Ranking the top teams in college basketball: 351-1

SI ranks every team in college basketball, starting with No. 351 Grambling State, and moving to No. 1, which will be revealed on Tuesday, Nov. 4.

We simulated the season 10,000 times so we could tell you the most likely national champion -- and how the other 350 teams fall in line after that. The answer to "Who's No. 1?" will be revealed Tuesday on SI.com and in Sports Illustrated's College Basketball Preview Issue, but we're unveiling the rankings in stages: 351-151 on Oct. 30, 150-51 on Oct. 31, 50-26 on Nov. 3, and 25-1 on Nov. 4. (SI.com's player and conference statistical projections can be found here.)

SI's 2014-15 rankings are according to a statistical projection system developed by the economist Dan Hanner with assistance from SI's Luke Winn. It's a bottom-up model that on offense, projects every Division I player's efficiency and shot volume using past college statistics (and stats of similar players over more than a decade), recruiting ratings (which have some predictive value over immediate performance and development curves), and the quality of their head coach and teammates. These stats are then placed within the context of each team's rotation, and used to make a team offensive efficiency projection.

The simulation is run 10,000 times -- and teams are ranked by their median outcome -- to account for significant variance in player performance. While past stats and recruiting rankings have some predictive value, college players are at such a developmental stage in their careers that their performance can vary far more year-to-year than their counterparts in the NBA. In the model's simulations, if a player performs well below expectations, his playing time will diminish to make room for rising teammates. Injuries and depth also come into play: A team such as Louisville, which has 11 projected quality ACC players on its roster, including two returning point guards, is projected to fare well in a vast majority of simulations. A team such as Syracuse, on the other hand, which has just one true point guard on its roster -- and an untested freshman at that -- is at more risk of negative outcomes.

SI.com's 2014-15 College Basketball Season Preview

The model's defensive efficiency ratings are projected based on individual tempo-free defensive stats (rebound, steal and block percentages), plus a few key adjustments that try to account for team-wide aspects of defensive performance. The first is based on roster turnover: If the roster is largely the same, a team's defensive performance from 2013-14 is given a lot of weight; if turnover is significant, the coach's historical defensive performance is given more weight. Experience also matters: Teams with lots of freshmen tend to make more mistakes on defense than do upperclass-laden squads. And height is a critical factor, particularly at center: Taller teams tend to be stingier on D. (The model also prevents the defensive factors most affected by luck -- opponents' free-throw percentage and three-point percentage -- from carrying over year-to-year. Therefore North Carolina, which had a solid defense in '13-14 based largely on those "luck" factors, isn't expected to make a big improvement on D.)

*Table Key: Proj. Off. Eff. = Median projected offensive efficiency from 10,000 simulations; Proj. Def. Eff. = Median projected defensive efficiency from 10,000 simulations; Ret. Min% = percentage of overall minutes the roster returns; Top 100 = Number of players who ranked in RSCI top 100 out of high school; JUCO Top 100 = Number of players who ranked in aggregate junior college top 100; Avg. Star Rating = Rating of the rest of the roster, not including Top 100 or Juco Top 100.

rank	team	proj. off. EFF.	proj. def. EFF.	conf. rank	ret. min%	top 100	juco top 100	avg. star rating
1st	Kentucky	123.5	94.2	1st in SEC	65%	10	0	3.0
2nd	Arizona	119.4	91.2	1st in P12	64%	7	2	3.3
3rd	Wisconsin	124.1	95.1	1st in B10	82%	2	0	2.8
4th	Duke	123.9	95.6	1st in ACC	47%	10	0
5th	Kansas	121.4	93.7	1st in B12	51%	10	0	3.2
6th	Florida	119.5	94.3	2nd in SEC	41%	7	0	2.6
7th	Louisville	117.4	92.8	2nd in ACC	56%	9	1	2.9
8th	Villanova	117.7	94.5	1st in BE	78%	7	0	2.6
9th	Virginia	114.4	91.8	3rd in ACC	69%	5	0	3.0
10th	Gonzaga	117.1	95.5	1st in WCC	58%	4	0	2.6
11st	North Carolina	116.5	95.4	4th in ACC	70%	10	0	2.7
12nd	Texas	115.9	95.0	2nd in B12	94%	7	0	3.0
13rd	Ohio St.	112.2	92.5	2nd in B10	48%	8	0	2.9
14th	San Diego St.	112.4	92.8	1st in MWC	67%	7	0	2.6
15th	Iowa St.	116.7	96.4	3rd in B12	66%	3	2	2.7
16th	Wichita St.	116.2	96.4	1st in MVC	61%	0	3	2.5
17th	SMU	113.1	94.3	1st in Amer	72%	2	1	2.9
18th	VCU	113.3	94.6	1st in A10	69%	2	0	2.9
19th	Connecticut	112.5	94.8	2nd in Amer	41%	5	1	2.8
20th	Iowa	119.4	101.5	3rd in B10	66%	2	1	2.8
21st	Michigan St.	113.8	97.1	4th in B10	49%	4	0	3.0
22nd	Kansas St.	110.5	94.3	4th in B12	58%	0	1	2.8
23rd	Syracuse	112.3	95.9	5th in ACC	41%	7	0	3.3
24th	Michigan	118.1	100.9	5th in B10	46%	3	0	2.9
25th	Utah	112.8	96.5	2nd in P12	79%	2	2	2.2

