Forde-Yard Dash: Week 4 Games of Escalating Intrigue

Matchups between unbeatens, conference debuts and when a win could still spell a coach’s firing are all on tap this weekend.

USC Trojans running back Quinten Joyner (0) celebrates with offensive lineman Mason Murphy (76) after scoring a touchdown. / Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where only Kirk Ferentz could love Mark Stoops’s late-game punt while losing against Georgia. First Quarter: Twelve Angry Men. Second Quarter: Buy or Sell the Hype of Undefeated Teams. Third Quarter: Heisman Trophy Watch.

Fourth Quarter: Week 4 Games of Escalating Intrigue 

Every week has impactful games—some we see coming far ahead of time, some that sneak up on us, some that aren’t big until an upset is underway. This week there are a handful of games that have gotten more interesting the closer we get to them. The Dash list, with picks:

USC Trojans at Michigan Wolverines (33), 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. The records: USC 2–0, Michigan 2–1. The rankings: No. 11 USC, No. 18 Michigan. The stakes: The first campus meeting between the two blueblood programs since 1958 is also their first meeting as Big Ten colleagues. It is about as high-profile an entry into the league as the Trojans could have, taking on the reigning national champions, and the league wisely did not stick them with a bad body-clock game in the noon ET kickoff window. The line: USC by 5.5, per FanDuel.

Key matchup: USC’s improved defense against Michigan’s change-of-pace starting quarterback, Alex Orji. Sherrone Moore announced Monday that he’s benching Davis Warren in favor of Orji, a more athletic QB who has thrown only seven college passes in three seasons. But Warren has thrown six interceptions in 72 attempts this season, including three Saturday against the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Moore probably figures a game of punts and field position is preferable to turnovers that give the Trojans short fields, and USC hasn’t yet faced a team with a dynamic runner at QB.

Dash pick: USC 21, Michigan 14.

Tennessee Volunteers at Oklahoma Sooners (34), 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday. The records: Both teams are 3–0. The rankings: No. 6 Tennessee, No. 15 Oklahoma. The stakes: This is the Sooners’ first game as a Southeastern Conference member, continuing recent SEC history of giving the new schools a home debut. (Both the Missouri Tigers and Texas A&M Aggies opened at home in 2012; the Texas Longhorns’ opener next week against the Mississippi State Bulldogs is in Austin.) It’s a splashy one, with the Vols currently leading the nation in scoring at 63.7 points per game and coach Josh Heupel a former Oklahoma hero quarterback. The line: Tennessee by 6.5, per FanDuel.

Key matchup: Heupel’s offensive brain against Brent Venables’s defensive acumen. Famed former Sooners head coach Bob Stoops has begged off interview requests before this game, having been the boss of both men and the coach when Heupel was quarterbacking Oklahoma to the 2000 national title. As impressive as Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava has been, the Vols have been more productive running than passing. The Oklahoma run defense ranks 11th nationally in fewest yards allowed per carry at 2.22 and has yet to give up a rushing touchdown. The Sooners also have a nation-leading 10 takeaways so far.

Dash pick: Tennessee 35, Oklahoma 24. 

Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers (35), 8 p.m. ET Friday. The records: Both teams are 3–0. The rankings: No. 24 Illinois, No. 22 Nebraska. The stakes: Someone is going to be 4–0 for the first time in a while—Illinois last did it in 2011, and Nebraska in ’16. One of Scott Frost’s biggest problems as coach of the Cornhuskers was losing three straight to the Illini from '20 to ’22; Matt Rhule restored some order last season with a win in Champaign. The line: Nebraska by 8.5, per FanDuel.

Key matchup: Nebraska freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola against a ballhawking, turnover-causing Illinois secondary. Raiola has been very good so far, completing 74% of his passes with five touchdowns and only one interception. But he will be facing an Illini defense that has six interceptions and three fumble recoveries while ranking third in the Big Ten in pass efficiency allowed. Can Raiola make big plays without making big mistakes?

Dash pick: Nebraska 24, Illinois 21.

Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy and the Cowboys have won their last five Big 12 home openers. / SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

Utah Utes at Oklahoma State Cowboys (36), 4 p.m. ET Saturday. The records: Both teams are 3–0. The rankings: No. 12 Utah, No. 14 Oklahoma State. The stakes: This is Utah’s first official Big 12 game, and the preseason favorites were dealt a stout opening challenge going to Stillwater, Okla. Winner of this game could move into the league pole position, although the Kansas State Wildcats and Iowa State Cyclones likely will have something to say about that down the line. The line: Utah by 1.5, per FanDuel.

Key matchup: Will Utes quarterback Cam Rising be back after missing the game Saturday against the Utah State Aggies with a reported hand injury? Freshman Isaac Wilson filled in capably, but Utah assuredly would rather have its 25-year-old war daddy back to take on fellow old-timer Alan Bowman (age 24) of the Cowboys. Rising and Bowman have played a combined 72 college games.

Dash pick: Utah 28, Oklahoma State 24.

Florida Gators at Mississippi State Bulldogs (37), noon ET Saturday. The records: Both teams are 1–2 and winless against FBS competition, to the chagrin of their fans. The rankings: Please. The stakes: Win or lose, this could be the last game for Gators coach Billy Napier, who has lost all support after a 12–16 record through 28 games. Florida has an open date after this game, which would give the program time to regroup around an interim coach for the remainder of the season. Firing Napier after a win would be a very SEC thing to do, but beating this Mississippi State team wouldn’t prove much. The Bulldogs have had their heads handed to them in consecutive weeks by the Arizona State Sun Devils and Toledo Rockets. The line: Florida by 6.5, per FanDuel.

Key matchup: Napier vs. the Florida administration. The Dash is relatively sure who is going to win this.

Dash pick: Florida 30, Mississippi State 27.

Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week  

Jason Candle (38), Toledo Rockets. He’s never had a losing season in nine years on the job, and he might have hit his highest point Saturday by trampling Mississippi State in Starkville, Miss. Candle lost three-year starting quarterback Dequan Finn to the portal, then replaced him with three-year backup Tucker Gleason and the offense has been every bit as good. The win was a testament to the MAC, to Toledo and to Candle specifically. He’s an excellent coach and has proven that over a long period of time.

Coach Who Should Take the Bus to Work 

Ryan Walters (39), Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue ran into an angry Notre Dame Fighting Irish team Saturday, which was unfortunate. But the lack of toughness and technique the Boilers displayed in being bludgeoned 66–7 was embarrassing for a Big Ten program. Purdue’s defense was run over, run through and run around in the worst loss in school history. The Boilers have to do better than that going forward.

Point After

When thirsty in the college football hub city of Atlanta, The Dash recommends grabbing an Awe Juice IPA from Gate City Brewing (40) in nearby Roswell. Hit the College Football Hall of Fame, catch a game at Georgia Tech’s Bobby Dodd Stadium or drive to Athens, Clemson or Tuscaloosa, then grab an Awe Juice afterward and thank The Dash later.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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