Reseeding the College Football Playoff Ahead of Semifinals

Ohio State has been a juggernaut in the playoff after a disappointing regular-season loss to Michigan.

Ohio State quarterback Will Howard celebrates during the Rose Bowl. / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

Then there were four.

The College Football Playoff has arrived at a state most fans have become accustomed to in recent years, with the once 12-strong field now whittled down to the Final Four. Two rounds are down and two more beckon before we reach an end date in Atlanta. Thankfully, the inaugural tournament has now started to live up to the billing as the calendar has flipped to 2025 and a slate of quarterfinals produced some truly magical and unforeseen moments. 

Through it all, we have arrived at a quartet of historic programs ready to play two more times to win the national championship. It’s been awhile since they’ve been in this spot, too, with the Ohio State Buckeyes being the most recent to win a national championship in 2014. It’s been two decades without a title for the Texas Longhorns, while the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions haven't won it all since the late 1980s.

Who looks most likely to wind up holding up that golden cylinder? Through the quarterfinals, here’s a reseeding of the existing CFP field.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

Actual seed: No. 8

First round: Beat No. 9 Tennessee, 42–17.

Last round: Beat No. 1 Oregon, 41–21.

Next opponent: No. 5 Texas, Cotton Bowl semifinal, Jan. 10.

It is sometimes hard to divorce what transpired against the Michigan Wolverines at The Horseshoe at the end of November from the juggernaut that we’ve seen in the playoff. On one hand, this is what OSU was always supposed to be—the best team in the land and one with more talent than basically any other program following its work this offseason building an incredible roster. Still, the Buckeyes have been doubted coming into each of their CFP matchups … and turned around and left no doubt that they’re the team to beat for the title right now. It’s not just one star player, either—like wide receiver Jeremiah Smith looking like the second coming of Julio Jones as a true freshman—but rather, the collective of the team operating at such a high level across all three phases that has to really strike fear in upcoming opponents.

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2. Penn State Nittany Lions

Actual seed: No. 6

First round: Beat No. 11 SMU, 38–10.

Last round: Beat No. 3 Boise State, 31–14.

Next opponent: No. 7 Notre Dame, Orange Bowl semifinal, Jan. 9.

Say what you want about the path James Franklin’s team has taken to get to South Florida next week and the level of competition they’ve faced, but there’s a lot to be said for taking care of business and showing the potential for much more. While PSU got a bit of a scare from Boise State when the Broncos cut the lead to three points in the second half of the Fiesta Bowl, the Nittany Lions’ response in subsequently putting some distance back on the scoreboard was impressive. Franklin and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki made things tougher than they should have on New Year’s Eve by not handing the ball to Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton more (7.6 yards per carry), but it honestly wouldn’t be shocking to see this run continue if they can actually put eight quarters of full effort together. Quarterback Drew Allar needs to play more even, but when you have Tyler Warren doing Tyler Warren things, the passing game tends to sort itself out.

DREW ALLAR AND TYLER WARREN GET PENN STATE ON THE BOARD FIRST‼️ pic.twitter.com/R4cCIwK4yO

— ESPN (@espn) January 1, 2025

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Actual seed: No. 7

First round: Beat No. 10 Indiana, 27–17.

Last round: Beat No. 2 Georgia, 23–10.

Next opponent: No. 6 Penn State, Orange Bowl semifinal, Jan. 9.

Keep doubting this group at your own peril, because all they’ve been doing since the loss to the Northern Illinois Huskies is prove people wrong. They navigated a terrible tragedy ahead of the Sugar Bowl to put together their most convincing game yet on the big stage of the playoff, thumping Georgia in all three phases to get a giant monkey off the program’s back and win a major bowl game for the first time since 1993. Quarterback Riley Leonard might be the signal-caller you trust most of those remaining to come up with a play that moves the sticks, and the Fighting Irish defense remains as fast and physical as ever. Health is a bit of a concern going into South Florida, though, and the one reason that gives you any bit of pause, with several key linemen and star tailback Jeremiyah Love banged up, plus two fewer days of rest than their opponents. As they’ve shown, however, the Irish are perfectly capable of navigating around such impediments.

Which version of Texas will show up in the semifinals? / Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

4. Texas Longhorns

Actual seed: No. 5

First round: Beat No. 12 Clemson, 38–24.

Last round: Beat No. 4 Arizona State 39–31 (2OT).

Next opponent: No. 8 Ohio State, Cotton Bowl semifinal, Jan. 10.

Which version of Texas are we going to get at what amounts to a home game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas? Is it the one who looked fairly dominant in the first half against Clemson and Arizona State and was standing tall in goal line stands with regularity? Or is it the one who seems incapable of seizing control and putting away opponents by abandoning the run game and tough defense that they should be leaning on? Matchup-wise and talent-wise, the Longhorns are perfectly capable of winning their semifinal against Ohio State, but it remains to be seen if they can actually live up to that kind of billing based on what we’ve seen in their past three games.