Top-ranked Kentucky isn't the only elite team with depth. Were you aware that Duke (4th), Kansas (5th) and North Carolina (11th) all have the same amount of top-100 recruits (according to the RSCI) as the Wildcats? Meanwhile, the top-10 team with the least top-100 recruits, Wisconsin, is projected to have the nation's best offense, powered by Wooden Award candidate Frank Kaminsky, who was largely regarded as a three-star prospect out of high school.

rank	team	proj. off. EFF.	proj. def. EFF.	conf. rank	ret. min%	top 100	juco top 100	avg. star rating
26th	Stanford	114.1	97.6	3rd in P12	51%	8	0	3.0
27th	Oklahoma	115.1	98.6	5th in B12	70%	0	2	2.9
28th	Arkansas	114.8	98.4	3rd in SEC	64%	3	1	2.9
29th	Pittsburgh	113.7	97.4	6th in ACC	69%	3	1	2.8
30th	Harvard	111.2	95.3	1st in Ivy	62%	1	0	2.5
31st	Georgetown	115.2	98.7	2nd in BE	60%	7	0	2.9
32nd	Memphis	112.2	96.7	3rd in Amer	34%	8	3	2.2
33rd	Maryland	109.9	94.8	6th in B10	51%	7	0	2.7
34th	Notre Dame	118.1	102.9	7th in ACC	62%	2	0	3.1
35th	UCLA	114.0	99.5	4th in P12	34%	5	0	3.0
36th	Nebraska	109.5	96.2	7th in B10	70%	0	0	2.8
37th	Illinois	108.4	95.4	8th in B10	59%	4	0	3.0
38th	Dayton	113.5	99.9	2nd in A10	54%	1	1	2.8
39th	Miami FL	112.3	98.8	8th in ACC	34%	2	1	3.1
40th	Minnesota	112.7	99.2	9th in B10	63%	0	2	2.9
41st	Colorado	108.8	95.8	5th in P12	91%	3	0	2.8
42nd	Xavier	112.7	99.3	3rd in BE	54%	3	0	3.2
43rd	BYU	115.0	101.4	2nd in WCC	74%	0	1	2.5
44th	LSU	109.5	96.9	4th in SEC	37%	4	1	2.5
45th	Cincinnati	108.5	96.5	4th in Amer	46%	1	3	3.1
46th	Indiana	112.2	100.0	10th in B10	45%	6	0	2.5
47th	Oklahoma St.	110.2	98.4	6th in B12	39%	3	2	2.6
48th	Florida St.	109.3	97.6	9th in ACC	65%	3	2	2.7
49th	Wyoming	108.9	97.6	2nd in MWC	70%	0	0	2.3
50th	California	112.0	100.4	6th in P12	57%	2	0	2.6

Is the expanded ACC really the nation's deepest conference? Our projections have 10 Big Ten teams in the top 50 (including Indiana at 46), compared to nine for the ACC, and six each for the Big 12 and Pac-12. A sign the Mountain West is due for a down year: Its second-highest ranked team, Wyoming, checks in at No. 49.

rank	team	proj. off. EFF.	proj. def. EFF.	conf. rank	ret. min%	top 100	juco top 100	avg. star rating
51st	Mississippi	112.9	101.3	5th in SEC	69%	0	1	2.8
52nd	Tulsa	107.3	96.3	5th in Amer	72%	0	1	2.4
53rd	Colorado St.	114.5	102.8	3rd in MWC	59%	1	4	2.5
54th	Alabama	105.4	94.9	6th in SEC	62%	5	0	2.7
55th	NC State	110.9	99.9	10th in ACC	63%	8	1	3.0
56th	Baylor	113.7	102.6	7th in B12	47%	3	3	2.5
57th	Georgia St.	114.4	103.4	1st in SB	57%	2	0	2.2
58th	St. John's	107.2	96.9	4th in BE	66%	5	1	2.3
59th	Massachusetts	108.6	98.2	3rd in A10	56%	2	0	2.6
60th	Louisiana Tech	109.5	99.1	1st in CUSA	47%	0	1	2.2
61st	Providence	109.8	99.4	5th in BE	44%	4	0	3.0
62nd	George Washington	108.7	98.5	4th in A10	57%	0	0	2.4
63rd	Oregon	113.9	103.2	7th in P12	25%	2	3	3.4
64th	Georgia	110.0	99.7	7th in SEC	72%	0	1	2.7
65th	UC Irvine	104.7	95.0	1st in BW	83%	1	0	2.1
66th	UNLV	107.4	97.5	4th in MWC	23%	5	0	2.7
67th	Marquette	107.7	98.1	6th in BE	39%	7	0	3.1
68th	Saint Mary's	112.4	102.5	3rd in WCC	35%	0	1	2.7
69th	Washington	110.6	101.0	8th in P12	62%	2	1	2.7
70th	Northern Iowa	114.2	104.4	2nd in MVC	88%	0	0	2.2
71st	West Virginia	112.4	102.7	8th in B12	62%	3	4	3.1
72nd	South Carolina	111.3	101.9	8th in SEC	76%	2	0	2.7
73rd	Penn St.	108.6	99.4	11th in B10	72%	0	1	2.6
74th	Richmond	108.0	99.1	5th in A10	73%	0	0	2.1
75th	Texas A&M	105.8	97.1	9th in SEC	64%	3	0	2.7

