Miami's Sheldon McClellan leads college hoops' projected top transfers

Miami's Sheldon McClain leads our list of the projected top scoring transfers in college basketball.

This week on SI.com, we've been releasing data from a college basketball statistical projection system developed by economist Dan Hanner with assistance from SI's Luke Winn. Part I featured our projected top 100 scorers, top 20 rebounders and top 20 in assists, and it contains a more in-depth description of the statistical model. Part II featured the projected top 50 freshman scorers, and part III was the top 50 breakout scorers. Today, we unveil our forecast of the top 100 transfer scorers according to raw points per game.

The most difficult players to project in college basketball are transfers. Recruiting rankings help us do a decent job of identifying high-impact freshmen, and for returning players, shot volume, efficiency, rebounding rates and assist rates are all correlated fairly highly over time. But transfers between Division I teams often perform quite differently as a result of switching coaches, teammates and offensive systems. We've adjusted their projections for changes in competition level, and plugged them into their new rotations, but don't be surprised if some players on this list significantly out- or under-perform these stats due to changes in environment.

What we're certain of is that there are a lot of important transfers in 2014-15, including players who will have big roles on potentially ranked teams. Dan Hanner ran projections on every transfer with D-I experience from the top 11 conferences -- the football power five plus the Atlantic 10, Big East, AAC, Missouri Valley, Mountain West and West Coast -- and it wasn't difficult to find 100 potential rotation players.

Rank	name	class	pos.	new team / prev. TEam	PPG	Prev. PPG	ORTG	Poss. (%)
1	Sheldon McClellan	Jr.	SF	Miami (Fla.) / Texas	15.1	13.5	114	24
2	Jalen Jones	Sr.	SF	Texas A&M / SMU	13.9	14.0	109	24
3	Matt Carlino	Sr.	PG	Marquette / BYU	13.5	13.7	106	23
4	Trevor Lacey	Jr.	SG	N.C. State / Alabama	13.1	11.3	109	23
5	Katin Reinhardt	So.	SG	USC / UNLV	12.9	10.1	105	22
6	Julien Lewis	Jr.	SG	Fresno State / Texas	12.6	11.2	110	22
7	Jordan Price	So.	SG	La Salle / Auburn	12.5	5.4	105	23
8	Bryce Dejean-Jones	Sr.	SG	Iowa State / UNLV	12.4	13.6	106	23
9	Kyle Wiltjer	Jr.	PF	Gonzaga / Kentucky	12.3	10.2	122	22
10	Angel Rodriguez	Jr.	PG	Miami (Fla.) / Kansas Sate	12.2	10.9	112	23

Now at Miami, Sheldon McClellan averaged 12.4 points per game in two seasons at Texas :: David E. Klutho/Sports Illustrated

Sheldon McClellan (1) played his first two seasons at Texas, where he was quietly one of the country's most efficient freshman scorers in 2011-12. The model projects him to regain that form at Miami, which lost its primary shot-taker from last season, Rion Brown, and needs McClellan and new point guard Angel Rodriguez (10) to carry a significant load. Marquette should benefit greatly from Matt Carlino's graduate transfer from BYU; the Golden Eagles got next-to-no offense out of the point-guard spot in '13-14, and will look to Carlino (3) and Deonte Burton to emerge as double-digit scorers.

rank	name	class	pos.	new team / prev. team	ppg	prev. ppg	ortg	poss. (%)
11	Antoine Mason	Sr.	SG	Auburn / Niagara	11.9	25.6	110	22
12	Josh Gray	Jr.	PG	LSU / Texas Tech	11.8	9.3	102	24
13	Terry Whisnant	Jr.	SG	East Carolina / Florida State	11.5	5.2	120	19
14	Stefan Moody	Jr.	PG	Ole Miss / Florida Atlantic	11.4	15.7	106	24
15	Kedren Johnson	Jr.	PG	Memphis / Vanderbilt	11.3	13.5	106	24
16	Savon Goodman	Jr.	SF	Arizona State / UNLV	11.3	3.6	102	25
17	Byron Wesley	Sr.	SF	Gonzaga / USC	11.0	17.8	113	22
18	Trey Zeigler	Sr.	SG	TCU / Pittsburgh	11.0	4.4	107	23
19	Anthony Hickey	Sr.	PG	Oklahoma State / LSU	10.8	8.4	101	21
20	Joe Coleman	Jr.	SG	Saint Mary's / Minnesota	10.5	8.7	112	21