Out of the Bracket

5. Georgia Bulldogs

Actual seed: No. 2

Last round: Lost to No. 7 Notre Dame, 23–10.

Carson Beck’s absence and Gunner Stockton making his first start at quarterback were not the reason why Kirby Smart’s team lost to the Irish down in New Orleans—rather, it was the same kind of inconsistency that has plagued the team all season. They didn’t rush the passer like they did last time out against Texas, nor did they run the ball all that well. The offensive line was largely a mess and mistakes (like fumbles in the red zone) only compounded things. It was still a good, maybe even overachieving season, for Georgia, given its flaws and difficult schedule, but that won’t mean much for fans accustomed to being the elite program that all others look to as the standard in college football.

6. Arizona State Sun Devils

Actual seed: No. 4

Last round: Lost to No. 5 Texas, 39–31 (2OT).

Thank you to Kenny Dillingham, Cam Skattebo and the Sun Devils for saving what had been a blowout festival in the College Football Playoff this season. The bruising tailback in particular, after he had gotten rid of a little water weight, was phenomenal in the Peach Bowl and well deserving of those offensive MVP honors as he cemented himself in ASU lore. There will be a lot of chatter around that targeting/non-targeting call in the fourth quarter, but the bottom line is the Big 12 champs acquitted themselves well and are certainly a program to watch.

Lanning (right) and Oregon did not live up to their No. 1 seed billing. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

7. Oregon Ducks

Actual seed: No. 1

Last round: Lost to No. 8 Ohio State, 41–21.

The questions surrounding Dan Lanning in big games are probably going to pop back up after that no-show against the Buckeyes. The program is still well positioned to keep taking bites at the apple and winning the national championship that Phil Knight remains in hot pursuit of. There was a bit of rust early for the Ducks and they never recovered, with uncharacteristic performances from their offensive line (gave up eight sacks after allowing 13 all season coming in) and defense marring what was still an incredibly successful season that ended with a conference title in their first year in the Big Ten. That doesn’t give Oregon fans any solace after watching that beatdown in Pasadena, Calif., but it should be what they take away from this run.

8. Boise State Broncos

Actual seed: No. 3

Last round: Lost to No. 6 Penn State, 31–14.

The Broncos played far more competitively than the final score indicated but just couldn’t get over some early stumbles to recreate some of that typical Fiesta Bowl magic. While there will be plenty of debate over the potential rest factor taking some of the edge off a team, the fact is they never got those long Ashton Jeanty runs to take some pressure off their offense to do more in the passing game, and were simply overpowered a bit defensively. The ending wasn’t what they wanted, but it will still go down as a historic campaign as they more than answered the questions about the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion belonging on this level.

9. Clemson Tigers

Actual seed: No. 12 

Results: Lost to No. 5 Texas, 38–24.

There was no surprise Dabo Swinney magic in store for the Tigers in Austin, but Clemson fans have to at least be encouraged at what Cade Klubnik did in the second half, making plays down the field with young wide receivers. That saved their first-round game from being a complete blowout, but issues stopping the run proved to be an Achilles’ heel when it came to really getting the ACC champs closer than one score.

10. Tennessee Volunteers 

Actual seed: No. 9

Results: Lost to No. 8 Ohio State, 42–17.

It was all setting up for one of the great SEC moments in the playoffs, a stream of fans in orange taking over The Horseshoe and a potential statement win for a program that has been scratching at the surface of getting back to the big time. Alas, they were run off the field almost right away by the Buckeyes, with the normally salty defense a shell of itself and no run game to speak of outside of Nico Iamaleava scrambling around. Of all the first-round blowouts, this one surprised the most in terms of just how uncompetitive the team was.

11. Indiana Hoosiers

Actual seed: No. 10

Results: Lost to No. 7 Notre Dame, 27–17.

The scores in the final minutes made the scoreboard look respectable, but make no mistake, the Hoosiers were outclassed and overmatched in their first taste of major postseason action. The defense got pushed around early, the offense was MIA most of the night and all of Curt Cignetti’s brash nature appears to have disappeared in between his pregame TV appearances and actually taking the field. It was a banner year no matter what in Bloomington, Ind., but the team did itself no favors in convincing the general public it was for real with its effort.

12. SMU Mustangs

Actual seed: No. 11

Results: Lost to No. 6 Penn State, 38–10.

Pretty much from start to finish against the Nittany Lions, SMU represented four quarters of kindling to detractors who thought it did not belong in the College Football Playoff. That doesn’t retrospectively mean the selection committee got it wrong, but it will be tough for Mustangs fans to reconcile a dream debut campaign in the ACC with what transpired in their final two games. Quarterback Kevin Jennings will be a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender in 2025, but he might be having nightmares about Dominic DeLuca picking off his passes until next fall.

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