SI projects every conference race in college basketball

From the ACC to the Pac-12, SI projects nine major-conference races in college basketball.

Sports Illustrated’s College Basketball Projection System simulates a given season 10,000 times in order to find the most frequent No. 1—this year, that would be North Carolina—and determine where the other 350 Division I teams fall in line. This marks the second year that SI’s preseason rankings have been decided by the projection system, a collaboration among economist Dan Hanner, SI producer and writer Chris Johnson and myself. The results from year one were promising: The system forecast—in exact order—the eventual top four teams in adjusted efficiency (Kentucky, Arizona, Wisconsin, Duke). It also predicted that title-game opponents Wisconsin and Duke would have the most efficient offenses, ranked all eight of the NCAA tournament No. 1 and No. 2 seeds among its Top 10, and produced the most accurate conference standings of any projection model, according to kenpom.com.

• MORE: See SI.com's complete college basketball preseason coverage

For offense, the system projects every player’s efficiency and shot volume by incorporating his past performance, recruiting rankings, development curves for similar Division I players, the quality of his teammates and his coach’s ability to develop and maximize talent. Those stats are weighted based on the team's rotation—including human intel on who’s expected to earn minutes—then used to produce each team’s offensive efficiency projection. (The 10,000 simulations account for significant variance in individual performances as well as injury scenarios.) Team defensive efficiency projections are based on a blend of individual stats (rebound, steal and block percentages), roster turnover (if churn is low, then 2014-15 performances in areas such as two-point field goal percentage are given a lot of weight; if high, then a coach’s historical defensive résumé matters more), experience (veterans have fewer lapses) and height (taller frontcourts make for stingier D).

The following is a Nov. 12 update of our system's projected conference-by-conference standings for 2015–16, taking into account players who've been ruled ineligible or suffered season-ending injuries after our initial publication:

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Rhode Island	13	5
2	Davidson	12	6
3	VCU	12	6
4	Dayton	12	6
5	Richmond	12	6
6	George Washington	11	7
7	St. Bonaventure	8	10
8	Saint Joseph's	8	10
9	Duquesne	8	10
10	Massachusetts	7	11
11	La Salle	7	11
12	Fordham	6	12
13	George Mason	5	13
14	Saint Louis	5	13

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	North Carolina	13	5
2	Duke	13	5
3	Virginia	13	5
4	Louisville	10	8
5	Notre Dame	10	8
6	Miami FL	10	8
7	Florida St.	9	9
8	NC State	9	9
9	Syracuse	9	9
10	Pittsburgh	9	9
11	Clemson	7	11
12	Georgia Tech	7	11
13	Wake Forest	7	11
14	Virginia Tech	6	12
15	Boston College	3	15

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Stony Brook	13	3
2	Vermont	12	4
3	Albany	12	4
4	New Hampshire	9	7
5	Hartford	7	9
6	Binghamton	6	10
7	UMass Lowell	5	11
8	UMBC	4	12
9	Maine	4	12

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	NJIT	11	3
2	North Florida	10	4
3	Florida Gulf Coast	7	7
4	Lipscomb	7	7
5	Jacksonville	7	7
6	USC Upstate	7	7
7	Kennesaw St.	4	10
8	Stetson	3	11

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Connecticut	14	4
2	SMU	14	4
3	Cincinnati	13	5
4	Tulsa	11	7
5	Temple	10	8
6	Memphis	10	8
7	Houston	8	10
8	Tulane	5	13
9	East Carolina	5	13
10	UCF	5	13
11	South Florida	4	14

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Maryland	14	4
2	Indiana	12	6
3	Michigan St.	12	6
4	Purdue	11	7
5	Michigan	11	7
6	Ohio St.	11	7
7	Wisconsin	11	7
8	Illinois	9	9
9	Iowa	9	9
10	Northwestern	7	11
11	Nebraska	7	11
12	Penn St.	6	12
13	Minnesota	5	13
14	Rutgers	1	17

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Kansas	13	5
2	Iowa St.	12	6
3	Oklahoma	12	6
4	Texas	11	7
5	West Virginia	10	8
6	Baylor	9	9
7	Oklahoma St.	8	10
8	Texas Tech	5	13
9	TCU	5	13
10	Kansas St.	5	13