Georgia State (57th) should be one scary mid-major: The R.J. Hunter- and Ryan Harrow-led Panthers are projected to run away with the Sun Belt -- and be a higher-quality team than major-conference neighbors Georgia (64th) or Georgia Tech (139th). Louisiana Tech looks like Conference USA's best team for the second straight year; the Bulldogs tied for the league's regular-season title in '13-14 but Tulsa earned its automatic bid to the NCAAs.

rank	team	proj. off. EFF.	proj. def. EFF.	conf. rank	ret. min%	top 100	juco top 100	avg. star rating
76th	Auburn	112.2	102.9	10th in SEC	47%	2	1	2.5
77th	Tennessee	109.1	100.2	11th in SEC	28%	3	2	2.4
78th	Rhode Island	107.6	98.9	6th in A10	79%	1	1	2.6
79th	Seton Hall	107.6	99.3	7th in BE	47%	2	1	2.7
80th	Green Bay	108.6	100.2	1st in Horz	74%	0	0	2.0
81st	Boise St.	112.4	103.8	5th in MWC	61%	0	2	2.4
82nd	Creighton	111.5	103.1	8th in BE	44%	1	2	2.6
83rd	Fresno St.	111.7	103.3	6th in MWC	69%	2	2	2.7
84th	Clemson	105.7	97.9	11th in ACC	71%	1	0	2.9
85th	Purdue	108.7	100.7	12th in B10	48%	4	0	2.9
86th	Illinois St.	106.4	98.6	3rd in MVC	65%	0	3	2.4
87th	Northwestern	101.1	94.0	13th in B10	69%	1	0	2.8
88th	Manhattan	103.8	96.8	1st in MAAC	61%	1	0	2.2
89th	Siena	104.8	98.0	2nd in MAAC	99%	0	0	2.0
90th	Arizona St.	111.8	104.7	9th in P12	41%	1	4	2.6
91st	Iona	114.7	107.3	3rd in MAAC	49%	0	1	2.1
92nd	Old Dominion	105.9	99.2	2nd in CUSA	84%	0	1	2.1
93rd	Temple	111.7	104.6	6th in Amer	67%	0	0	2.8
94th	New Mexico	104.4	97.9	7th in MWC	38%	0	3	2.6
95th	Missouri	107.4	100.7	12th in SEC	37%	6	1	2.9
96th	New Mexico St.	110.2	103.4	1st in WAC	54%	0	0	2.3
97th	Houston	110.2	103.5	7th in Amer	43%	4	3	2.4
98th	La Salle	106.7	100.2	7th in A10	50%	1	0	2.2
99th	UC Santa Barbara	111.4	104.7	2nd in BW	68%	0	0	2.1
100th	Murray St.	110.0	103.4	1st in OVC	80%	0	3	2.4

The MAAC projects to be one of the nation's most tightly contested leagues, as its three title contenders -- Manhattan (88th), Siena (89th) and Iona (91st) -- are separated by just four spots in the rankings. Former mid-major Creighton (82nd) could be in for a difficult second season in the Big East after going 14-4 in Year 1. The model projects the Bluejays to finish eighth, between Seton Hall (79th) and Butler (102nd).

rank	team	proj. off. EFF.	proj. def. EFF.	conf. rank	ret. min%	top 100	juco top 100	avg. star rating
101st	Stephen F. Austin	107.5	101.1	1st in Slnd	60%	0	1	2.0
102nd	Butler	106.0	99.7	9th in BE	62%	1	0	2.7
103rd	Cleveland St.	109.0	102.6	2nd in Horz	53%	0	0	2.3
104th	Princeton	105.8	99.6	2nd in Ivy	60%	0	0	2.1
105th	Toledo	115.3	108.7	1st in MAC	79%	0	0	2.2
106th	San Francisco	110.2	103.9	4th in WCC	67%	0	3	2.3
107th	UTEP	106.1	100.4	3rd in CUSA	75%	0	1	2.4
108th	Texas Tech	107.4	101.8	9th in B12	41%	0	2	2.5
109th	Yale	105.5	100.2	3rd in Ivy	78%	0	0	2.1
110th	St. Bonaventure	108.8	103.3	8th in A10	55%	0	2	2.1
111th	Columbia	108.5	103.0	4th in Ivy	86%	0	0	2.0
112th	Belmont	111.2	105.8	2nd in OVC	59%	0	0	2.2
113th	Western Kentucky	106.3	101.2	4th in CUSA	60%	0	2	2.3
114th	NC Central	108.9	103.7	1st in MEAC	38%	0	0	2.1
115th	Long Beach St.	108.1	103.0	3rd in BW	61%	1	0	2.4
116th	Boston College	112.5	107.3	12th in ACC	67%	0	0	2.5
117th	Vanderbilt	104.8	100.1	13th in SEC	42%	2	0	2.9
118th	Portland	109.4	104.6	5th in WCC	78%	0	0	2.1
119th	American	102.5	98.4	1st in Pat	81%	0	0	2.1
120th	George Mason	105.3	101.2	9th in A10	57%	2	1	2.5
121st	USC	107.5	103.4	10th in P12	37%	4	0	2.7
122nd	Ohio	107.0	102.9	2nd in MAC	46%	1	1	2.1
123rd	Wofford	105.6	101.8	1st in SC	89%	0	0	2.0
124th	Evansville	107.7	103.9	4th in MVC	96%	0	2	2.1
125th	TCU	103.4	99.9	10th in B12	82%	2	0	2.5

