Midseason Bowl Projections: Predicting the playoff, every bowl game

Boise State and Stanford enter the mix for the New Year's Six bowls while the projected College Football Playoff field remains the same at midseason.

The first half of the season has been marked by a surprising sense of stability. The four teams in the projected field for the College Football Playoff entered 2016 ranked No. 1 (Alabama), No. 2 (Clemson), No. 6 (Ohio State) and No. 14 (Washington). The Crimson Tide and Tigers even participated in last year’s championship game.

For fans of postseason chaos, all this steadiness has been a little unsettling. Good thing there’s still another half of the regular season to play, plenty of time for some wild upsets to wreak havoc on the bowl picture.

Before we get to the bowl projections, a reminder about how the college football postseason works. The playoff selection committee will choose the teams for the two playoff semifinals—the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl this year—and the four other marquee bowls that are part of the New Year’s Six. The highest ranked Group of Five conference champion must play in one of those six games, and other games, such as the Rose Bowl, have conference tie-ins.

The remaining bowl games are also governed by agreements with the 10 FBS conferences, though if a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its tie-ins, that bowl can select another conference’s representative. In some cases, leagues will pool together their bowl tie-ins to create more flexibility. The Music City Bowl, for example, can choose either an ACC or Big Ten team to face an SEC opponent.

And lastly, just because a bowl may be designated to have a particular order of selection among a conference’s teams doesn’t mean it has to adhere exactly to the standings. The Alamo Bowl’s second choice among Pac-12 teams, for example, does not require it to choose the No. 2 available team from the Pac-12 standings or from the playoff committee’s rankings. Other factors, such as location, the matchup, the size of a school’s fan base and the willingness of that fan base to travel, can influence bowls’ decisions.

Alabama, Texas A&M set up for marquee clash after Midseason Power Rankings

New Year's Six bowls

Bowl	Date	Location	Matchup	Pick
Peach (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Atlanta	TBD vs. TBD	Alabama vs. Washington
Fiesta (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Glendale, Ariz.	TBD vs. TBD	Ohio State vs. Clemson
Orange	Dec. 30	Miami	ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND	Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Cotton	Jan. 2	Arlington, Texas	TBD vs. TBD	Boise State vs. Tennessee
Rose	Jan. 2	Pasadena, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Michigan vs. Stanford
Sugar	Jan. 2	New Orleans	SEC vs. Big 12	Texas A&M vs. Baylor

As expansion charade finally ends, where does Big 12 go from here?

bowl	date	location	matchup	pick
New Mexico	Dec. 17	Albuquerque, N.M,	C-USA vs. MW	Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico
Las Vegas	Dec. 17	Las Vegas	MW vs. Pac-12	San Diego State vs. Arizona State
Camellia	Dec. 17	Montgomery, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Cure	Dec. 17	Orlando, Fla.	AAC vs. Sun Belt	Tulane vs. South Alabama
New Orleans	Dec. 17	New Orleans	Sun Belt vs. C-USA	Appalachian State vs. Southern Miss
Miami Beach	Dec. 19	Miami	AAC vs. MAC	Temple vs. Central Michigan
Boca Raton	Dec. 20	Boca Raton, Fla.	AAC vs. C-USA	Memphis vs. Middle Tennessee
Poinsettia	Dec. 21	San Diego	BYU vs. MW	BYU vs. Air Force
Famous Idaho Potato	Dec. 22	Boise, Idaho	MAC vs. MW	Toledo vs. Wyoming
Bahamas	Dec. 23	Nassau, Bahamas	AAC vs. MAC	UConn vs. Ohio
Armed Forces	Dec. 23	Fort Worth, Texas	Big 12 vs. Navy	Kansas State vs. Navy
Dollar General	Dec. 23	Mobile, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Western Michigan vs. Troy
Hawaii	Dec. 24	Honolulu	C-USA vs. MW	Old Dominion vs. Akron*
St. Petersburg	Dec. 26	St. Petersburg, Fla.	ACC vs. AAC	Wake Forest vs. South Florida
Quick Lane	Dec. 26	Detroit	ACC vs. Big Ten	Georgia Tech vs. Maryland
Independence	Dec. 26	Shreveport, La.	ACC vs. SEC	NC State vs. Arkansas State*
Heart of Dallas	Dec. 27	Dallas	Big Ten vs. C-USA	Cincinnati* vs. Western Kentucky
Military	Dec. 27	Annapolis, Md.	ACC vs. AAC	Army* vs. Houston
Holiday	Dec. 27	San Diego	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Indiana vs. Washington State
Cactus	Dec. 27	Phoenix	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	Texas vs. UCLA
Pinstripe	Dec. 28	New York	ACC vs. Big Ten	Miami vs. Northwestern
Russell Athletic	Dec. 28	Orlando, Fla.	ACC vs. Big 12	Florida State vs. West Virginia
Foster Farms	Dec. 28	Santa Clara, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Minnesota vs. Utah
Texas	Dec. 28	Houston	Big 12 vs. SEC	TCU vs. LSU
Birmingham	Dec. 29	Birmingham, Ala.	AAC vs. SEC	Tulsa vs. Ball State*
Belk	Dec. 29	Charlotte, N.C.	ACC vs. SEC	North Carolina vs. Auburn
Alamo	Dec. 29	San Antonio	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	Oklahoma vs. Colorado
Arizona	Dec. 30	Tucson, Ariz.	MW vs. Sun Belt	UTSA* vs. Idaho
Liberty	Dec. 30	Memphis, Tenn.	Big 12 vs. SEC	Oklahoma State vs. Georgia
Sun	Dec. 30	El Paso, Texas	ACC vs. Pac-12	Pittsburgh vs. USC
Music City	Dec. 30	Nashville, Tenn.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Penn State vs. Kentucky
TaxSlayer	Dec. 31	Jacksonville, Fla.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Virginia Tech vs. Ole Miss
Citrus	Dec. 31	Orlando, Fla.	Big Ten/ACC vs. SEC	Iowa vs. Arkansas
Outback	Jan. 2	Tampa, Fla.	Big Ten vs. SEC	Nebraska vs. Florida

*Replacement team