Forde-Yard Dash: Weekend Upsets Tighten College Football Playoff Race

Each week, The Dash will identify 12 people dealing with damaged playoff hopes, and gauge their teams’ chances of rebounding from calamity.

Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer gestures on the sideline during the loss to Vanderbilt. / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (replacement goal posts sold separately in Nashville):

First Quarter: Twelve Angry Men (and Women)

The 12-team College Football Playoff is a wellspring of hope and excitement for dozens of fan bases. But as the losses accrue, it also will be a source of discontent for those who see their chances slipping away. Each week, The Dash will identify 12 people dealing with damaged playoff hopes, and gauge their teams’ chances of rebounding from calamity.

Finebaum callers (1)

The Dash is certain the switchboard is already lit up with callers to The Paul Finebaum Show for Monday, ready to declare the following: the Alabama Crimson Tide’s season is over; Kalen DeBoer is a sorry excuse for a coach who is unworthy of mowing Nick Saban’s lawn, much less replacing him; the Tide once-proud defense is dead; and Jalen Milroe’s Heisman Trophy campaign is, too. There is no panic button sturdy enough to withstand the smashing this one will get from Alabama fans after the program’s first loss to Vanderbilt in 40 years.

Has anyone fallen harder and faster than the Tide week-over-week? From upsetting Georgia and rising to No. 1 in the AP poll, with all the accompanying hosannas, to being the first top-five team to ever lose to Vandy—that is jumping out of an airplane without a parachute.

For DeBoer, the Nick Would Never criticisms are these:

• Nick Would Never lose to a team this bad. Alabama was favored by 22.5 points, per BetMGM, and playing an opponent that lost three weeks ago to the Georgia State Panthers. Vanderbilt hasn’t had a winning season since 2013 and had lost 10 straight SEC games before this. It’s a better Vandy team than recent editions—but it’s still Vandy until proven otherwise.

Yes, Saban famously lost to Louisiana-Monroe in his first year at Alabama, but that was early in the rebuilding stage—DeBoer did not inherit a team in need of a massive rebuild. Of all Saban’s accomplishments, avoiding stunning upsets ranks pretty high. Even the Tide’s most recent loss while ranked No. 1 to an unranked opponent—41–38 at Texas A&M in 2021—was to a team that finished 8–4 in a truly rabid road atmosphere.

Maybe Vanderbilt will finish 8–4 or better, who knows. But winning in Memorial Stadium has never been near as hard as winning at Kyle Field. And truth be told, Alabama was never the better team Saturday. Which brings us to this … 

• Nick Would Never field a defense this bad. This is (slightly) open to debate. The 2018 Tide gave up more points in a two-game period than the 74 this one has—78 to Oklahoma and Clemson in the College Football Playoff—but those were outstanding opponents with high-powered offenses. The ’21 Tide gave up 20.1 points per game and that rebuilding first team allowed 22, while the current team is right at 20.

Regardless, there is no question that the current Alabama defense has sprung alarming leaks over the last six quarters. In the second half against Georgia and the full game against Vanderbilt, the Tide allowed eight touchdowns and two field goals while forcing just three punts and two turnovers. With the game on the line Saturday night, Alabama couldn’t stop Vanderbilt. Let’s type that again, for the sheer novelty of it: Alabama could not stop Vanderbilt.

The Commodores nearly doubled Alabama in rushing yardage (166–84), and their skill players repeatedly ran through contact to get first downs and keep drives alive. This is a bad week to be Kane Wommack, Alabama’s defensive coordinator.

Alabama’s chances of making the playoff: Still in the bracket for now (see below), with that win over Georgia carrying a lot of weight. But there are some increasingly urgent games coming against Tennessee and Missouri on Oct. 19 and 26. Then LSU and Oklahoma loom on the road in November.

Jonathan Skrmetti (2)

The Tennessee attorney general carried Big Orange water by going to court and nuking the NCAA’s power to enforce rules on pay-for-play transactions for recruits. That effectively ended an investigation into Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Nico Iamaleava and his reported $8 million agreement to play for the Vols.

After a stunning upset loss to Arkansas, the question now is what bang Tennessee is getting for all those bucks. Iamaleava led the Vols to just 14 points, none in the first half, and their last five possessions were all punts or turning the ball over on downs. Iamaleava passed for a season-low 156 yards and ranks 10th in efficiency in league games.

Tennessee’s chances of making the playoff: Still alive, with the road win over Oklahoma the best part of the résumé. But depending on what’s happening elsewhere, the Vols might need to beat either Alabama or Georgia, in addition to winning the rest of their games.