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Villanova	14	4
2	Georgetown	12	6
3	Xavier	12	6
4	Butler	11	7
5	Marquette	10	8
6	Providence	8	10
7	Seton Hall	8	10
8	Creighton	7	11
9	DePaul	5	13
10	St. John's	3	15

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Montana	13	5
2	Weber St.	12	6
3	Eastern Washington	11	7
4	Portland St.	10	8
5	Northern Arizona	9	9
6	Sacramento St.	9	9
7	Idaho	9	9
8	Southern Utah	9	9
9	Montana St.	8	10
10	Northern Colorado	7	11
11	Idaho St.	6	12
12	North Dakota	5	13

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	High Point	15	3
2	Coastal Carolina	13	5
3	Winthrop	13	5
4	Radford	9	9
5	UNC Asheville	9	9
6	Longwood	8	10
7	Gardner Webb	8	10
8	Charleston Southern	7	11
9	Campbell	7	11
10	Presbyterian	6	12
11	Liberty	4	14

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	UC Irvine	11	5
2	Hawaii	11	5
3	Long Beach St.	10	6
4	Cal Poly	10	6
5	UC Santa Barbara	9	7
6	UC Riverside	7	9
7	Cal St. Fullerton	6	10
8	UC Davis	6	10
9	Cal St. Northridge	2	14

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Hofstra	12	6
2	James Madison	11	7
3	UNC Wilmington	11	7
4	Northeastern	11	7
5	William & Mary	10	8
6	Delaware	8	10
7	College of Charleston	7	11
8	Elon	7	11
9	Towson	7	11
10	Drexel	6	12

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	UAB	14	4
2	Old Dominion	14	4
3	Middle Tennessee	12	6
4	UTEP	12	6
5	Western Kentucky	11	7
6	Louisiana Tech	11	7
7	Rice	8	10
8	Charlotte	8	10
9	Marshall	7	11
10	FIU	7	11
11	North Texas	6	12
12	Florida Atlantic	6	12
13	Southern Miss	5	13
14	UTSA	5	13

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Valparaiso	15	3
2	Oakland	11	7
3	Detroit	10	8
4	Green Bay	10	8
5	Milwaukee	10	8
6	Wright St.	9	9
7	Cleveland St.	8	10
8	Northern Kentucky	7	11
9	Illinois Chicago	5	13
10	Youngstown St.	5	13

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Princeton	9	5
2	Columbia	9	5
3	Harvard	9	5
4	Yale	8	6
5	Dartmouth	7	7
6	Penn	6	8
7	Brown	5	9
8	Cornell	3	11

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Iona	16	4
2	Canisius	13	7
3	Rider	13	7
4	Monmouth	11	9
5	Manhattan	11	9
6	Siena	11	9
7	Fairfield	10	10
8	Quinnipiac	9	11
9	Saint Peter's	6	14
10	Niagara	6	14
11	Marist	4	16

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Central Michigan	14	4
2	Akron	13	5
3	Western Michigan	11	7
4	Kent St.	10	8
5	Miami OH	9	9
6	Buffalo	9	9
7	Eastern Michigan	8	10
8	Ball St.	8	10
9	Toledo	8	10
10	Ohio	7	11
11	Northern Illinois	6	12
12	Bowling Green	5	13

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	NC Central	14	2
2	Hampton	12	4
3	Norfolk St.	10	6
4	Howard	10	6
5	MD Eastern Shore	9	7
6	North Carolina A&T	8	8
7	Morgan St.	8	8
8	Bethune Cookman	8	8
9	South Carolina St.	7	9
10	Delaware St.	6	10
11	Savannah St.	6	10
12	Coppin St.	4	12
13	Florida A&M	2	14

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Wichita St.	16	2
2	Evansville	12	6
3	Illinois St.	11	7
4	Northern Iowa	11	7
5	Loyola Chicago	9	9
6	Indiana St.	9	9
7	Southern Illinois	8	10
8	Missouri St.	7	11
9	Drake	4	14
10	Bradley	3	15

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	San Diego St.	15	3
2	Boise St.	13	5
3	UNLV	13	5
4	New Mexico	11	7
5	Colorado St.	10	8
6	Fresno St.	9	9
7	Utah St.	9	9
8	Wyoming	7	11
9	Nevada	6	12
10	Air Force	5	13
11	San Jose St.	1	17