Antoine Mason (11) was the nation's second-leading scorer -- behind only Doug McDermott -- last season at Niagara, putting up 25.6 points per game. While the model considers Mason a valuable asset for Auburn, it forecasts a steep dropoff in scoring due to him sharing shots with fellow guards K.T. Harrell and Tahj Shamsid-Deen, and facing tougher defenses in the SEC. Byron Wesley (17) was a 17.8 points-per-game scorer at USC, but figures to be more of a role player in a balanced Gonzaga offense that could have four double-digit scorers.

rank	name	class	pos.	new team / prev. team	ppg	prev. PPG	ORTG	Poss. (%)
21	Jesse Morgan	Sr.	SG	Temple / Massachusetts	10.2	13.4	109	21
22	Cody Doolin	Sr.	PG	UNLV / San Francisco	10.1	13.0	108	19
23	Jabarie Hinds	Jr.	PG	Massachusetts / West Virginia	10.1	7.4	97	24
24	Rodney Purvis	So.	SG	Connecticut / North Carolina State	9.9	8.3	106	22
25	Ahmad Starks	Sr.	PG	Illinois / Oregon State	9.8	10.4	110	19
26	Aaron Bright	Sr.	PG	Saint Mary's / Stanford	9.8	5.9	107	19
27	Aaron Brown	Jr.	SF	Saint Joseph's / West Virginia	9.7	1.2	103	21
28	Jaylen Bond	Jr.	PF	Temple / Texas	9.6	2.8	111	19%
29	Aaron Cosby	Jr.	SG	Illinois / Seton Hall	9.6	12.6	109	22
30	Keith Hornsby	Jr.	SG	LSU / UNC Asheville	9.2	15.0	109	20

Illinois is adding two quality transfers in Ahmad Starks (25) and Aaron Cosby (29); for a team that had one of the lowest ratios of assisted field goals last season (just 44.0 percent), Starks' point-guard skills should help. Rodney Purvis (24), a former McDonald's All-American who left N.C. State for UConn, should step in and be an effective complementary scorer to Ryan Boatright.

rank	name	class	pos.	New Team / prev. team	ppg	prev. ppg	ORTG	poss. (%)
31	Achraf Yacoubou	Jr.	SG	Saint Louis / Villanova	9.1	2.9	95	22
32	Stanton Kidd	Sr.	PF	Colorado State / N.C. Central	9.0	14.5	117	18%
33	Bryn Forbes	Jr.	SG	Michigan State / Cleveland State	8.9	15.6	105	21
34	Terence Smith	Sr.	SG	Ole Miss / Tennessee Martin	8.9	14.6	109	20
35	Jonathan Holton	Jr.	SF	West Virginia / Rhode Island	8.9	10.2	100	21%
36	Dantiel Daniels	Jr.	PF	Colorado State / Southern Illinois	8.8	7.7	117	18%
37	Sheldon Jeter	So.	SF	Pittsburgh / Vanderbilt	8.7	5.5	104	22
38	Cleon Roberts	So.	SG	La Salle / Georgia Southern	8.7	8.7	104	20
39	Ricky Tarrant	Jr.	PG	Alabama / Tulan	8.7	15.7	104	22
40	T.J. Cline	So.	PF	Richmond / Niagara	8.7	7.9	113	19

Colorado State could have four D-I transfers in its '14-15 rotation, and our model places them all in the top 100: Stanton Kidd (32), Dantiel Daniels (36), Antwan Scott (71) and John Gillon (80). Kidd is a little-known forward from N.C. Central who appears to be a real asset; he was the most efficient scorer (and best rebounder) on a team that went 15-1 in the MEAC two seasons ago. Terence Smith (34) could be a sleeper at Ole Miss; he made 44.7 percent of his threes at Tennessee-Martin last season and rarely turned the ball over.

