Forde-Yard Dash: The Statistical Signs of Highly Effective Teams

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (lifeboats sold separately in Lawrence):

MORE DASH: Texas Flop | Prove-It Saturday | Looking at New Coaches

FOURTH QUARTER: THE STATISTICAL SIGNS OF HIGHLY EFFECTIVE TEAMS

Notre Dame (31) is a plus 30% in third-down conversions. The Fighting Irish are converting an even 50% of their third downs (15 out of 30) while opponents are only converting 20% (six out of 30). The latter number is second-lowest in the nation, trailing only Oklahoma State (16.3%). The lowest season-ending third-down defense in the last decade was 2016 Michigan (21.02%), while the highest season-ending third-down defense in the last decade was 2014 Georgia Tech at 57.89%.

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Kansas State (32) is the only team to have played three games without committing a turnover. The Wildcats have run 184 offensive plays and returned 16 kicks without giving the ball away—that’s zero turnovers in 200 touches so far. Last year’s low for the season was Oregon State, which only turned the ball over once every 146 touches. Start the credit with quarterback Skylar Thompson, who has run or passed the ball 81 times thus far without a turnover. (And credit second-year coach Chris Klieman, whose 2–0 record against Oklahoma earned him a contract extension through 2026 that was announced Monday.)

For the first time in school history, BYU (33) has scored 45 or more points in each of its first three games. And that’s some serious school history. Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young didn’t do that. Heisman Trophy–winning quarterback Ty Detmer didn’t do that. National champion QB Robbie Bosco didn’t do that. Jim McMahon, Gifford Nielsen, Marc Wilson, Gary Sheide and Steve Sarkisian didn’t do that. But Zach Wilson (84.5% completion rate) has done it. Wilson and his Cougars teammates are fun to watch.

SMU (34) has played four games and never trailed this season. Advanced stats say that failing to ever be behind dramatically increases the likelihood of winning. The Mustangs also lead the nation in explosive plays from scrimmage: 77 gains of 10 yards or more; 26 of 20 yards or more; 13 of 30 yards or more; eight of 40 or more; six of 50 or more. At this point the only thing that might slow down the Pony Express is its student section (35), which was ejected en masse at halftime against Memphis Saturday for blowing off masking and social distancing guidelines.

STAT OF THE WEEK

In week two, Kentucky (36) ran for 408 yards and lost a league game. In week one, Mississippi State (37) ran for nine yards and won a league game. In a ballyhooed “line of scrimmage league,” those numbers threaten everything an old-school SEC fan believes in.

But this is not your father’s SEC, or even Nick Saban’s SEC of 2012. This is a passing league now, and has been trending that way for a couple of years. Lane Kiffin was Saban’s passing gateway drug, and then Tua Tagovailoa got him hooked on the hard stuff. Joe Brady and Joe Burrow led Ed Orgeron there. Now Mike Leach and Dan Mullen and Kiffin are head coaches in the league and this looks like the SEC that Steve Spurrier and Hal Mumme envisioned in the 1990s.

The SEC currently has three of the top five teams nationally in passing offense (Mississippi State, Mississippi and Alabama). And four of the top seven (Florida). And five of the top nine (LSU). Last year the SEC ended the season with two in the top 10 (LSU and Alabama), and the same number in 2018 (Ole Miss and ‘Bama). From 2014–17, there was just one SEC team that cracked the passing offense top 10 (Ole Miss was 10th in 2015).

Meanwhile, the league has just one one team in the top 20 in rushing offense, and that’s winless Kentucky.

COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR THIS WEEK

Troy Calhoun (38), Air Force. The Falcons are arguably the team most decimated in America by the pandemic. Dozens of cadets took a “turnback” year at the Academy, which will essentially be a redshirt year. Between those players and graduation losses, Air Force played its first game of the fall Saturday against Navy with 11 new starters on defense—and completely dominated the Midshipmen. The Falcons won 40–7, with a converted offensive lineman racking up seven tackles on the defensive front and a true freshman linebacker making another seven. Air Force also lost last year’s quarterback, Donald Hammond, and still racked up 40 points. Amazing job by Calhoun getting a patchwork team ready to blow out a rival.

COACH WHO SHOULD TAKE THE BUS TO WORK

Mark Stoops (39), Kentucky. A team expected by many to make a move in the SEC is 0–2, losing by 16 to Auburn and then by a point in overtime as a favorite against Mississippi. (The Tigers and Rebels are 0–2 against teams other than Kentucky.) But the two most glaring moments of the Wildcats’ loss to Ole Miss showed that accountability isn’t the program’s strong suit at the moment.

The first: Running back A.J. Rose slipped into celebration cruise mode closing in on the goal line for a long touchdown run and allowed himself to be caught from behind. “That’s not acceptable,” said Stoops, who actually did accept it by leaving Rose in the game to fumble at the goal line two plays later when he tried to reach the ball across. Stoops has done great work in a tough job, but he has in fact accepted a fair amount of silly behavior, cheap shots and other stuff from his players in the last few years.

The second: when the game ended, Stoops’s first move was to chase the officials off the field before doubling back to shake Lane Kiffin’s hand. "I just wanted to talk to one of them about a specific play," Stoops said afterward. Going after the refs is a bad look—but then again, so if having your running back throttling down and being caught short of the end zone.

POINT AFTER

The Dash didn’t go anywhere over the weekend, but The Dash also didn’t go thirsty. Top selection from the weekend: Sierra Nevada Hop Bullet (40), a double IPA that goes down nicely sitting around a fire pit on a crisp fall night. Try one and thank The Dash later.

MORE DASH: Texas Flop | Prove-It Saturday | Looking at New Coaches