Post-Week 10 Bowl Projections for the 2024 College Football Season

A spate of upsets on the margins of the CFP shuffled the deck.

Louisville's Tyler Shough passes during his team's upset of Clemson. / Ken Ruinard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024—the day that things get serious.

That's right—we're talking about the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings of the year Tuesday evening. All eyes will be on ESPN as college football's powers-that-be unveil their first assessment of the '24 season.

However, as that has not happened yet, we are continuing to work off the AP Poll and College Football Reference's Simple Rating System for our weekly bowl projections. This week was a doozy for the group of teams with the greatest effect on the bowl picture—those on the margins of the CFP. Clemson? Iowa State? Texas A&M? All suffered defeat at the hands of Louisville, Texas Tech and South Carolina, respectively.

With the knowledge that the AP Poll and CFP rankings will inevitably differ, let's dive into this week's projections. Commentary follows.

Post-Week 10 Bowl Projections For the 2024 College Football Season

GAME	LOCATION	DATE	PROJECTED MATCHUP
Celebration Bowl	Atlanta	Dec. 14	Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
Camellia Bowl	Montgomery, Ala.	Dec. 14	Rutgers vs. Georgia Southern
Frisco Bowl	Frisco, Texas	Dec. 17	Marshall vs. Western Kentucky
Boca Raton Bowl	Boca Raton, Fla.	Dec. 18	Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State
LA Bowl	Inglewood, Calif.	Dec. 18	Oregon State vs. UNLV
New Orleans Bowl	New Orleans	Dec. 19	James Madison vs. Liberty
Cure Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 20	Eastern Michigan vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Gasparilla Bowl	Tampa	Dec. 20	Boston College vs. Arkansas
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 1	Austin	Dec. 20	No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Texas
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 2	University Park, Pa.	Dec. 21	No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Penn State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 3	Columbus	Dec. 21	No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 4	Knoxville, Tenn.	Dec. 21	No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Tennessee
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Conway, S.C.	Dec. 23	Miami-Ohio vs. Texas State
Potato Bowl	Boise, Idaho	Dec. 23	Ohio vs. San Jose State
Hawaii Bowl	Honolulu	Dec. 24	Sam Houston vs. Fresno State
Detroit Bowl	Detroit	Dec. 26	Wisconsin vs. Toledo
Rate Bowl	Phoenix	Dec. 26	Michigan vs. Baylor
68 Ventures Bowl	Mobile, Ala.	Dec. 26	Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Birmingham Bowl	Birmingham	Dec. 27	North Texas vs. Florida
Armed Forces Bowl	Fort Worth	Dec. 27	Navy vs. West Virginia
Liberty Bowl	Memphis	Dec. 27	Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
Holiday Bowl	San Diego	Dec. 27	Duke vs. Colorado
Las Vegas Bowl	Las Vegas	Dec. 27	Missouri vs. Washington State
Fenway Bowl	Boston	Dec. 28	Memphis vs. NC State
Pinstripe Bowl	Bronx, N.Y.	Dec. 28	Nebraska vs. Louisville
New Mexico Bowl	Albuquerque	Dec. 28	Connecticut vs. Maryland
Pop-Tarts Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 28	Kansas State vs. Syracuse
Arizona Bowl	Tucson	Dec. 28	Western Michigan vs. Colorado State
Military Bowl	Annapolis, Md.	Dec. 28	Tulane vs. Georgia Tech
Alamo Bowl	San Antonio	Dec. 28	California vs. Iowa State
Independence Bowl	Shreveport, La.	Dec. 28	Arizona State vs. Army
Music City Bowl	Nashville	Dec. 30	Minnesota vs. Ole Miss
ReliaQuest Bowl	Tampa	Dec. 31	Texas A&M vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl	El Paso, Texas	Dec. 31	Virginia Tech vs. Washington
Citrus Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 31	Iowa vs. LSU
Texas Bowl	Houston	Dec. 31	South Carolina vs. Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl	Glendale, Ariz.	Dec. 31	No. 12 Boise State or No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 BYU
Peach Bowl	Atlanta	Jan. 1	No. 10 Notre Dame or No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Rose Bowl	Pasadena, Calif.	Jan. 1	No. 9 Indiana or No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Oregon
Sugar Bowl	New Orleans	Jan. 1	No. 11 Alabama or No. 6 Texas vs. No. 3 Miami
Gator Bowl	Jacksonville	Jan. 2	Oklahoma vs. SMU
First Responder Bowl	Dallas	Jan. 3	Virginia vs. TCU
Duke's Mayo Bowl	Charlotte	Jan. 3	Illinois vs. Pittsburgh
Bahamas Bowl	Nassau	Jan. 4	Buffalo vs. Jacksonville State
Orange Bowl	Miami Gardens, Fla.	Jan. 9	Sugar Bowl winner vs. Peach Bowl winner
Cotton Bowl	Arlington, Texas	Jan. 10	Fiesta Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner
National Championship	Atlanta	Jan. 20	Orange Bowl winner vs. Cotton Bowl winner

Notable Potential Bowl Matchups

Note the return of ex-Conference USA-mates Marshall and Western Kentucky to the Frisco Bowl; this space previously alluded to their insane meeting in 2014... Oregon State and UNLV (LA Bowl) met Oct. 19, with the Rebels winning 33–25; that may be cause for bowl executives to nix this matchup, though who knows in a highly elastic college football world... James Madison and Liberty (New Orleans Bowl) are separated by less than two hours of drive time; this would be their second postseason meeting after the Flames won 26–21 in the first round of the FCS playoffs.

Alabama and Texas (CFP first round) have split two meetings over the past two years, but they haven't met in the postseason since the Crimson Tide won 2009's national championship... Notre Dame and Penn State (CFP first round) used to play with relative regularity, but haven't played since 2007... Boise State and Ohio State (CFP first round) have never played... Both of Indiana and Tennessee's (CFP first round) meetings have been in bowl games—the Peach Bowl after the 1987 season and the Gator Bowl after the 2019 season. The Volunteers won both... Navy and West Virginia (Armed Forces Bowl), who aren't that far apart, haven't played since 1999... Cincinnati beat Vanderbilt (Liberty Bowl) in the 2011 Liberty Bowl, 31–24... Kansas State and Syracuse (Pop-Tarts Bowl) have three postseason matchups under their belt, including the final pre-BCS Fiesta Bowl in 1997 and the controversial first Pinstripe Bowl in 2010... Tulane and Georgia Tech (Military Bowl) are the two most recent teams to leave the SEC, doing so in 1965 and 1963, respectively... Iowa and LSU (Citrus Bowl) haven't met in that game since their legendary meeting after the 2004 season.

Potential CFP quarterfinal history: the Nittany Lions and Georgia's (Peach Bowl) first bowl meeting since 2015; the Fighting Irish and Bulldogs' first bowl meeting since 1980; the Hoosiers' first Rose Bowl trip since 1967; Miami and Alabama's (Sugar Bowl) first bowl meeting since their Sugar Bowl determined the 1992 national title... Bluebonnet Bowl rematch, anyone? Oklahoma and SMU (Gator Bowl) played there in 1968... Semifinal shenanigans: Indiana could meet BYU in the Cotton Bowl for the first time since their epic 1979 Holiday Bowl, while the Hurricanes will have a shot at de facto hosting Penn State or Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl in rematches of 1980s epics.

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