Projected Ivy League second, third- and fourth-place finishers Princeton (104th), Yale (109th) and Columbia (111th) are more than 70 spots behind likely champ Harvard in our rankings. The OVC title race should be more interesting, with Belmont (112th) within shouting distance of perennial contender Murray State (100th), which brings back 80 percent of its minutes from last season.

rank	team	proj. off. EFF.	proj. def. EFF.	conf. rank	ret. min%	top 100	juco top 100	avg. star rating
126th	Virginia Tech	103.5	99.9	13th in ACC	48%	2	1	2.3
127th	Florida Gulf Coast	103.0	99.4	1st in ASun	52%	1	0	2.3
128th	Akron	105.8	102.3	3rd in MAC	76%	0	0	2.2
129th	Saint Louis	98.9	95.7	10th in A10	29%	0	0	2.7
130th	Washington St.	106.8	103.4	11th in P12	66%	0	1	2.5
131st	Morehead St.	106.6	103.2	3rd in OVC	64%	0	2	2.2
132nd	Wake Forest	105.4	102.3	14th in ACC	52%	1	0	2.6
133rd	Davidson	110.1	107.0	11th in A10	58%	0	0	2.2
134th	San Diego	106.1	103.2	6th in WCC	86%	0	0	2.0
135th	Western Michigan	106.5	103.6	4th in MAC	84%	0	0	2.1
136th	Indiana St.	103.1	100.4	5th in MVC	45%	0	1	2.3
137th	Mississippi St.	104.8	102.1	14th in SEC	74%	0	2	2.9
138th	Duquesne	110.0	107.2	12th in A10	66%	0	1	2.2
139th	Georgia Tech	101.8	99.4	15th in ACC	41%	3	0	2.6
140th	Southern Illinois	105.0	102.5	6th in MVC	60%	0	1	2.3
141st	Missouri St.	108.1	105.7	7th in MVC	63%	0	1	2.3
142nd	Cal Poly	106.4	104.1	4th in BW	62%	0	0	2.0
143rd	Kent St.	105.7	103.5	5th in MAC	68%	0	1	2.1
144th	Denver	110.3	108.1	1st in Sum	76%	0	0	2.0
145th	Stony Brook	105.9	104.0	1st in AE	41%	0	0	2.1
146th	Hofstra	107.6	105.7	1st in CAA	43%	0	0	2.2
147th	Coastal Carolina	103.7	102.0	1st in BSth	83%	0	0	2.0
148th	Brown	101.6	100.0	5th in Ivy	76%	0	0	2.0
149th	Holy Cross	103.9	102.4	2nd in Pat	84%	0	0	2.0
150th	Boston University	104.8	103.3	3rd in Pat	37%	0	0	2.3

Dunk City (127th) is forecasted to return to the NCAA tournament after missing out in '13-14. With Mercer having moved to the Southern Conference, Florida Gulf Coast is a strong favorite in the Atlantic Sun title race; the league's second-best team, Lipscomb, doesn't appear until 219th in our rankings.

