College Football Playoff hopes, and gauge their teams’ chances of rebounding from calamity.

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Michael Hawkins was subbed in against the Tennessee Volunteers and could make the start next week. / BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (prayers answered separately in Boulder):

First Quarter: Twelve Angry Men (and Women)

The 12-team College Football Playoff is a wellspring of hope and excitement for dozens of fan bases. But as the losses accrue, it also will be a source of discontent for those who see their chances slipping away. Each week, The Dash will identify 12 people dealing with damaged playoff hopes, and gauge their teams’ chances of rebounding from calamity.

Bob Stoops (1) 

The Oklahoma Sooners icon saw them lose the battle of his former assistants, one of whom (Tennessee Volunteers coach Josh Heupel) he once fired. The other guy, Brent Venables, is now facing renewed doubts—about his quarterbacks, about his offensive coordinator, and about his overall ability to restore Oklahoma’s playoff pedigree as a newcomer to the vicious Southeastern Conference.

Venables’s record is now 19–11 after the Sooners were power-slapped by the Volunteers, 25–15, in a game that was not as close as the score. In two games against power-conference competition, Oklahoma has rushed for a total of 111 yards on 63 carries. That’s put added pressure on quarterback Jackson Arnold, and the sophomore has struggled—he had three turnovers against Tennessee, a flashback to his error-prone bowl performance last year. Arnold was benched in the second half Saturday, with backup Michael Hawkins providing a spark that could (and should) lead to a lineup change next week at the Auburn Tigers. 

Beyond the quarterback, offensive coordinator Seth Littrell has also been the target of fan angst. In his first season replacing Jeff Lebby in the role, Oklahoma’s scoring is down 12.7 points per game; yards per play is down 2.27; and pass efficiency rating is down 45.18 points. While a lot of that is attributable to losing Dillon Gabriel to the Oregon Ducks, the guy calling the plays will also catch heat when the drop-off is that dramatic.

Oklahoma’s chances of making the playoff: At 3–1, 0–1 in the SEC, there is a long way to go. But as it stands today, the Sooners could be underdogs in five of their seven remaining SEC games. They could be eliminated from playoff contention before the calendar flips to November.

Tom Osborne (2)

The patriarch of the Nebraska Cornhuskers has watched years of the Huskers finding ways to lose close games. It doesn’t seem to matter who the coaches or players are—the song remains the same. Matt Rhule looks a lot like Scott Frost in one-score games: His record is now 1–6 after coming from ahead to lose at home to the Illinois Fighting Illini on Friday night.

If you want the definition of un-clutch, it was Nebraska’s final eight offensive snaps. Up a touchdown and going for the win, freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola missed an open receiver for a touchdown. Then the Huskers missed a short field goal. Then, after Illinois tied the game to force overtime and Nebraska took a knee to end regulation, it got worse. The Illini scored and the Huskers responded with: false start, sack, sack, short completion, sack. Game over.

Nebraska’s chances of making the playoff: With one loss, everything is still on the table. But the next three opponents are undefeated, so best of luck. 

Alex Grinch (3)

He was fired as the defensive coordinator of the USC Trojans last year, with good reason. But after two good games by the USC defense under new coordinator D’Anton Lynn, the Trojans relapsed to Grinchian run defense against the Michigan Wolverines. USC allowed three runs of longer than 40 yards in the game, more than any other Big Ten team has allowed this entire season. 

More than half of Michigan’s 322 yards of offense came on those three plays. The Wolverines’ other 55 snaps netted 155 yards.

That picks up where Grinch’s 2023 Trojans left off, surrendering eight such runs, most in the Pac-12.

USC’s chances of making the playoff: A quality win over LSU certainly helps the resume, and a last-minute loss to Michigan on the road is not a crime. But with four road games and visits from the Penn State Nittany Lions and Notre Dame Fighting Irish still to come, USC will have to win several big games to stay in the hunt.

