Big 12 Basketball Preview: Will Baylor Stay Atop a Crowded Conference?

The Bears are the clear preseason league favorites, but West Virginia and Kansas, among others, are expected to push them.

As part of Sports Illustrated's preview of the 2020–21 men's college basketball season, we're breaking down each of the six major conferences. Starting with the Big 12, the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC will follow. All will be complete with our analyst's breakdown of each team and a projected order of finish.

The Big Picture

The Big 12 had a legitimate shot at multiple Final Four teams before March Madness was canceled, and the same is true as we look forward to 2020–21. Baylor is likely the conference favorite and a leading Final Four contender, while Kansas and West Virginia could join the emerging power in Waco. And it’s not just the headliners that should make for a competitive Big 12 in 2020–21.

This year could mark one of the deepest versions of the Big 12 in recent memory. Both Texas and Texas Tech have a fair shot at the conference crown, and it’s not impossible for eight teams to reach the NCAA tournament. If the season can actually be held amid the COVID-19 crisis, a fascinating four-month sprint to March Madness awaits.

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Conference Player of the Year: Jared Butler

Baylor’s leading man could have a relatively clear path to the award this year after Kansas lost both Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike in the offseason. Butler is a true floor general for the Bears, thriving in the pick-and-roll with a deep array of tricks both off the dribble and at the rim. Perhaps Butler isn’t the most exciting player in college basketball, but he’s an efficient scorer, quality playmaker and leader of the likely Big 12 champion. If the Bears can replicate their 2019–20 success, this award is Butler’s to lose.

Newcomer of the Year: Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State

Texas forward Greg Brown could compete for the award if he’s given enough responsibility in the Longhorns’ offense—ditto for Kansas guard Bryce Thompson—but it’s hard to give this honor to anyone but Cunningham. The nation’s top recruit is likely to be an early lottery selection in the 2021 NBA draft, and he should quickly be given the keys to Mike Boynton’s offense. Cunningham is an oversized point guard with a smooth shooting stroke. He’s as polished as any freshman guard in recent memory. Even if the Cowboys struggle, Cunningham’s excellence should propel him to the postseason honor.

Darkhorse Team: Texas Tech

Texas is a bit intriguing as a dark horse team, but I’ll withhold any endorsement until Shaka Smart actually wins a tournament game with the Longhorns. Instead, let’s look to Lubbock, where Chris Beard’s squad once again has a chance at the Big 12 crown. Beard will receive plenty of incoming talent via the transfer market, with Georgetown guard Mac McClung and VCU big man Marcus Santos-Silva joining a pair of top-50 recruits. If Beard and Co. can overcome the loss of Davide Moretti, the Red Raiders could challenge Baylor atop the conference.

First-Team All-Big 12

Jared Butler, Baylor
Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State
Oscar Tshiebwe, West Virginia
Marcus Garrett, Kansas
Brady Manek, Oklahoma
Sixth Man: MaCio Teague, Baylor

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Baylor

Scott Drew and Co. appeared to be a Final Four favorite before last year was cut short, and there’s little reason to expect a drop-off in 2020–21. Jared Butler remains an elite point guard and Naismith candidate, and the Bears have plenty of firepower alongside him. MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell could both average double-digit points per game in the backcourt, while Big 12 All-Defensive Team honoree Mark Vital protects the paint. This Baylor team has plenty of top-end talent and the depth to match. The Bears could very well break a seven-decade Final Four drought in 2020–21.

2. West Virginia

There are legitimate concerns about the Mountaineers’ scoring punch, but this could be the nation’s best defense in 2020–21. Forward Oscar Tshiebwe is an All-Big 12 candidate after an impressive freshman season, and he’s joined in the frontcourt by elite shot blocker Derek Culver. West Virginia won’t play the prettiest basketball in the conference. Its tournament ceiling could be severely limited, barring a breakout from sophomore Miles McBride. But we’ll worry about the Mountaineers in March at a later date. For now, consider the Mountaineers a legitimate threat for the Big 12 title

3. Kansas

There’s never a true gap year for the Jayhawks in the Bill Self era, but 2020–21 could mark a bit of a step back in Lawrence. Kansas has to replace Big 12 Player of the Year Udoka Azubuike and leading scorer Devon Dotson, and there are considerable questions about the Jayhawks’ offensive prowess. Can Marcus Garrett become more than an elite defensive force? Will either freshman Bryce Thompson or JUCO addition Tyon Grant-Foster make a significant impact? If they don’t, it’s hard to imagine Kansas competing for the Big 12 title.