rank	name	class	pos.	new team / prev. team	ppg	prev. ppg	ortg	poss. (%)
41	Julian Royal	Jr.	PF	George Mason / Georgia Tech	8.6	1.7	104	22
42	Luke Fischer	So.	C	Marquette / Indiana	8.6	2.8	106	19
43	Remy Abell	Jr.	SG	Xavier / Indiana	8.5	4.0	116	19
44	Bishop Daniels	Jr.	SG	Rutgers / Miami (Fla. )	8.5	5.0	98	19
45	Brandon Perry	Jr.	PF	San Diego / Cal St. Northridge	8.4	6.3	108	21
46	Keith Shamburger	Sr.	PG	Missouri / Hawaii	8.4	9.3	101	22
47	K.C. Ross-Miller	Sr.	PG	Auburn / New Mexico State	8.4	8.3	112	18
48	Jordan Baker	Jr.	SG	San Jose State / Pepperdine	8.3	11.4	101	22
49	Justin Edwards	Jr.	SF	Kansas Sate / Maine	8.3	16.8	107	21
50	Richaud Pack	Sr.	PG	Maryland / North Carolina A&T	8.3	17.0	109	20

Justin Edwards (49) and Richaud Pack (50) have moved up to the big-time after former lives as volume scorers on bad, small-conference teams. They could out-perform the model's expectations if they earn enough playing time at Kansas State and Maryland, respectively. Luke Fischer (42) figures to become Marquette's starting center as soon as he's eligible to play in mid-December. The Indiana transfer is 6-11 and the Golden Eagles have no other players taller than 6-7.

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rank	name	class	pos.	new team / prev. team	ppg	prev. ppg	ortg	poss. (%)
51	Justin Martin	Sr.	SF	SMU / Xavier	8.2	11.7	108	19
52	Robert Upshaw	So.	C	Washington / Fresno State	8.2	4.1	98	22
53	Jon Octeus	Sr.	PG	Purdue / Colorado State	8.2	13.4	107	19
54	Darion Clark	So.	PF	USC / Charlotte	8.1	6.2	99	23
55	Quevyn Winters	Jr.	SF	Washington / Duquesne	8.0	9.6	102	21
56	Darius Leonard	Sr.	PF	Wake Forest / Campbell	8.0	10.2	106	19
57	Myke Henry	Jr.	SF	DePaul / Illinois	7.8	3.2	106	22
58	Anthony Lee	Sr.	PF	Ohio State / Temple	7.6	13.6	110	21
59	Stephen Hurt	Jr.	C	Kansas State / Lipscomb	7.6	11.5	107	20
60	Abdel Nader	Jr.	PF	Iowa State / Northern Illinois	7.6	13.1	97	26

Robert Upshaw (52) should be a moderate-level scorer at Washington, but the 7-footer's main value will be as a shot-blocker and rim protector for a team that had one of the Pac-12's worst defenses last season. Nader (60) is one of three transfers -- along with Bryce Dejean-Jones (8) and Jameel McKay -- who'll help Iowa State contend for the Big 12 title.

rank	name	class	pos.	new team / prev team	ppg	prev. ppg	ortg	poss. (%)
61	Christophe Varidel	Sr.	SG	Alabama / Florida Gulf Coast	7.5	6.1	106	20
62	Jamal Aytes	So.	PF	BYU / UNLV	7.5	2.8	103	21
63	Jeremiah Kreisberg	Sr.	PF	Northwestern / Yale	7.5	5.6	102	21
64	Devonta Pollard	Jr.	PF	Houston / Alabama	7.2	3.9	101	21
65	Dominic Woodson	So.	PF	Tennessee / Memphis	7.1	2.5	97	24
66	Mike Shaw	Jr.	PF	Bradley / Illinois	7.1	0.9	99	22
67	Paul Jesperson	Jr.	SG	Northern Iowa / Virginia	7.1	4.7	102	17
68	Michael Kessens	So.	PF	Alabama / Longwood	7.1	13.7	99	21
69	Charles Mitchell	Jr.	PF	Georgia Tech / Maryland	7.0	6.5	97	22
70	Alex Murphy	Jr.	SF	Florida / Duke	7.0	1.0	103	19

Dominic Woodson (65) was a highly ranked prospect who didn't pan out at Memphis, but if he gets in shape at Tennessee, he could be an asset for a team that desperately needs frontcourt help. Former Duke forward Alex Murphy (70) is eligible in December at Florida, and he could outperform the model's projections if he beats out talented freshman Devin Robinson for minutes on the wing.

