Forde-Yard Dash: November Is Set to Kick Off With a Bang

Breaking down the key college football games of the weekend, including Florida vs Georgia, The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (pirate wear now on sale at drastically reduced prices in Starkville):

MORE DASH: Fourth Playoff Spot | Harbaugh or Orgeron? | Pac Is Back

SECOND QUARTER: THE GAMES ARE BIGGER IN NOVEMBER

We have flipped the calendar, and there is a lot at stake this month—not just with the Electoral College, but with college football. While the regular season will linger longer—all the way into mid-December—this is moving month. Your team has to get itself in position to still be in the hunt for playoff bids, conference championships, winning seasons, bowl games, etc.

This week there are three huge games, plus a few others of intrigue that merit watching closely. The Dash breaks them down.

Florida-Georgia. When: Saturday at 3:30 ET. Where: Jacksonville. Line: Georgia by 4 1/2. History: Georgia leads the series 52-43-2 and has won the last three.

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party comes with two central questions: Is Gators coach Dan Mullen (11) losing his mind; and are the Bulldogs really in ride-or-die mode with Stetson Bennett (12)?

Mullen spent most of October behaving like someone who is going COVID-19 wild. He said bizarre things: “Pack the Swamp” during the pandemic; and “It’s actually unfortunate to me the NCAA did this” about giving athletes Election Day off from practice. (He went so far as to declare the off day “very dangerous because you’re out for the health of the kids, the buildup of the game.”) Then he did bizarre things Saturday: charging across the field at halftime of the game against Missouri to escalate a situation that turned into a full-scale brawl between the two teams; then walking off after the brawl throwing his arms in the air to incite the crowd, WWE-style; then appearing for his postgame press conference wearing a Darth Vader outfit.

“It’s a really unfortunate situation,” Mullen said of the brawl while adjusting his Vader helmet, a look that was at odds with the tone he was trying to take. “It’s not something we condone, obviously. It’s not something you want to see in the game at all.”

The Southeastern Conference office agreed that the brawl was not something it wanted to see, nor did it appreciate Mullen’s role in escalating the melee. He was fined $25,000 and reprimanded by the league office, and two Gator defensive players (including starting lineman Zach Carter) will miss the first half Saturday after being ejected.

From a Georgia perspective, Kirby Smart appears willing to try to win what verges on a playoff and SEC East elimination game with Bennett at quarterback. He came into the season expected to be fourth on the depth chart, behind transfers Jamie Newman and JT Daniels and freshman D’Wan Mathis. Then Newman opted out, Daniels was not cleared to play by season’s start, and Mathis struggled as the first-game starter. That turned over the reins to Bennett, who was good enough for 3 1/2 games. Since then it’s been ugly.

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Bennett’s numbers since Nick Saban put some halftime adjustments on him in Tuscaloosa: 15 of 33 for 235 yards, with zero touchdowns and four interceptions. That’s an efficiency rating of 81.03, which is brutal. For the season Bennett’s efficiency rating is 134.72, which ranks in the lower half of FBS.

Bennett may enjoy the sight of Florida’s middling pass defense, but there is no doubt that the Bulldogs are at a disadvantage at quarterback in this game. And Kyle Trask may have some opportunities to exploit a normally excellent Georgia secondary that reportedly will be missing safety Richard LeCounte, and perhaps others.

The fact that Daniels, a USC transfer who had a good freshman season for the Trojans, cannot get on the field creates its own set of questions. He had a season-ending knee injury in September 2019; has he not recovered sufficiently? Watching Georgia flail to a 14–3 win at Kentucky, it seemed like the perfect time to get Daniels some knock-off-the-rust playing time in order to rejuvenate the offense and prepare for Florida—if Smart had any intention of using Daniels against the Gators. That didn’t happen.

Dash pick: Florida 24, Georgia 23.

Clemson-Notre Dame. When: 7:30 p.m. Saturday. Where: South Bend. Line: Clemson by 6 1/2. History: Clemson leads the series 3–1 and has won the last three, most recently a 30–3 manhandling in the 2018 CFP.

