One Number That Sums Up 10 Top Group of 6 Teams in 2026

Let’s take a timeout in this article from the narratives of Group of 6 struggle that characterize so much college football discussion today: this will be a fun year outside the Power 4.

Why? Every league is wide open, from the acknowledged two deepest (the American and reconstituted Pac-12) to Conference USA and the MAC, perceived as the weakest leagues in FBS. Not every team was picked over in the transfer portal—New Mexico and Western Michigan standing as two prominent examples—and a number of inbound transfers from all levels will spice up their new teams. The Group of 6 having its guaranteed playoff spot number capped at one could also be a blessing in disguise: less top-down Power 4 resentment, more stakes toward the end of the season.

With all this in mind, here’s a look at one number that will define the chances of 10 top Group of 6 contenders in 2026.

Boise State: 1

That’s the number of one-possession games the Broncos played in 2025—a 25–24 win at Utah State on Nov. 28. Boise State played all over the map in ’25, beating 10-win UNLV twice and losing four blowouts—the Broncos need consistency in ’26, and 2024 Mountain West passing champ quarterback Maddux Madsen must shake off a down season in order to provide it.

Boise State Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen warms up prior to the LA Bowl. — Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen will be key to the Broncos competing for the Group of 6 College Football Playoff spot. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

James Madison: .844

That’s new Dukes coach Billy Napier’s career winning percentage in Sun Belt play at Louisiana from 2018 to ’21—a 27–5 record, not counting a win and two losses in the conference championship. Cast off from Florida, Napier inherits a roster picked over by now-UCLA coach Bob Chesney but has two early opportunities to make non-conference splashes (Liberty on Sept. 5, San Diego State on Sept. 19).

Liberty: 4

That’s the number of starters the Flames return on their offensive line: Joep Engbers, Aaron Fenimore, D.J. Geth and Christian Williams. If Liberty—4–8 a year ago—wants to contend in Conference USA once again, it’s going to need to run the football, and the Flames have the trench strength to open holes for Duke transfer running back Peyton Jones and others.

Memphis: 7 1/2

That’s the number of sacks Tigers defensive lineman J’Mond Tapp recorded in ’25 for Southern Miss, fourth in the Sun Belt. Tapp is one of three key Golden Eagles transfers (with cornerback Ian Foster and linebacker Mike Montgomery) joining coach Charles Huff as he takes over for now-Arkansas coach Ryan Silverfield, and bids to keep the most successful era in Memphis football history going.

Navy: 6

That’s the number of rushing touchdowns Midshipmen quarterback Braxton Woodson scored last season in limited duty, including two in a game against VMI that saw him average 25.7 yards per carry (not a typo). Woodson is tasked with replacing Blake Horvath, who helped Navy win 21 games in the past two years—if he’s nearly as good and the defense holds up, look out.

Navy’s Braxton Woodson smiles as they defeated the Cincinnati Bearcats in the Liberty Bowl. — Navy quarterback Braxton Woodson steps in for Blake Horvath, one of the most celebrated players in recent Midshipmen history. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

New Mexico: 22.3

That’s the number of points per game the Lobos allowed in ’25, the fewest they’ve given up since a 9–4 campaign in 2007 under coach Rocky Long. Second-year coach Jason Eck has completely reinvented New Mexico’s identity with the help of his linebacker son Jaxton Eck, and the Lobos have the personnel and the schedule (UNLV at home, just one extreme non-conference test against Oklahoma) to make a CFP run.

San Diego State: 14

That’s the number of career rushing touchdowns scored by Aztecs wide receiver Bert Emanuel Jr., making an intriguing position switch from the quarterback position where he racked up 1,116 rushing yards for Central Michigan and San Diego State. He’ll complement a formidable running game paced by running back Lucky Sutton, as well as a defense looking to follow up the sixth-best scoring season in FBS (15.4 points per game).

Troy: 11

That’s the number of sacks defensive end Donnie Smith tallied in part-time duty last year—a number good enough to lead the Sun Belt a year after Smith plied his trade for East Central Community College in Decatur, Miss. Smith’s continued success is essential to a year three breakthrough for coach Gerard Parker, as are two early wins over Sam Houston and Alabama State before a Sept. 19 road trip to Missouri.

UNLV: 27

That’s the number of games played for Oklahoma and Auburn by UNLV quarterback Jackson Arnold, who inherits the quarterback position from signal-caller Anthony Colandrea, now at Nebraska. The Rebels’ strong running game will minimize Arnold’s adjustment period—can UNLV seize on a schedule whose only Power 4 obstacle (California) comes at home?

Western Michigan: 7

That’s the number of offensive starters Western Michigan returns in ’26, a gobsmacking number for a 10-win MAC team. If Western Michigan suffers from the rest of the league’s perennial financial doldrums, it doesn’t act like it—and a Sept. 26 home date with fellow Broncos, Boise State, could be an ideal showcase for coach Lance Taylor’s squad.

Catch up on Sports Illustrated’s “One Number” college football series with our posts on the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC.

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