Rank	name	class	pos.	new team / prev. team	ppg	prev. ppg	ortg	Poss. (%)
71	Antwan Scott	Sr.	PG	Colorado State / Grambling State	7.0	15.7	110	18
72	Robert Sampson	Sr.	PF	Georgia Tech / East Carolina	6.9	9.1	102	20
73	Dimitri Batten	Sr.	SG	Boston College / Old Dominion	6.8	11.0	95	24
74	Demarco Cox	Sr.	C	Georgia Tech / Ole Miss	6.8	4.2	102	19
75	Desmond Simmons	Sr.	PF	Saint Mary's / Washington	6.8	5.2	110	18
76	Ryan Bass	Sr.	PG	Dayton / Oakland	6.6	9.3	106	21
77	Ibby Djimde	Jr.	PF	Southern Illinois / Illinois	6.6	0.2	96	19%
78	Deuce Bello	Jr.	SF	Missouri / Baylor	6.5	2.4	96	22
79	Ian Chiles	Sr.	PG	Tennessee / IUPUI	6.5	15.8	98	23
80	John Gillon	So.	PG	Colorado State / Ark.-Little Rock	6.4	10.6	115	18

Dimitri Batten (73) is projected to give Olivier Hanlan some scoring assistance at Boston College, but will Batten actually help the Eagles' offense? He was an aggressive but inefficient scorer at Old Dominion last season, making just 28.7 percent of his threes and turning the ball over at a fairly high rate for a shooter. Georgia Tech lost its entire front line from last season, and transfers Robert Sampson (72) and Demarco Cox (74) are its ho-hum replacements.

rank	name	class	pos.	new team / prev. team	ppg	prev. ppg	ortg	poss. (%)
81	Chase Fischer	Jr.	SG	BYU / Wake Forest	6.4	4.5	107	22
82	Calvin Godfrey	Sr.	PF	Memphis / Southern	6.4	13.1	104	19
83	Eric Weary	Jr.	SG	Houston / New Mexico State	6.3	1.1	101	19
84	Keaton Miles	Jr.	PF	Arkansas / West Virginia	6.0	2.7	112	17
85	Frank Rogers	Jr.	PF	San Jose State / San Francisco	6.0	1.8	99	18
86	Junior Lomomba	So.	SG	Providence / Cleveland State	5.9	5.9	100	23
87	Aaron Brown	Sr.	SF	Boston College / Southern Miss	5.8	9.9	105	19
88	Derrell Robertson Jr.	Jr.	PF	San Francisco / DePaul	5.6	1.9	106	17
89	Farad Cobb	Jr.	PG	Cincinnati / Chattanooga	5.5	5.7	99	21
90	Jon Horford	Sr.	PF	Florida / Michigan	5.2	3.8	115	18

Jon Horford (90) might have played a bigger senior-year role had he stayed at Michigan, which lost Jordan Morgan and Mitch McGary from its front line. As a graduate transfer at Florida, Horford figures to get backup minutes behind Chris Walker and Dorian Finney-Smith and add value to the Gators as a rebounder rather than a scorer.

rank	name	class	pos.	new team / prev. team	ppg	prev. ppg	ortg	poss. (%)
91	Nick Zeisloft	Jr.	SG	Indiana / Illinois State	5.2	6.9	110	15
92	Cavon Baker	Jr.	PG	Houston / Florida	5.0	2.6	101	19
93	Angelo Choi	Jr.	PF	San Diego State / Arizona	4.9	1.9	107	20
94	M.J. Rhett	Sr.	PF	Ole Miss / Tennessee St.	4.7	10.9	104	19
95	Moses Ayegba	Sr.	PF	Nebraska / Georgetown	4.6	1.9	99	17
96	Dwight Tarwater	Sr.	SF	California / Cornell	4.6	7.1	104	18
97	Ricky Kreklow	Sr.	SF	Creighton / California	4.5	5.5	104	18
98	Montray Clemons	Jr.	PF	San Francisco / DePaul	4.1	1.3	99	21
99	Devin Coleman	Jr.	SG	Temple / Clemson	3.8	5.4	101	21
100	Joe Thomas	Sr.	PF	Miami / Niagara	3.8	3.4	99	16

Most of the players in this bracket figure to be bit players at best, and some may not crack rotations at all. Cal transfer Ricky Kreklow (97) is one who might outperform projections if Creighton opts to use him as an undersized (6-6) four in a spread-out offense -- the role that Ethan Wragge often played for the Bluejays last season.