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Kirk Herbstreit’s Orange Bowl Prediction Proved Eerily Accurate

Late turnover made ESPN analyst look very smart.

Kyle Koster

Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Micah Shrewsberry and quarterback Riley Leonard (13) celebrates defeating the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Micah Shrewsberry and quarterback Riley Leonard (13) celebrates defeating the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
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Notre Dame fought back from a sleepy first half and overcame a 10–0 deficit to get past Penn State in the Orange Bowl and will now play for the national championship. It was a much-needed thrilling game in a College Football Playoff that hasn't featured many compelling contests.

Who could have seen that coming? Well, it wan't a total shot in the dark to suggest that a pick 'em game would be a 60-minute affair decided late. But ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit's gets high marks for his level of specificity.

"The difference in this game will be a critical turnover late," he predicted pregame. "Notre Dame will get it ... they'll turn it into points. That'll be the difference."

Before anyone goes to wild slapping him on the back, he was slightly off with his final score crystal ball, saying it'd be a 24–20 type of game when it was a 27–24 margin that manifested.

Still, pretty good.

When you make as many predictions as Herbstreit, you're going to get a lot of them way wrong. So it's important to remember the times you look like a genius.

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Kyle Koster
KYLE KOSTER

Kyle Koster is an assistant managing editor at Sports Illustrated covering the intersection of sports and media. He was formerly the editor in chief of The Big Lead, where he worked from 2011 to '24. Koster also did turns at the Chicago Sun-Times, where he created the Sports Pros(e) blog, and at Woven Digital.

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