SI's projections for the best defenses in college basketball

The model's defensive projection is based on the individual tempo-free defensive stats (rebound, steal and block percentages), plus a few key adjustments that

The model's defensive projection is based on the individual tempo-free defensive stats (rebound, steal and block percentages), plus a few key adjustments that try to account for team-wide aspects of defensive performance. Last year's defensive performance gets a lot of weight unless there is a lot of roster turnover. If there is a lot of roster turnover, the coach's historical defensive performance gets more weight. Experience also matters: Teams with reliant freshmen tend to make more mistakes on defense than do upper-class laden squads. Height is also critically important, particularly at the center position.

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This offseason, we made one key addition to the defensive model. Obviously, teams have little control over their opponent's free-throw percentage. And Ken Pomeroy has shown that teams also have little control over the three-point percentage of their opposition. Our analysis of the data confirms that finding. When teams were particularly fortunate or unfortunate on free-throw defense and three-point defense, it did not tend to carry over to the next season. This is now accounted for in the model.

Ranking the top teams in college basketball: 351-1

North Carolina

The following table illustrates the importance of some of these factors and shows whether we expect each team's defense to be better or worse than last year. We are only presenting this table for the Top 100 teams because the recruiting data is less reliable lower in the rankings, and there is less certainty about whether teams will use a taller or younger lineup.

