Bowl Projections: Auburn, Penn State capitalize after Week 10

The projected College Football Playoff field remains unchanged while Auburn and Penn State capitalize on the losses of Texas A&M and Nebraska to move into the New Year's Six bowl lineup.

The postseason picture gained a lot more clarity with the debut of the College Football Playoff rankings last week. While it’s true that the first rankings aren’t all that predictive for determining who will actually make the playoff (Texas A&M can attest to that), they still offer a sense of how the hierarchy of teams might look at season’s end.

One of the biggest surprises in last week’s rankings was Penn State’s placement at No. 12. With the Nittany Lions’ manageable closing schedule of Indiana, Rutgers and Michigan State, they have a solid chance to end the regular season 10–2. The high assessment from last week suggests that such a finish would put Penn State inside the top 10 of the final rankings. That makes James Franklin’s squad the big winners in this week’s bowl projections, sliding up into the New Year’s Six bowls with a spot in the Cotton Bowl.

Before we get to the full bowl projections, a reminder about how the college football postseason works. The playoff selection committee will choose the teams for the two playoff semifinals—the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl this year—and the four other marquee bowls that are part of the New Year’s Six.  The highest ranked Group of Five conference champion must play in one of those six games, and other games, such as the Rose Bowl, have conference tie-ins.

The remaining bowl games are also governed by agreements with the 10 FBS conferences, though if a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its tie-ins, that bowl can select another conference’s representative. In some cases, leagues will pool together their bowl tie-ins to create more flexibility. The Music City Bowl, for example, can choose either an ACC or Big Ten team to face an SEC opponent.

And lastly, just because a bowl may be designated to have a particular order of selection among a conference’s teams doesn’t mean it has to adhere exactly to the standings. The Alamo Bowl’s second choice among Pac-12 teams, for example, does not require it to choose the No. 2 available team from the Pac-12 standings or from the playoff committee’s rankings. Other factors, such as location, the matchup, the size of a school’s fan base and the willingness of that fan base to travel, can influence bowls’ decisions.

• The one thing all College Football Playoff contenders must have

New Year's Six bowls

Bowl	Date	Location	Matchup	Pick
Peach (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Atlanta	TBD vs. TBD	Alabama vs. Washington
Fiesta (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Glendale, Ariz.	TBD vs. TBD	Michigan vs. Clemson
Orange	Dec. 30	Miami	ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND	Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Cotton	Jan. 2	Arlington, Texas	TBD vs. TBD	Western Michigan vs. Penn State
Rose	Jan. 2	Pasadena, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Ohio State vs. Colorado
Sugar	Jan. 2	New Orleans	SEC vs. Big 12	Auburn vs. Oklahoma

Ohio State moves into the top five of Power Rankings after Week 10

bowl	date	location	matchup	pick
New Mexico	Dec. 17	Albuquerque, N.M.	C-USA vs. MW	Old Dominion vs. New Mexico
Las Vegas	Dec. 17	Las Vegas	MW vs. Pac-12	Boise State vs. Arizona State
Camellia	Dec. 17	Montgomery, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Eastern Michigan vs. Idaho
Cure	Dec. 17	Orlando, Fla.	AAC vs. Sun Belt	UCF vs. Arkansas State
New Orleans	Dec. 17	New Orleans	Sun Belt vs. C-USA	Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky
Miami Beach	Dec. 19	Miami	AAC vs. MAC	Tulsa vs. Central Michigan
Boca Raton	Dec. 20	Boca Raton, Fla.	AAC vs. C-USA	Memphis vs. Louisiana Tech
Poinsettia	Dec. 21	San Diego	BYU vs. MW	BYU vs. San Diego State
Famous Idaho Potato	Dec. 22	Boise, Idaho	MAC vs. MW	Ohio vs. Wyoming
Bahamas	Dec. 23	Nassau, Bahamas	AAC vs. MAC	SMU vs. Akron
Armed Forces	Dec. 23	Fort Worth, Texas	Big 12 vs. Navy	Kansas State vs. Navy
Dollar General	Dec. 23	Mobile, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Toledo vs. Troy
Hawaii	Dec. 24	Honolulu	C-USA vs. MW	UTSA vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg	Dec. 26	St. Petersburg, Fla.	ACC vs. AAC	Georgia Tech vs. South Florida
Quick Lane	Dec. 26	Detroit	ACC vs. Big Ten	NC State vs. Southern Miss*
Independence	Dec. 26	Shreveport, La.	ACC vs. SEC	Wake Forest vs. Kentucky
Heart of Dallas	Dec. 27	Dallas	Big Ten vs. C-USA	Miami (OH)* vs. Middle Tennessee
Military	Dec. 27	Annapolis, Md.	ACC vs. AAC	Army* vs. Temple
Holiday	Dec. 27	San Diego	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Northwestern vs. Washington State
Cactus	Dec. 27	Phoenix	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	TCU vs. Cal
Pinstripe	Dec. 28	New York	ACC vs. Big Ten	Miami vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic	Dec. 28	Orlando, Fla.	ACC vs. Big 12	Florida State vs. Oklahoma State
Foster Farms	Dec. 28	Santa Clara, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Indiana vs. USC
Texas	Dec. 28	Houston	Big 12 vs. SEC	Baylor vs. Ole Miss
Birmingham	Dec. 29	Birmingham, Ala.	AAC vs. SEC	Houston vs. South Carolina
Belk	Dec. 29	Charlotte, N.C.	ACC vs. SEC	North Carolina vs. Tennessee
Alamo	Dec. 29	San Antonio	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	West Virginia vs. Utah
Arizona	Dec. 30	Tucson, Ariz.	MW vs. Sun Belt	Colorado State vs. South Alabama
Liberty	Dec. 30	Memphis, Tenn.	Big 12 vs. SEC	Texas vs. Georgia
Sun	Dec. 30	El Paso, Texas	ACC vs. Pac-12	Pittsburgh vs. Stanford
Music City	Dec. 30	Nashville, Tenn.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Iowa vs. Arkansas
TaxSlayer	Dec. 31	Jacksonville, Fla.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Virginia Tech vs. Florida
Citrus	Dec. 31	Orlando, Fla.	Big Ten/ACC vs. SEC	Nebraska vs. Texas A&M
Outback	Jan. 2	Tampa, Fla.	Big Ten vs. SEC	Minnesota vs. LSU

*Replacement team