rank	team	proj. off. EFF.	proj. def. EFF.	conf. rank	ret. min%	top 100	juco top 100	avg. star rating
151st	Army	108.6	107.1	4th in Pat	80%	0	0	2.1
152nd	Valparaiso	104.3	102.9	3rd in Horz	42%	0	0	2.2
153rd	Louisiana Lafayette	107.1	105.7	2nd in SB	50%	0	1	2.1
154th	Santa Clara	106.7	105.5	7th in WCC	63%	0	0	2.1
155th	Eastern Kentucky	109.6	108.3	4th in OVC	40%	0	1	2.0
156th	Middle Tennessee	102.1	100.9	5th in CUSA	37%	0	2	2.2
157th	High Point	111.3	110.1	2nd in BSth	77%	0	0	2.1
158th	Quinnipiac	109.1	108.0	4th in MAAC	58%	0	1	2.1
159th	Rutgers	105.8	104.7	14th in B10	52%	2	1	2.9
160th	Buffalo	108.3	107.2	6th in MAC	51%	0	1	2.2
161st	Charlotte	102.9	102.0	6th in CUSA	59%	2	0	2.4
162nd	Vermont	105.2	104.3	2nd in AE	26%	0	0	2.1
163rd	Rider	103.9	103.1	5th in MAAC	59%	0	0	2.1
164th	Eastern Michigan	100.1	99.3	7th in MAC	43%	0	2	2.2
165th	Sam Houston St.	105.6	104.9	2nd in Slnd	65%	0	0	2.0
166th	Nevada	104.8	104.1	8th in MWC	46%	0	1	2.3
167th	Milwaukee	104.8	104.3	4th in Horz	58%	0	0	2.0
168th	UCF	108.8	108.3	8th in Amer	49%	0	1	2.5
169th	Dartmouth	105.5	105.1	6th in Ivy	85%	0	0	2.0
170th	East Carolina	110.7	110.3	9th in Amer	70%	0	1	2.3
171st	Hawaii	108.3	107.9	5th in BW	49%	0	2	2.3
172nd	Northeastern	104.0	103.8	2nd in CAA	71%	0	0	2.0
173rd	Saint Joseph's	103.5	103.4	13th in A10	40%	0	0	2.7
174th	Bucknell	101.2	101.1	5th in Pat	55%	0	0	2.1
175th	Oral Roberts	108.4	108.4	2nd in Sum	63%	0	0	2.1

Our projections suggest that Louisiana Lafayette shouldn't be ignored in its first year after losing do-it-all guard Elfrid Payton to the NBA draft lottery. The Ragin' Cajuns (153rd) bring back a talented enough cast, led by forward Shawn Long, to remain near the top of the Sun Belt -- but there's a large gap between them and likely champion Georgia State.

rank	team	proj. off. EFF.	proj. def. EFF.	conf. rank	ret. min%	top 100	juco top 100	avg. star rating
176th	South Dakota St.	105.0	104.9	3rd in Sum	42%	1	0	2.1
177th	Miami OH	102.2	102.2	8th in MAC	59%	0	1	2.1
178th	Southern Miss	103.0	103.2	7th in CUSA	26%	0	1	2.0
179th	Detroit	105.3	105.5	5th in Horz	69%	1	0	2.3
180th	IPFW	107.8	108.2	4th in Sum	59%	0	1	2.0
181st	Lehigh	102.7	103.2	6th in Pat	75%	0	0	2.0
182nd	DePaul	107.9	108.5	10th in BE	50%	1	4	2.8
183rd	Northern Arizona	103.4	104.0	1st in BSky	84%	0	1	2.1
184th	North Dakota St.	102.8	103.4	5th in Sum	42%	0	0	2.0
185th	Bowling Green	97.3	97.9	9th in MAC	81%	0	1	2.0
186th	Cal St. Northridge	107.8	108.4	6th in BW	68%	0	0	2.3
187th	Drexel	101.9	102.6	3rd in CAA	41%	0	0	2.1
188th	Cal St. Fullerton	104.8	105.5	7th in BW	54%	0	0	2.1
189th	William & Mary	110.0	110.7	4th in CAA	56%	0	0	2.1
190th	Lafayette	111.5	112.5	7th in Pat	99%	0	0	2.0
191st	Mercer	104.4	105.5	2nd in SC	29%	0	1	2.0
192nd	Charleston Southern	107.0	108.2	3rd in BSth	52%	0	0	2.0
193rd	College of Charleston	99.9	101.2	5th in CAA	56%	1	0	2.2
194th	Northwestern St.	106.3	107.9	3rd in Slnd	54%	0	0	2.0
195th	Arkansas Little Rock	103.6	105.3	3rd in SB	76%	0	0	2.0
196th	Nebraska Omaha	104.3	106.0	6th in Sum	47%	0	0	2.0
197th	Wright St.	98.0	99.6	6th in Horz	41%	0	1	2.1
198th	Hartford	104.0	106.0	3rd in AE	80%	0	0	2.0
199th	Pepperdine	105.5	107.5	8th in WCC	55%	0	0	2.1
200th	Radford	108.4	110.6	4th in BSth	95%	0	0	2.0

The outlook for DePaul (182nd) hasn't improved after finishing 3-15 in the Big East in '13-14. The Blue Demons are forecasted to finish 10th in the league once again, which would make coach Oliver Purnell 5-for-5 in last-place finishes over the past five years.