Kurtis Gregory (3)

The Missouri state legislator and former Mizzou Tigers football player sponsored legislation that was signed into law in 2023 that put the Tigers ahead of the game in terms of NIL compensation. Today, Gregory should schedule a hearing on the Tigers’ squandering of their advantage.

After a 4–0 start that wasn’t terribly impressive, Mizzou no-showed its first big test at Texas A&M. The Tigers were trampled 41–10 in College Station, seemingly crumbling after a couple of questionable calls went against them at the start of the game. The score was 34–0 before Missouri got on the board, and the Aggies more than doubled them in total yardage (512–254).

Missouri tackled poorly, covered poorly, couldn’t run effectively and got a poor game from veteran quarterback Brady Cook. Other than that, everything was great.

Missouri’s chances of making the playoff: Maybe that win over Vanderbilt will be worth something in the committee room. But a blowout loss will hurt, and given the light (by SEC standards) overall schedule, the Tigers might have to go 10–2, which would entail beating either Alabama or Oklahoma, in addition to everyone else on the schedule.

Lincoln Riley (4)

He took the USC Trojans job in late 2021, figuring the Pac-12 would be a manageable route to the playoff. Then USC moved to the Big Ten, and let’s just say that road trips in that league have not been enjoyable for Lincoln & Co.

USC lost at Michigan on Sept. 21, failing to hold a late lead. Then USC lost at Minnesota on Saturday, giving up two long, fourth-quarter touchdown drives. Losing to the Wolverines in front of more than 100,000 fans is one thing; losing to the Golden Gophers, who came in 2–3 and winless vs. power-conference competition, is something else entirely.

It’s almost like traveling multiple time zones takes a toll on a team that shows up in the fourth quarter or something. Enjoy the revenue checks, Trojans!

USC’s chances of making the playoff: The Trojans may need to win out, which would entail beating Penn State and Notre Dame. A third loss seems likely to be a disqualifying development in terms of making the Big Ten title game, and perhaps from an at-large standpoint as well.

Minnesota quarterback Max Brosmer runs for a touchdown against USC. / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The ghost of Terence McKenna (5)

The late ethnobotanist and “mystic” was a Cal alum who posited that eating psychedelic mushrooms helped humans advance beyond their primitive forebears. (This has been evocatively labeled the “Stoned Ape Theory.”) 

McKenna was a classic Cal intellectual hippie. Though he doesn’t seem like the type to be overly interested in football, he might have been amused by the Calgorithm movement of sardonically “woke” football fans of the Golden Bears. And he might thus have been disappointed by the crushing collapse Cal suffered against the Miami Hurricanes, blowing a 25-point lead in the second half. The pileup of incremental misfortunes that led to this loss were truly stunning—and truly Cal-like.

California’s chances of making the playoff: It’s not happening. But the Calgorithm is encouraged to keep churning out the content.

Atlantic Coast Conference fans outside of Coral Gables and Dallas (6)

It’s peak conspiracy season in the ACC, with fans declaring that the fix is in on behalf of the Miami Hurricanes and SMU Mustangs. Three replay review decisions have got some people in the ACC’s very large footprint scanning the skies for black helicopters.

Two of the calls have benefited Miami, which is the highest-ranked ACC team at the moment. An overturned Virginia Tech Hail Mary took the potential winning points off the board against Miami last week, and a no-call on a targeting review kept the Hurricanes in the game at Cal on Saturday night. The overturned Hokies touchdown probably was the right call, whereas the targeting no-call came under heavy criticism from the ESPN crew calling the game.

Then there was an SMU fumble that was overturned against Louisville on Saturday afternoon. Upon retaining possession, the Mustangs scored the winning touchdown to improve to 5–1. That bang-bang play looked like it might be too close to overturn, but in the end it was. The replay analyst on the broadcast announced his surprise when the review decision came in.

The ACC’s chances of getting multiple teams in the playoff: With two still unbeaten (Miami and Pittsburgh) and Clemson very much revived after the opening flop against Georgia, pretty good at the moment. Certainly, the ACC’s chances for multiple bids seems stronger than the Big 12’s. And by God if it takes a little extra effort from the replay review center in Charlotte, get it done. (Kidding. Mostly.)

Tom Brady (7)

The greatest quarterback of them all has to be aghast at the current state of QB play at his alma mater, the Michigan Wolverines. They’re on QB No. 3 now: 25-year-old, seventh-year, third-school guy Jack Tuttle. Things are so bad that Tuttle’s 98-yard, one-touchdown, one-interception effort in a loss to Washington is viewed as a sign of hope.

Michigan’s chances of making the playoff: Only if the forward pass is outlawed sometime this month.