Michigan quarterback Alex Orji runs against USC linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Gavin Newsom (4)

The governor of California had three FBS teams from his state enter the weekend undefeated. They all lost. In addition to USC, the California Golden Bears were beaten in their Atlantic Coast Conference debut and the San Jose State Spartans lost in double overtime at the Washington State Cougars.

Cal gave up seven sacks in a 14–9 loss that was a festival of offensive futility against the Florida State Seminoles, closely resembling many other defeats under Justin Wilcox. Cal was good enough defensively to be in the game and flawed enough offensively not to win it, failing to score a touchdown. The Bears have lost 22 straight times when scoring fewer than 20 points dating to November 2018—which is a lot of times scoring fewer than 20.

San Jose State has been an early overachiever under first-year coach Ken Niumatalolo, but the Spartans couldn’t hold a late regulation lead against Washington State. The fact that a Niumatalolo-coached team threw the ball 54 times and ran it 21 is an indication that we are nearly in the End Times.

Cal’s chances of making the playoff: Beat the Miami Hurricanes in your next game, Oct. 5, and we’ll talk.

San Jose State’s chances of making the playoff: The Spartans could be in the Mountain West championship mix, but they might be underdogs in their final five games.

The Stillwater Mullet (5)

Mike Gundy and his Oklahoma State Cowboys had the Utah Utes where they wanted them—in Stillwater and playing without their starting quarterback. Didn’t matter. Oklahoma State was largely uncompetitive in a Big 12 showdown game, scoring three points in the first 54 minutes and managing just 48 rushing yards. 

From the middle of the first quarter through the middle of the fourth, these were Oklahoma State’s possessions: punt, punt, missed field goal, interception, end of the half, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, interception. For a onetime offensive genius like Gundy, that’s brutal.

Oklahoma State’s chances of making the playoff: The race for second in the Big 12, and a place in the league championship game, still looks wide open. As long as that’s the case, the Cowboys should be in the mix. But if they lose at the Kansas State Wildcats next Saturday, they’re up against it.

Roy Williams (6)

The retired North Carolina Tar Heels basketball coaching legend is a big fan of all the school’s sports, and he had to be embarrassed by what he saw at Kenan Stadium on Saturday. The Heels gave up a school-record 70 points to James Madison, which three years ago was an FCS program. They gave up 53 in the first half. It was unimaginably bad.

Ol’ Roy knew when to retire, and you wonder whether he needs to communicate that to Ol’ Mack Brown, age 73. Brown says he’ll be back at work this week, but it’s hard to even know where to start fixing that situation.

North Carolina’s chances of making the playoff: There is nothing in the CFP bylaws that says a team that allows 70 points is disqualified from consideration, but it doesn’t have to be in writing. Everyone just knows.

Laura Kelly (7)

Tough weekend in the Sunflower State, where Kelly is the governor. Kansas has reverted to being Kansas, dropping to 1–3 and winless against FBS competition. The Jayhawks have failed to hold fourth-quarter leads in all three losses.

But the bigger news was Kansas State being routed at the BYU Cougars, with an avalanche of big plays turning the game on a dime. Three K-State turnovers and a 90-yard punt return across most of Utah doomed the Wildcats, who did not get a good game from first-year starting quarterback Avery Johnson.

Kansas’s chances of making the playoff: The Jayhawks could still get there via the Big 12 title game, but they have to figure out how to win close games first.

Kansas State’s chances of making the playoff: The Wildcats have tended to cough up an early hairball or two under Chris Klieman before getting their act together, so one loss in Provo is not a disaster. And they don’t have to play Utah.

John Wildhack (8)

The Syracuse Orange athletic director hired someone who had never been a solo coordinator, much less a head coach, in Fran Brown. That inexperience showed late in the Cuse’s upset home loss to the Stanford Cardinal on Friday night. 

Syracuse inexplicably went with single coverage on the Cardinal’s best player, receiver Elic Ayomanor, on a fourth-and-ballgame play in the final minute. He made a catch for a 27-yard gain that facilitated the winning field goal on the final play. Brown also was slow to use his timeouts to at least give Syracuse a chance at a miracle finish.