rank	team	proj. off. EFF.	proj. def. EFF.	conf. rank	ret. min%	top 100	juco top 100	avg. star rating
201st	Oakland	109.1	111.3	7th in Horz	55%	0	0	2.2
202nd	Albany	104.3	106.5	4th in AE	40%	0	1	2.1
203rd	Seattle	101.5	103.7	2nd in WAC	74%	0	0	2.2
204th	Robert Morris	101.3	103.5	1st in NEC	57%	0	0	2.1
205th	Northern Illinois	97.0	99.1	10th in MAC	74%	0	0	2.2
206th	Gardner Webb	102.2	104.5	5th in BSth	48%	0	0	2.0
207th	Fairfield	99.1	101.3	6th in MAAC	77%	1	0	2.0
208th	Loyola Marymount	103.2	105.7	9th in WCC	32%	0	0	2.2
209th	Drake	104.5	107.0	8th in MVC	57%	0	0	2.2
210th	Air Force	101.6	104.1	9th in MWC	73%	0	0	2.1
211th	East Tennessee St.	105.2	107.9	3rd in SC	67%	0	0	2.1
212th	South Dakota	104.3	107.0	7th in Sum	72%	0	1	2.0
213th	Winthrop	105.2	108.1	6th in BSth	55%	0	0	2.0
214th	Bradley	102.4	105.3	9th in MVC	49%	1	1	2.4
215th	Monmouth	100.9	103.8	7th in MAAC	82%	0	0	2.2
216th	Cal St. Bakersfield	102.3	105.4	3rd in WAC	38%	0	0	2.1
217th	Weber St.	103.1	106.2	2nd in BSky	50%	0	0	2.2
218th	Eastern Washington	106.7	110.0	3rd in BSky	84%	0	0	2.0
219th	Lipscomb	104.7	107.9	2nd in ASun	81%	0	0	2.0
220th	Loyola Chicago	104.3	107.6	10th in MVC	75%	0	0	2.0
221st	Youngstown St.	105.5	108.9	8th in Horz	46%	0	0	2.2
222nd	St. Francis NY	99.7	103.1	2nd in NEC	51%	0	0	2.0
223rd	Portland St.	107.5	111.2	4th in BSky	50%	0	1	2.1
224th	Central Michigan	111.4	115.2	11th in MAC	93%	0	0	2.0
225th	Saint Peter's	99.4	102.9	8th in MAAC	82%	0	1	2.0

Just how weak is the WAC projected to be this season? The gap between the likely champ, New Mexico State, and our projected second- and third-place finishers, Seattle (203rd) and Cal-State Bakersfield (216th), is more than 100 spots in the rankings.

rank	team	proj. off. EFF.	proj. def. EFF.	conf. rank	ret. min%	top 100	juco top 100	avg. star rating
226th	USC Upstate	101.6	105.3	3rd in ASun	54%	0	0	2.0
227th	UC Davis	107.0	110.9	8th in BW	68%	0	0	2.3
228th	Alabama St.	102.8	106.6	1st in SWAC	98%	0	0	2.0
229th	Utah St.	103.0	106.9	10th in MWC	13%	0	0	2.0
230th	SE Missouri St.	106.9	111.0	5th in OVC	65%	0	2	2.2
231st	Incarnate Word	103.6	107.5	4th in Slnd	68%	0	0	2.0
232nd	UAB	100.6	104.5	8th in CUSA	28%	1	1	2.3
233rd	Tulane	104.8	108.9	10th in Amer	86%	0	0	2.1
234th	Marshall	102.0	106.0	9th in CUSA	63%	0	2	2.2
235th	Mount St. Mary's	104.5	108.7	3rd in NEC	49%	0	0	2.1
236th	Pacific	101.6	105.8	10th in WCC	16%	0	0	2.1
237th	UT Arlington	102.7	106.9	4th in SB	44%	0	0	2.2
238th	Towson	105.3	109.8	6th in CAA	35%	0	0	2.2
239th	Colgate	105.4	110.0	8th in Pat	71%	0	0	2.0
240th	Penn	100.4	104.8	7th in Ivy	38%	0	0	2.2
241st	Idaho	106.8	111.6	5th in BSky	61%	0	0	2.0
242nd	Florida Atlantic	101.4	106.1	10th in CUSA	77%	0	0	2.2
243rd	UNC Wilmington	100.5	105.3	7th in CAA	52%	0	1	2.1
244th	Hampton	96.7	101.5	2nd in MEAC	76%	0	0	2.0
245th	Grand Canyon	104.5	109.7	4th in WAC	37%	0	1	2.3
246th	Sacramento St.	105.9	111.2	6th in BSky	86%	0	0	2.1
247th	Navy	99.5	104.5	9th in Pat	90%	0	0	2.0
248th	San Jose St.	98.5	103.5	11th in MWC	73%	0	0	2.2
249th	South Florida	100.8	105.9	11th in Amer	29%	0	2	2.6
250th	Central Connecticut	103.6	108.9	4th in NEC	87%	0	0	2.0

The SWAC's Alabama State (228th) is the lowest-ranked of our projected conference champions. The Hornets bring back 98 percent of their minutes from a 19-13 team last season, and are well-positioned to make their third NCAA tournament trip under coach Lewis Jackson.