team	2013-14 defense	Was last year a fluke?	return mins	use of freshman	height of team	opponent FT & 3s	proj. defense
Kentucky	96.9	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	65%	MUCH LOWER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	94.2
Arizona	88.5	LY UNUSUALLY GOOD D	64%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	91.2
Wisconsin	97.6	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	82%	LOWER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	95.1
Duke	102.3	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	47%	MUCH HIGHER	TALLER	NORMAL	95.6
Kansas	96.3	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	51%	MUCH LOWER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	93.7
Florida	89.3	LY UNUSUALLY GOOD D	41%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	94.3
Louisville	90	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	56%	SIMILAR	TALLER	LUCKY	92.8
Villanova	94.5	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	78%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	94.5
Virginia	90.1	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	69%	SIMILAR	TALLER	NORMAL	91.8
Gonzaga	94.4	LY UNUSUALLY GOOD D	58%	SIMILAR	TALLER	NORMAL	95.5
North Carolina	95.4	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	70%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	LUCKY	95.4
Texas	98.4	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	94%	LOWER	TALLER	NORMAL	95.0
Ohio St.	89.6	LY UNUSUALLY GOOD D	48%	MUCH HIGHER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	92.5
San Diego St.	91.6	LY UNUSUALLY GOOD D	67%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	92.8
Iowa St.	99.9	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	66%	LOWER	TALLER	UNLUCKY	96.4
Wichita St.	93.3	LY UNUSUALLY GOOD D	61%	HIGHER	SIMILAR	LUCKY	96.4
SMU	94.7	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	72%	MUCH LOWER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	94.3
VCU	90.2	LY UNUSUALLY GOOD D	69%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	LUCKY	94.6
Connecticut	91.8	LY UNUSUALLY GOOD D	41%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	94.8
Iowa	102.7	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	66%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	101.5
Michigan St.	96.2	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	49%	SIMILAR	SHORTER	UNLUCKY	97.1
Kansas St.	94.8	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	58%	MUCH LOWER	TALLER	LUCKY	94.3
Syracuse	93.6	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	41%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	95.9
Michigan	102.1	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	46%	MUCH HIGHER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	100.9
Utah	96.5	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	79%	SIMILAR	TALLER	NORMAL	96.5
Stanford	97	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	51%	MUCH HIGHER	SIMILAR	UNLUCKY	97.6
Oklahoma	100.6	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	70%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	98.6
Arkansas	98.1	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	64%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	98.4
Pittsburgh	96.2	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	69%	MUCH LOWER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	97.4
Harvard	96.5	LY UNUSUALLY GOOD D	62%	SIMILAR	TALLER	NORMAL	95.3
Georgetown	102.1	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	60%	HIGHER	TALLER	NORMAL	98.7
Memphis	98.1	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	34%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	LUCKY	96.7
Maryland	95.5	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	51%	MUCH HIGHER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	94.8
Notre Dame	106.4	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	62%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	UNLUCKY	102.9
UCLA	97.3	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	34%	MUCH HIGHER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	99.5
Nebraska	96.1	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	70%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	96.2
Illinois	93.3	LY UNUSUALLY GOOD D	59%	LOWER	SHORTER	NORMAL	95.4
Dayton	99.8	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	54%	LOWER	SHORTER	NORMAL	99.9
Miami FL	100	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	34%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	98.8
Minnesota	100.4	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	63%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	UNLUCKY	99.2
Colorado	96.9	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	91%	LOWER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	95.8
Xavier	100.6	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	54%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	99.3
BYU	101.7	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	74%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	101.4
LSU	99.4	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	37%	SIMILAR	TALLER	NORMAL	96.9
Cincinnati	91.3	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	46%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	96.5
Indiana	97.5	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	45%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	100.0
Oklahoma St.	96.6	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	39%	HIGHER	TALLER	NORMAL	98.4
Florida St.	98.8	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	65%	HIGHER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	97.6
Wyoming	100.8	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	70%	HIGHER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	97.6
California	100.6	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	57%	LOWER	SIMILAR	UNLUCKY	100.4
Mississippi	102.7	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	69%	LOWER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	101.3
Tulsa	96.3	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	72%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	96.3
Colorado St.	107.7	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	59%	SIMILAR	SHORTER	UNLUCKY	102.8
Alabama	100	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	62%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	UNLUCKY	94.9
NC State	102.9	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	63%	LOWER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	99.9
Baylor	100	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	47%	HIGHER	SHORTER	NORMAL	102.6
Georgia St.	103.7	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	57%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	103.4
St. John's	96.8	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	66%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	96.9
Massachusetts	97.4	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	56%	MUCH HIGHER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	98.2
Louisiana Tech	96.1	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	47%	MUCH HIGHER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	99.1
Providence	102.2	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	44%	MUCH HIGHER	TALLER	NORMAL	99.4
George Washington	97.8	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	57%	MUCH HIGHER	SHORTER	LUCKY	98.5
Oregon	100.6	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	25%	MUCH HIGHER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	103.2
Georgia	99.1	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	72%	SIMILAR	SHORTER	NORMAL	99.7
UC Irvine	95.7	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	83%	LOWER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	95.0
UNLV	100.6	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	23%	MUCH HIGHER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	97.5
Marquette	100.2	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	39%	SIMILAR	SHORTER	NORMAL	98.1
Saint Mary's	101.3	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	35%	MUCH HIGHER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	102.5
Washington	104.5	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	62%	LOWER	TALLER	NORMAL	101.0
Northern Iowa	105.6	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	88%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	UNLUCKY	104.4
West Virginia	104.2	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	62%	LOWER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	102.7
South Carolina	102.3	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	76%	MUCH LOWER	TALLER	NORMAL	101.9
Penn St.	100.8	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	72%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	UNLUCKY	99.4
Richmond	97.5	LY UNUSUALLY GOOD D	73%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	99.1
Texas A&M	96.3	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	64%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	LUCKY	97.1
Auburn	106.5	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	47%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	UNLUCKY	102.9
Tennessee	94.8	LY UNUSUALLY GOOD D	28%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	100.2
Rhode Island	99	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	79%	LOWER	SIMILAR	LUCKY	98.9
Seton Hall	101.2	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	47%	MUCH HIGHER	SHORTER	NORMAL	99.3
Green Bay	98.4	LY UNUSUALLY GOOD D	74%	SIMILAR	SHORTER	NORMAL	100.2
Boise St.	104.7	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	61%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	103.8
Creighton	104.1	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	44%	HIGHER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	103.1
Fresno St.	105.4	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	69%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	103.3
Clemson	95	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	71%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	LUCKY	97.9
Purdue	101.2	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	48%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	100.7
Illinois St.	99.8	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	65%	LOWER	TALLER	NORMAL	98.6
Northwestern	94.2	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	69%	HIGHER	SIMILAR	LUCKY	94.0
Manhattan	96.5	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	61%	SIMILAR	TALLER	NORMAL	96.8
Siena	100.1	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	99%	MUCH LOWER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	98.0
Arizona St.	97.6	LY UNUSUALLY GOOD D	41%	SIMILAR	SHORTER	LUCKY	104.7
Iona	108.2	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	49%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	107.3
Old Dominion	101.1	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	84%	MUCH LOWER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	99.2
Temple	109.1	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	67%	LOWER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	104.6
New Mexico	96.1	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	38%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	UNLUCKY	97.9
Missouri	104.4	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	37%	HIGHER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	100.7
New Mexico St.	102.5	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	54%	MUCH HIGHER	SHORTER	UNLUCKY	103.4
Houston	108	LY UNUSUALLY BAD D	43%	SIMILAR	TALLER	NORMAL	103.5
La Salle	100.4	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	50%	MUCH HIGHER	SIMILAR	NORMAL	100.2
UC Santa Barbara	104.8	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	68%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	104.7
Murray St.	105	SIMILAR ROSTER or D	80%	SIMILAR	SIMILAR	NORMAL	103.4