Forde-Yard Dash: Everything Florida Lost in the Fog, and Where the Playoff Race Stands Now

What does Clemson, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Ohio State and more have to do this weekend to make the playoff?

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where Sarah Fuller got in the scoring column and made the sport better in the process:

MORE DASH: Texas, Auburn Diverge | Championship Week | Auburn's Comical Start

SECOND QUARTER: EVERYTHING FLORIDA LOST IN THE FOG

In the aftermath of a foggy Florida fiasco, The Dash takes stock of everything the Gators left behind at Florida Field in a stunning upset loss to LSU on Saturday night.

A College Football Playoff bid (11). Unless the Gators put on a display the likes of which college football has rarely seen and smash Alabama on Saturday in the SEC championship game, their path to the playoff is closed. There has never been a two-loss playoff team, and this doesn’t seem like the year to start—not when one of Florida’s defeats was as a 24-point home favorite to a 4–5 LSU team. This was, by every metric, a bad loss. So the gap between 2008 and present day grows a little longer in Gainesville.

Marco Wilson’s impulse control (12). College-aged men—athletes and nonathletes—do dumb things. They don’t think about consequences for actions. Almost all of them will screw up a time or two. Fortunately for most of us, those screw-ups aren’t on national television with a major football game hanging in the balance. Poor Marco Wilson wasn’t so lucky. Millions of people saw the junior Florida safety’s brainlock moment, and millions will remember it. The Taming of the Shrew was a Shakespearian comedy; The Throwing of the Shoe is a football tragedy.

Dan Mullen’s perspective—again (13). If you want compelling evidence that the pandemic is making some smart people lose their minds, Mullen seems like a good place to start. He’s coached well (as usual) in 2020, but he sure hasn’t comported himself well. There was the time he helped escalate a bench-clearing altercation with Missouri, then walked to the locker room throwing his arms in the air like a wrestling heel. There was postgame petulance after the loss at Texas A&M, which led to a call to “pack the Swamp” for Florida’s next home game. And there was more postgame excuse-making Saturday night, when Mullen opined that "the best thing to do would have been to play less games because you seem to get rewarded for not playing this year.” Actually, Dan, the best thing to do is to beat bad teams when you play them.

But Mullen wasn’t done there. On Sunday, he tried to rationalize Wilson’s chucking of Kole Taylor’s cleat. “He made the tackle,” Mullen said. “I mean, part of the football move, the kid’s shoe was in his hand. He kind of threw it, jumped and celebrated with his teammates. I don’t think there was any intent to taunt. … It was a huge play, possibly a game-winning play. Threw a shoe, went to celebrate with his teammates. Unfortunately, it was a penalty.”

Yes, it certainly was a penalty. And no, it certainly was not a football move. It was a live-in-infamy move.

Kyle Trask’s Heisman Trophy (14). Could the senior quarterback still win the award? Certainly. But he likely did some damage to his perceived front-runner status. (BetOnline has moved Alabama’s Mac Jones to the top of its odds board.) This was Trask’s lowest pass efficiency game of the season (151.94); his first multi-interception game of the season (two of those, plus a lost fumble, all in the first half); and his fewest touchdown passes of the season (two). And all this was against the No. 13 pass defense in the SEC, which was also missing its best cornerback in Derek Stingley Jr.

Trask’s pass efficiency rating for the season trails national leader Jones, Justin Fields of Ohio State (in half the games) and BYU’s Zach Wilson. All those QBs are in Heisman contention. But Trask can put his LSU performance out of mind quickly with a big game against the Crimson Tide in Atlanta.

PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

With Florida dismissed, a look at who remains in the mix with Selection Sunday looming:

Alabama (15). If the undefeated Crimson Tide win Saturday against Florida: They’re in the field as the No. 1 seed. If the Crimson Tide lose: They’re still in, unless it is an inconceivable catastrophe of a game. This will be Alabama’s sixth appearance in seven playoffs, missing only last year. It has won two CFP titles. Best wins to date: blowouts of Texas A&M and Georgia. Shakiest performance: at Mississippi, though the Tide still wound up winning by 15.

Notre Dame (16). If the undefeated Fighting Irish win Saturday against Clemson: They’re in the field as the No. 2 seed at worst and could be elevated to No. 1 if Alabama is upset by Florida. If the Fighting Irish lose Saturday: They’re likely still in, unless it’s a blowout defeat and other contenders have great performances. Best wins to date: over Clemson in double overtime, and at North Carolina by 14. Shakiest performance: a 12–7 home win over 4–7 Louisville.

Clemson (17). If the one-loss Tigers win Saturday against Notre Dame: They’re in the field, likely as a No. 2 seed, with potential to be No. 1 if Alabama loses to Florida. If the Tigers lose: They’re probably out, although there are some scenarios in which they'll still make it as a No. 4 seed. Namely, if either Ohio State loses to Northwestern or Texas A&M loses to Tennessee—but that could also bring undefeated Cincinnati, undefeated USC or one-loss Indiana into play. Best wins to date: a blowout of Miami, and, uh … Shakiest performance: falling behind Boston College by 18 points at home was more alarming than losing at Notre Dame.

Ohio State (18). If the undefeated Buckeyes win Saturday against Northwestern: They’re almost certainly in the field, although if it’s a struggle then the issue of playing only six games looms larger as a potential disqualifier. They could well be moved up to a No. 3 seed if Clemson loses to Notre Dame—or even if Clemson wins and the committee would like to avoid a third Irish-Tigers game. (The ACC loser would presumptively be No. 4 in that scenario.) If the Buckeyes lose: They’re out, plain and simple. A loss could elevate one-loss Northwestern into fringe contention, but it would be hard for the committee to get past the Wildcats’ defeat at the hands of a 2–5 Michigan State team. Best wins to date: over Indiana. That’s it. Shakiest performance: Also against Indiana, when Ohio State was briefly in danger of blowing a 35–7 lead.

Texas A&M (19). If the one-loss Aggies win Saturday against Tennessee: They’ll likely still need help. Perhaps a brilliant showing against the Volunteers coupled with an ugly Ohio State win would open a door, but more likely A&M needs a Northwestern upset. Or for Notre Dame to beat Clemson a second time, the more emphatically the better. If Texas A&M gets in at No. 4, the committee could be dealing with a potential rematch game against top seed Alabama. (Or two rematches, if Clemson-Notre Dame is the other semifinal.) If the Aggies lose: They’re out. Best wins to date: over Florida and at Auburn. Shakiest peformance: season-opening struggle against still-winless Vanderbilt.

Cincinnati (20). If the undefeated Bearcats win Saturday against Tulsa: It probably won’t matter. But dare to dream and hope for chaos. Eighth-ranked Cincinnati would need multiple upset losses, likely from Texas A&M and Ohio State, plus a powerful performance of its own to jump over Iowa State (nonsensically at No. 7). If the Bearcats lose: They'll not only miss the playoff, they may miss out on a New Year's Six bowl bid as well. Best wins to date: Army, at SMU and at UCF. Shakiest performance: none, really, although the UCF game was a close one.

USC (21). If the undefeated Trojans win Saturday against Washington: They'll still need all the breaks imaginable to get into the conversation. The Trojans are way back at No. 15 in the CFP rankings heading into this week’s reveal, with three last-minutes wins and no games against ranked opponents. If the Trojans lose: They’re out, and the fans go back to demanding Clay Helton be fired. Best wins to date: at Utah, the comeback against UCLA. Shakiest performance: beating winless Arizona by four.

MORE DASH: Texas, Auburn Diverge | Championship Week | Auburn's Comical Start