Tigers freshman quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei (13) was ready for his shot last Saturday against Boston College—now it gets harder. Still, the fact that Las Vegas favors Clemson by nearly a touchdown without Trevor Lawrence tells you that the sharps believe there is a sizable gap between the two teams.

What does Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly think about how his team matches up with the elite programs in the sport?

“We’re 29–3 in our last 32 games,” he said at his Monday press conference. “We’ve won 12 in a row. You guys decide.”

That isn’t 100% accurate of late—the Tigers need to tighten up some uncharacteristic sloppiness in recent weeks. In the past four games they have had four kicks blocked, missed an extra point and a 37-yard field goal and surrendered fumble and interception returns for touchdowns. Clemson had six games without a turnover last year, five in 2018 and four in 2017; so far this season it has had only one. This Notre Dame defense hasn’t forced many turnovers to date (seven in six games), but defensive coordinator Clark Lea (14) will undoubtedly have some plans for luring Uiagalelei into a few mistakes.

“The most important thing is to make sure he’s not comfortable back there,” Kelly said. “So for us defensively, get him out of a comfort zone, don’t let him get in a rhythm, don’t give him the easy throws.”

Mostly what the Fighting Irish do defensively revolves around limiting big plays and scoring plays. They have allowed just five touchdowns in opponents’ 11 red zone trips, lead the ACC in third-down conversion defense (24.4%), and have allowed the fewest plays from scrimmage of 20 yards or longer (20) in the league. Notre Dame has given up just one offensive touchdown of longer than 10 yards.

Dash pick: Clemson 23, Notre Dame 16.

BYU-Boise State. When: Friday at 9:45 p.m. Where: Boise. Line: BYU by three. History: Boise State leads the series 7–3 but BYU won last year in Provo, 28–25.

This is the biggest non-Power 5 game of the season, matching two undefeated teams that have steamrolled their opponents thus far. BYU’s average margin of victory: 31 points. Boise’s average margin of victory: 24 points.

The quarterback matchup should be enticing but also a bit mysterious. The Cougars’ Zach Wilson (15) is having a season worthy of Heisman Trophy consideration, ranking fourth nationally in pass efficiency (198.69) and third in total offense yards per play (9.84) among QBs who have played more than one game. For Boise? Hank Bachmeier started the opener and was great against Utah State (20–28 for 268 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions), but then he missed the Air Force game, and backup Jack Sears (16) was even better (17–20 for 280 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions).

Boise hasn’t given up much information yet about why Bachmeier didn’t play, or what his availability will be this week. Either way, this could be a fun shootout.

Dash pick: BYU 35, Boise State 31.

But that isn’t the only Mountain West–involved Friday night game of interesting. Don’t overlook San Jose State at San Diego State (17), which is in Carson, Calif., where the Aztecs are playing their home games this year. This is an unlikely matchup of 2–0 teams, since the Spartans haven’t been 2–0 since 1987. The Aztecs lead the MWC by wide margins in scoring defense and total defense.

Three other consequential games to monitor:

Purdue at Wisconsin, maybe (18). The status of this game depends on the status of the Badgers’ COVID-19 test results, and last week they didn’t look promising. If they do play, Wisconsin is expected to start fourth-string quarterback Danny Vanden Boom. Don’t expect Purdue to feel too sorry for the Badgers, after injuries forced the Boilermakers to start three different QBs last season.

Dash pick: Purdue 20, Wisconsin 17*

(*The safer bet is that this game will be canceled.)

Michigan-Indiana (19). The Wolverines are trying to salvage a season that veered off the rails in the second game. The Hoosiers (2–0) are trying to build a special season, as noted in the Dash First Quarter. Michigan hasn’t lost to Indiana since 1987. Is this the year that changes?

Dash pick: Indiana 28, Michigan 26.

Arizona State-USC (20). The Pac-12 finally kicks off, and The Dash will have more on that conference in a later quarter this week. But the highlight game of the opening Saturday is an eye-opening 9 a.m. local start between what could be the top two teams in the South Division. The quarterback battle is a good one: Jayden Daniels of the Sun Devils against Kedon Slovis of the Trojans.

Dash pick: USC 33, Arizona State 24.

MORE DASH: Fourth Playoff Spot | Harbaugh or Orgeron? | Pac Is Back