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Mount St. Mary's	13	5
2	St. Francis NY	11	7
3	Sacred Heart	10	8
4	LIU Brooklyn	10	8
5	Robert Morris	10	8
6	Wagner	9	9
7	Bryant	9	9
8	St. Francis PA	8	10
9	Fairleigh Dickinson	5	13
10	Central Connecticut	5	13

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Belmont	13	3
2	Tennessee Martin	11	5
3	Murray St.	11	5
4	Morehead St.	10	6
5	Eastern Kentucky	9	7
6	Eastern Illinois	7	9
7	SE Missouri St.	7	9
8	Tennessee St.	7	9
9	Austin Peay	6	10
10	Tennessee Tech	6	10
11	Jacksonville St.	5	11
12	SIU Edwardsville	4	12

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Arizona	13	5
2	California	13	5
3	Utah	12	6
4	Oregon	11	7
5	UCLA	10	8
6	Oregon St.	9	9
7	Arizona St.	8	10
8	Colorado	8	10
9	Stanford	7	11
10	USC	7	11
11	Washington	5	13
12	Washington St.	5	13

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Boston University	12	6
2	Lehigh	12	6
3	Bucknell	11	7
4	Army	11	7
5	American	10	8
6	Navy	8	10
7	Holy Cross	8	10
8	Lafayette	7	11
9	Loyola MD	7	11
10	Colgate	4	14

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Louisiana Lafayette	16	4
2	Georgia St.	14	6
3	Louisiana Monroe	12	8
4	Arkansas Little Rock	11	9
5	Texas St.	10	10
6	UT Arlington	10	10
7	Arkansas St.	10	10
8	Appalachian St.	8	12
9	Georgia Southern	7	13
10	South Alabama	7	13
11	Troy	5	15

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Wofford	13	5
2	Chattanooga	13	5
3	East Tennessee St.	12	6
4	Mercer	11	7
5	Western Carolina	9	9
6	UNC Greensboro	8	10
7	Furman	8	10
8	VMI	8	10
9	Samford	5	13
10	The Citadel	3	15

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Kentucky	14	4
2	Texas A&M	12	6
3	LSU	12	6
4	Vanderbilt	11	7
5	Florida	10	8
6	South Carolina	10	8
7	Georgia	9	9
8	Mississippi St.	8	10
9	Auburn	8	10
10	Mississippi	8	10
11	Arkansas	7	11
12	Tennessee	6	12
13	Alabama	6	12
14	Missouri	5	13

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Texas Southern	15	3
2	Southern	14	4
3	Alabama St.	11	7
4	Jackson St.	11	7
5	Alabama A&M	9	9
6	Arkansas Pine Bluff	9	9
7	Prairie View A&M	8	10
8	Mississippi Valley St.	6	12
9	Alcorn St.	6	12
10	Grambling St.	1	17

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Stephen F. Austin	16	2
2	Northwestern St.	12	6
3	Sam Houston St.	12	6
4	Texas A&M CC	10	8
5	Incarnate Word	10	8
6	Lamar	9	9
7	SE Louisiana	9	9
8	Houston Baptist	8	10
9	Nicholls St.	8	10
10	New Orleans	8	10
11	Abilene Christian	5	13
12	McNeese St.	5	13
13	Central Arkansas	5	13

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	South Dakota St.	12	4
2	North Dakota St.	11	5
3	Oral Roberts	8	8
4	Nebraska Omaha	8	8
5	IUPUI	8	8
6	South Dakota	8	8
7	IPFW	7	9
8	Denver	6	10
9	Western Illinois	4	12

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	New Mexico St.	11	3
2	Cal St. Bakersfield	10	4
3	Grand Canyon	8	6
4	UMKC	8	6
5	Seattle	6	8
6	Utah Valley	5	9
7	Chicago St.	5	9
8	Texas RGV	3	11

conference rank	team	projected wins	projected losses
1	Gonzaga	16	2
2	BYU	13	5
3	Pepperdine	11	7
4	Saint Mary's	10	8
5	San Diego	8	10
6	Santa Clara	8	10
7	Pacific	8	10
8	Portland	7	11
9	San Francisco	5	13
10	Loyola Marymount	4	14