rank	team	proj. off. EFF.	proj. def. EFF.	conf. rank	ret. min%	top 100	juco top 100	avg. star rating
251st	Montana	105.7	111.1	7th in BSky	59%	0	0	2.1
252nd	Austin Peay	103.4	108.7	6th in OVC	56%	0	0	2.0
253rd	Fordham	103.8	109.2	14th in A10	62%	0	0	2.2
254th	James Madison	100.4	105.8	8th in CAA	57%	0	0	2.0
255th	Elon	104.3	110.1	9th in CAA	44%	0	0	2.1
256th	Arkansas St.	99.6	105.1	5th in SB	18%	0	1	2.1
257th	Oregon St.	102.0	107.9	12th in P12	31%	0	1	2.6
258th	NJIT	101.5	107.5	Ind.	88%	0	0	2.0
259th	UNC Asheville	104.3	110.5	7th in BSth	70%	0	0	2.0
260th	Eastern Illinois	102.6	108.9	7th in OVC	66%	0	0	2.1
261st	Northern Colorado	105.7	112.3	8th in BSky	60%	0	1	2.1
262nd	Georgia Southern	100.5	106.8	6th in SB	49%	0	0	2.1
263rd	Delaware	102.8	109.3	10th in CAA	39%	0	0	2.0
264th	Bryant	102.8	109.3	5th in NEC	60%	0	0	2.0
265th	Texas A&M CC	103.6	110.2	5th in Slnd	56%	0	0	2.0
266th	North Florida	104.0	110.7	4th in ASun	73%	0	0	2.1
267th	Utah Valley	102.3	108.9	5th in WAC	51%	0	0	2.1
268th	Jacksonville St.	101.6	108.6	8th in OVC	63%	0	0	2.0
269th	UTSA	103.7	110.9	11th in CUSA	41%	0	0	2.1
270th	Western Illinois	95.7	102.3	8th in Sum	62%	0	1	2.0
271st	Canisius	101.8	108.9	9th in MAAC	32%	0	0	2.0
272nd	Tennessee Tech	101.8	109.0	9th in OVC	52%	0	2	2.2
273rd	Texas St.	97.3	104.2	7th in SB	41%	0	0	2.0
274th	Northern Kentucky	105.7	113.3	5th in ASun	93%	0	0	2.0
275th	St. Francis PA	98.7	105.9	6th in NEC	97%	0	0	2.0

Oregon State (257th) projects to be the worst major-conference team in the country. The Beavers, which will be playing under first-year coach Wayne Tinkle, only bring back 31 percent of their minutes from last season, and lack a single player who ranked in the top 100 of the RSCI out of high school.

rank	team	proj. off. EFF.	proj. def. EFF.	conf. rank	ret. min%	top 100	juco top 100	avg. star rating
276th	Southern	97.2	104.4	2nd in SWAC	40%	0	0	2.0
277th	Montana St.	99.2	106.6	9th in BSky	53%	0	0	2.0
278th	UC Riverside	96.1	103.5	9th in BW	63%	0	1	2.0
279th	Illinois Chicago	99.1	106.9	9th in Horz	47%	0	0	2.1
280th	Chattanooga	101.5	109.5	4th in SC	67%	0	0	2.0
281st	North Dakota	100.4	108.4	10th in BSky	42%	0	1	2.1
282nd	UNC Greensboro	100.1	108.2	5th in SC	60%	0	0	2.0
283rd	Texas Southern	103.2	111.8	3rd in SWAC	31%	0	1	2.1
284th	Delaware St.	103.1	111.8	3rd in MEAC	63%	0	0	2.0
285th	North Texas	96.5	104.7	12th in CUSA	48%	1	1	2.1
286th	Rice	97.7	106.0	13th in CUSA	53%	0	0	2.1
287th	SIU Edwardsville	101.8	110.5	10th in OVC	68%	0	0	2.0
288th	FIU	99.2	107.9	14th in CUSA	46%	0	0	2.2
289th	Tennessee Martin	106.4	115.9	11th in OVC	48%	1	1	2.2
290th	Troy	99.7	108.5	8th in SB	20%	0	2	2.0
291st	Wagner	95.9	104.5	7th in NEC	25%	0	0	2.2
292nd	Coppin St.	101.6	110.8	4th in MEAC	69%	0	0	2.0
293rd	VMI	103.8	113.5	6th in SC	65%	0	0	2.0
294th	Texas Pan American	95.4	104.4	6th in WAC	32%	0	0	2.1
295th	South Alabama	99.6	109.1	9th in SB	42%	0	0	2.0
296th	UMKC	97.4	106.8	7th in WAC	36%	0	0	2.0
297th	Western Carolina	99.0	108.6	7th in SC	45%	0	0	2.0
298th	Marist	96.6	106.0	10th in MAAC	63%	0	0	2.0
299th	SE Louisiana	100.4	110.2	6th in Slnd	50%	0	0	2.0
300th	Binghamton	97.8	107.9	5th in AE	75%	0	0	2.1

FIU (288th), which had its beach-themed court damaged by a CrossFit-like competition during the offseason, could have a bummer of a '14-15 as well: It's projected to finish dead last in Conference USA, although North Texas (285th) and Rice (286th) should make it a decent competition for the cellar.