4. Texas Tech

Lubbock has been home to perhaps the most interesting experiment in college basketball in recent years, and Chris Beard will look to keep the program humming along in 2020–21. Leading scorers Jahmi’us Ramsey and Davide Moretti will be replaced by a string of transfers, including former Georgetown guard Mac McClung and VCU big man Marcus Santos-Silva. Add in a pair of top-50 recruits and another cobbled-together roster could potentially yield Final Four results. Perhaps the Red Raiders start slow amid a slew of new additions. But as March arrives, few teams will want to face Beard’s squad. The Final Four is certainly in play.

5. Texas

There’s a chance the Longhorns finally find their groove in the Shaka Smart era and compete for the Big 12 title in 2020–21. Five-star freshman Greg Brown should be an electric presence in the frontcourt, and he could very well compete with Cade Cunningham for Big 12 Newcomer of the Year. Brown will be joined by 2019–20 leading scorers Matt Coleman and Andrew Jones, and forward Jericho Sims could earn a spot on the All-Big 12 team. This feels like a make-or-break year for Smart after five seasons without an NCAA tournament victory. If Texas falls short of expectations once again, Smart could be searching for a new home.

6. Oklahoma State

No team in the Big 12 boasts a wider range of potential outcomes than Oklahoma State. There’s an outside chance the Cowboys compete for the conference crown as Cunningham cements his status as the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA draft, and there remains a modicum of talent around the five-star guard. Point guard Isaac Likekele brings added offensive punch in the backcourt, and there’s optimism regarding sophomore center Kalib Boone. Will those pieces be enough to propel the Cowboys to a top-half finish in the Big 12? Expect some impressive victories in 2020–21, but a lack of consistency could sink the Cowboys in a crowded conference.

7. Oklahoma

Lon Kruger’s steady hand guided the Sooners’ to six NCAA tournament appearances in seven years before 2019–20, and he should be able to do the same this season. Senior Brady Manek should be able to hold down the frontcourt after the departure of Kristian Doolittle, and senior guard Austin Reaves adds additional scoring prowess in the backcourt. The Sooners don’t necessarily sport top-end talent like their rival in Stillwater, but they may be a better bet to continue their season into March.

8. Iowa State

Replacing Tyrese Haliburton is a monumental task for Steve Prohm’s squad, and it’s unclear whether the Cyclones have enough firepower to compete in an impressive Big 12. But this isn’t a team completely bereft of talent thanks to a number of transfers. Former Memphis guard Tyler Harris should handle significant playmaking duties in Haliburton’s place, and he’ll be joined by former Illinois and DePaul guard Jalen Coleman-Lands. A run to the Sweet 16 is out of the question for the Cyclones, but they still have an outside chance at a tournament appearance

9. TCU

Jamie Dixon’s club struggled mightily down the stretch in 2019–20 en route to a 16–16 finish, and the Horned Frogs face an uphill road as they restart play in 2020–21. Guard Desmond Bane has taken his talents to the NBA after two years on the All-Big 12 team, placing plenty of pressure on senior R.J. Nembhard to pick up the scoring slack. Junior big man Kevin Samuel provides a legitimate shot-blocking presence in the middle, but outside of he and Nembhard, this is a team lacking the talent to keep up. Consider TCU a likely also-ran in Dixon’s fifth year in Fort Worth.

10. Kansas State

Kansas State finished last in the Big 12 in 2019–20, and the Wildcats enter 2020–21 without any of their top three scorers from last season. Kansas State did add a solid recruiting class after a slew of departures, and four-star point guard Nijel Pack should emerge as a potential all-conference piece in the coming years. But as far as this season goes, a last-place finish in the Big 12 is more likely than an NCAA tournament appearance. 

More Big 12 Coverage From SI.com:

Huggins on WVU: 'This Is Best Roster We've Had Since 2010'
WVU's Opponent for Big 12/Big East Battle Revealed
Cade Cunningham Named To Cousy Award Watch List