Derk-Jan Dijk and Malcolm von Schantz (8)

They are the lead authors on a study paper entitled, “Timing and Consolidation of Human Sleep, Wakefulness, and Performance by a Symphony of Oscillators.” In other words, they’ve studied circadian rhythms—and this season is putting those rhythms to the ultimate stress test in terms of kickoff times (some very late, some very early) and cross-country travel.

The returns so far in the Big Ten are not pretty. Teams traveling two or more time zones to play are 1–8, and 2–7 against the spread. As the cross-country trips pile up, the cumulative effect on the West Coast teams going East multiple times could be substantial. The symphony of oscillators might churn out some discordant melodies.

West Coast Big Ten teams’ chances of making the playoff: Oregon Ducks or bust at this point.

Lumberjacks (9)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights coach Greg Schiano might have started the keep-chopping-wood mantra that has become something of a cliché now among coaches. But it’s worked for him—Rutgers was 4–0 this season heading into its game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

That’s when the wood stopped getting chopped. What Rutgers lacks offensively cannot be overcome solely with defense and special teams. The Knights gave up just 14 points to the Cornhuskers, but scored just seven—and that came with four minutes left in the game. A whopping nine Rutgers possessions ended in Nebraska territory with a single touchdown to show for it. That included a blocked punt that set up the Knights on the Nebraska 2-yard line, but they failed to score.

Rutgers’s chances of making the playoff: Not out of it, especially when you look at a schedule that is devoid of the Big Ten’s remaining unbeaten—no Ohio State, no Oregon, no Indiana. But points will have to be scored eventually to keep the improbable dream alive.

Desireé Reed-Francois (10)

The first-year Arizona Wildcats athletic director looked like she was walking into a promising situation—a returning star quarterback (Noah Fifita), a returning star wide receiver (Tetairoa McMillan) and an accomplished coach (Brent Brennan) who had just been hired by her predecessor. But something is being lost in translation—or at least on the way to the end zone.

After losing to the Texas Tech Red Raiders, 28–22, and dropping to 3–2, 1–2 in the Big 12, Arizona ranks third in the league in yards per play but 15th in points per game. After scoring 61 points in the season opener against New Mexico, the Wildcats have scored a total of 74 points in the four games since. A nice win over Utah has been sandwiched on either side by losses to Kansas State and Tech.

Arizona’s chances of making the playoff: Not great, but the only teams that appear to be out of the Big 12 championship game race at this point are the Oklahoma State Cowboys, Baylor Bears and Kansas Jayhawks.

McMillan runs ball while defended by Texas Tech's Macho Stevenson. / Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta (11)

The UNLV mega-boosters who have their names on the football facility at UNLV had never enjoyed their fandom more than this year—until Friday night. UNLV capped off an eventful run in the spotlight with an overtime loss to Syracuse at home, spoiling a 4–0 start on the season amid a high-profile player defection and much realignment drama. Their first AP Top 25 ranking in school history was short-lived.

UNLV’s playoff chances: Still alive. The Rebels should have a good chance of reaching the Mountain West Conference title game, which they would have to win while actively rooting against an undefeated American Athletic Conference champion.

Brett Yormark (12)

Shortly after he was hired as Big 12 commissioner, the TCU Horned Frogs went on a charmed run to the national championship game. With Texas and Oklahoma on the way out of the league, TCU looked like a candidate to lead the conference into the new era.

Since then, TCU is 8–10. The bottom fell out Friday night with a loss to previously inept Houston, dropping the Frogs to 3–3 overall, 1–2 in conference play. The 2022 team looks more and more like a one-hit wonder.

TCU’s chances of making the playoff: Only if the Hypnotoad works some serious mojo on the rest of the Big 12.

The Buzzin’ Dozen 

Each week The Dash projects the 12-team playoff field as if today were Selection Sunday. As always, the rankings are based on what has actually transpired this season, not preseason predictions. Feel free to disagree:

1. Texas Longhorns (SEC champion, automatic bid)
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten champion, automatic bid)
3. Miami Hurricanes (ACC champion, automatic bid)
4. BYU Cougars (Big 12 champion, automatic bid)
5. Oregon Ducks (at-large bid)
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (at-large bid)
7. Indiana Hoosiers (at-large bid)
8. Georgia Bulldogs (at-large bid)
9. Alabama Crimson Tide (at-large bid)
10. Pittsburgh Panthers (at-large bid)
11. Iowa State Cyclones (at-large bid)
12. Boise State Broncos (Mountain West champion, automatic bid)

On the bubble: Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Clemson, SMU, Army, Navy, Nebraska.

First-round matchups: Boise State at Oregon; Iowa State at Penn State; Pittsburgh at Indiana; Alabama at Georgia.

First-round byes: Texas, Ohio State, Miami, BYU.