Syracuse’s chances of making the playoff: If you can’t win at home against Stanford, not good. But the Orange don’t play the Clemson Tigers or Louisville Cardinals, so they could stay in the ACC race for a while.

Brown gestures during the Orange's loss to the Cardinal. / Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

Metallica (9)

They’ve got to be tired of watching the Virginia Tech Hokies come sprinting into Lane Stadium to “Enter Sandman” only to then lay an egg. Tech’s latest home loss was to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on Saturday, a game in which the Hokies never led but did rally to tie late before surrendering the winning field goal.

Tech’s Lane Stadium record is now 14–12 over the past four-plus seasons. The Hokies have too often gone from “Enter Sandman” to exit losing.

Virginia Tech’s chances of making the playoff: Slim now, and could be almost completely extinguished Friday night at Miami.

Fred Smith (10)

The FedEx founder has put a lot of money behind the Memphis Tigers’ bid to upgrade in the college sports hierarchy, including a $25 million NIL pledge over five years. After a 3–0 start and interest from the newly reforming Pac-12, the time was right for Memphis to strut its stuff Saturday. Instead, the Tigers gave up 56 points and lost to Navy—which isn’t exactly an NIL-funded program.

Memphis’s chances of making the playoff: Someone has to get that Group of 5 automatic bid. But there might now be about six teams ahead of the Tigers in the pecking order (with admittedly a long way to go). 

Jon Steinbrecher (11)

The Mid-American Conference commissioner got to bask in two major upsets: the Northern Illinois Huskies over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Toledo Rockets over the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Then reality returned—the Huskies lost to the Buffalo Bulls on Saturday and the Rockets lost to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. Now the MAC is fresh out of undefeated teams before we even get out of September.

The MAC’s chances of making the playoff: The league generally is considered a cut below the American Athletic Conference and Mountain West, and probably the Sun Belt as well. If the MAC teams all cannibalize each other, the G5 autobid is likely going elsewhere.

Sonny Dykes (12)

Oh yeah, he’s an angry man. The TCU Horned Frogs coach got himself ejected early in the second half of a humiliating rout at the hands of the program he used to coach, the SMU Mustangs. TCU gave up touchdowns on a fumble return, an interception return and a punt return while going a minus-four in turnovers. In the last half of the game against the Central Florida Knights and the first half against SMU, TCU gave up 69 points.

It was the second straight loss for the Frogs, who are 7–9 since that fairy-tale run to the national title game in the 2022 season. That seems like a long time ago now.

TCU’s chances of making the playoff: The Frogs are part of the pack of Big 12 dreamers hoping to make that title game, but it would require a profound reversal of current form.

Dykes was ejected Saturday as the Frogs were routed by the Mustangs. / Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

The Buzzin’ Dozen

Each week The Dash projects the 12-team playoff field as if today were Selection Sunday. As always, the rankings are based on what has actually transpired this season, not preseason predictions. That means if your favorite school (say, Ohio State) hasn’t played a power-conference opponent yet, it isn’t going to be ranked.

1. Texas Longhorns (SEC champion, automatic bid)
2. Miami Hurricanes (ACC champion, automatic bid)
3. Utah Utes (Big 12 champion, automatic bid)
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten champion, automatic bid) 
5. Georgia Bulldogs (at-large selection)
6. Tennessee Volunteers (at-large selection)
7. Alabama Crimson Tide (at-large selection)
8. Iowa State Cyclones (at-large selection) 
9. Washington State Cougars (at-large selection)
10. Michigan Wolverines (at-large selection)
11. USC Trojans (at-large selection)
12. James Madison Dukes (Sun Belt champion, Group of 5 automatic bid)

First-round games: James Madison at Georgia; USC at Tennessee; Michigan at Alabama; Washington State at Iowa State.

First-round byes: Texas, Miami, Utah, Penn State.