rank	team	proj. off. EFF.	proj. def. EFF.	conf. rank	ret. min%	top 100	juco top 100	avg. star rating
301st	Cornell	103.2	114.1	8th in Ivy	56%	0	0	2.0
302nd	Kennesaw St.	98.3	108.8	6th in ASun	80%	0	1	2.3
303rd	Louisiana Monroe	98.5	109.4	10th in SB	57%	0	1	2.0
304th	New Hampshire	95.0	105.6	6th in AE	59%	0	0	2.0
305th	Appalachian St.	97.1	108.2	11th in SB	67%	0	0	2.1
306th	Howard	92.9	103.5	5th in MEAC	99%	0	0	2.0
307th	Sacred Heart	97.4	108.8	8th in NEC	66%	0	0	2.0
308th	McNeese St.	99.0	110.6	7th in Slnd	65%	0	0	2.0
309th	Nicholls St.	98.2	109.8	8th in Slnd	59%	0	0	2.0
310th	Liberty	99.0	110.9	8th in BSth	38%	1	0	2.1
311th	Loyola MD	95.7	107.3	10th in Pat	73%	0	0	2.0
312th	Idaho St.	98.9	110.9	11th in BSky	47%	0	0	2.0
313th	Ball St.	97.1	109.2	12th in MAC	33%	0	0	2.2
314th	Bethune Cookman	99.8	113.1	6th in MEAC	73%	0	0	2.0
315th	Arkansas Pine Bluff	92.9	105.3	4th in SWAC	71%	0	0	2.0
316th	Niagara	96.0	109.1	11th in MAAC	40%	0	0	2.0
317th	Savannah St.	88.2	100.8	7th in MEAC	43%	0	0	2.0
318th	Alcorn St.	93.9	108.1	5th in SWAC	48%	0	0	2.1
319th	IUPUI	97.5	112.3	9th in Sum	47%	0	0	2.0
320th	Abilene Christian	100.4	115.7	9th in Slnd	70%	0	0	2.0
321st	Maine	99.4	114.6	7th in AE	72%	0	0	2.0
322nd	UMass Lowell	94.8	109.4	8th in AE	66%	0	0	2.1
323rd	South Carolina St.	96.3	111.2	8th in MEAC	53%	0	0	2.0
324th	Presbyterian	100.0	115.5	9th in BSth	89%	0	0	2.0
325th	Jackson St.	92.5	107.2	6th in SWAC	59%	0	0	2.1

Cornell (301st) has had a rough four seasons since making the Sweet 16 under Steve Donahue in 2010. The coach who followed him, Bill Courtney, has yet to crack .500, and his team projects to finish in the Ivy League basement for the second straight year.

rank	team	proj. off. EFF.	proj. def. EFF.	conf. rank	ret. min%	top 100	juco top 100	avg. star rating
326th	Longwood	97.6	113.2	10th in BSth	36%	0	0	2.1
327th	Campbell	100.2	116.2	11th in BSth	63%	0	0	2.2
328th	Fairleigh Dickinson	97.0	112.6	9th in NEC	48%	0	0	2.0
329th	Lamar	95.5	110.8	10th in Slnd	41%	0	0	2.0
330th	LIU Brooklyn	99.6	115.7	10th in NEC	45%	0	0	2.0
331st	Chicago St.	95.4	111.1	8th in WAC	33%	0	0	2.0
332nd	Furman	97.8	113.9	8th in SC	71%	0	0	2.0
333rd	The Citadel	101.2	118.0	9th in SC	76%	0	0	2.0
334th	Houston Baptist	95.2	111.3	11th in Slnd	58%	0	0	2.1
335th	Prairie View A&M	93.5	109.7	7th in SWAC	55%	0	1	2.0
336th	Jacksonville	99.8	117.4	7th in ASun	21%	0	0	2.1
337th	Southern Utah	94.2	111.0	12th in BSky	75%	0	0	2.0
338th	North Carolina A&T	92.2	109.2	9th in MEAC	45%	0	0	2.0
339th	Norfolk St.	92.9	110.3	10th in MEAC	22%	0	0	2.0
340th	Morgan St.	92.1	109.4	11th in MEAC	43%	0	0	2.0
341st	Samford	97.3	115.8	10th in SC	25%	0	0	2.1
342nd	New Orleans	93.6	111.5	12th in Slnd	42%	0	0	2.0
343rd	UMBC	93.1	111.1	9th in AE	57%	0	0	2.0
344th	Mississippi Valley St.	96.4	115.4	8th in SWAC	43%	0	0	2.0
345th	Alabama A&M	91.2	109.7	9th in SWAC	31%	0	0	2.0
346th	Tennessee St.	94.0	113.1	12th in OVC	11%	0	0	2.0
347th	Stetson	92.4	111.8	8th in ASun	44%	0	0	2.0
348th	MD Eastern Shore	95.0	118.9	12th in MEAC	36%	0	0	2.0
349th	Florida A&M	89.6	112.3	13th in MEAC	0%	0	0	2.0
350th	Central Arkansas	91.5	115.3	13th in Slnd	8%	0	0	2.0
351st	Grambling St.	94.3	119.7	10th in SWAC	59%	0	0	2.0

Grambling State finished last in the nation in margin of victory in '11-12 and '12-13, and second-to-last in '13-14. The Tigers had the nation's least efficient defense last season, and their best offensive player transferred away. The model, not surprisingly, projects them to be the worst team in Division I.