Big East Midseason Check-in: After Layoff, Can Villanova Reassert Its Contender Status?

SI's midseason check-in on the Big East looks at the conference's biggest surprise, disappointment and 2021 NCAA tournament outlook.

We're halfway through the 2020–21 college basketball regular season, and conference play is well underway across the country. As teams jockey for position both in their own league standings and for NCAA tournament seeding, Sports Illustrated is checking in on the seven major conferences in men's college hoops (American, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC) this week to see where each stands and how it has shaped up compared with preseason expectations.

We've already done the American and Big 12; here is the Big East.

State of the conference

The Big East is known to be a gritty, deep conference, but a season impacted by COVID-19 has presented a challenge in maintaining the level of competition.

The season has had its share of breakout performances and upsets, but the Big East’s standings reflect a more distinct divide than what the conference is accustomed to. Just five teams are higher than .500 in conference play, while some programs have played as few as three conference games.

David Butler II/USA TODAY Sports

Though the conference is not proving to be as deep as it has been in recent years, the Big East still boasts talent that can vie for the national title—particularly in No. 3 Villanova, which is on a six-game winning streak but has not played since Dec. 23 due to COVID-19 protocols. No. 11 Creighton has also been a top competitor while No. 23 UConn has climbed up the ranks in its return to the conference.

Excitement for the Big East going forward lies in how the teams at the top of the standings perform, as there could be movement with key matchups upcoming. Of course, the health of the league will determine whether those contests can take place in what has already been a challenging year.

Biggest surprise: Xavier

The Musketeers have flipped the script on end-of-game scenarios this season. After struggling to close out games last year, the team has made a commonality out of game-winning shots—putting up three during its 10–2 start to the season.

NOTHING BUT NET 🔥🔥@kovajoness drills the game-winning 3 for @XavierMBB! pic.twitter.com/FsmyRNKipb

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) January 10, 2021

Xavier’s offense has improved all around, with the team’s averaging 8.1 more points per game than last season’s squad. The Musketeers have been boosted by Zach Freemantle, Paul Scruggs and Nate Johnson while also getting meaningful contributions from their freshman class.

Though the team has impressed so far, Xavier faces challenges ahead due to “COVID-related issues” in the program. Still, the team’s improved offense has established it as a threat in the Big East.

Biggest disappointment: St. John’s

The Red Storm’s depth was advertised heading into the season, but the team has struggled to find success in conference play due to its defense. St. John’s has allowed 78.5 points per game this season, which is only the 316th-best mark nationally.

For as much as the Red Storm’s defense has been a weakness, the squad’s offense has blossomed, averaging 79.0 points per game. Sophomore guard Julian Champagnie leads the Big East in points per game (20.7), while Greg Williams Jr. and Vince Cole have added sharp-shooting hands.

St. John’s has been known for its defensive grit under coach Mike Anderson, but the team has not been able to hit that level in conference play. The result has the Red Storm at ninth in the Big East based on conference record (3–6).

The current favorite: Villanova

It is difficult to pick a clear-cut favorite to win the Big East due to the recent inactivity of Villanova. The Wildcats, who hold a 3–0 record in conference play, are set to return vs. Seton Hall on Tuesday night.

Despite the time off, Villanova remains ranked No. 3 nationally midway through the season. The team has delivered with its experienced lineup, led by Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore.

No. 11 Creighton has been the Wildcats’ closest competitor at second place in the Big East, but the Bluejays have shown vulnerability in conference losses to Butler and Marquette. At this point, Villanova has too many offensive weapons to be dethroned as the favorite to take the regular-season conference crown. The only thing that would cause concern is if the team has a timid performance upon its return to the court.

The top challengers: Creighton and UConn

Creighton and UConn have both been tough to beat in conference play, but the Bluejays may hold the edge going forward. The Huskies received news that they will be without top scorer James Bouknight for an “indefinite period” after the guard received surgery on his elbow.

UConn has won without Bouknight, but most recently fell to struggling St. John’s for the team’s second conference loss. The Huskies will be tasked with making up Bouknight’s production, while the second-place Bluejays have a busy schedule ahead with Marcus Zegarowski's status up in the air due to an injured hamstring.

It is yet to be seen whether Creighton or UConn will have enough firepower to knock off Villanova, but they have the best standing going forward to make that leap.

Dark horse: Seton Hall

A slow start to the season for Seton Hall brought questions to the team’s offensive depth, but the Pirates have struck a balance with their 6–2 record in conference play. Sandro Mamukelashvili has played up to the standards expected of him during his senior season, averaging 18.1 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game.

The Pirates have been able to close out games thanks to Mamukelashvili and guard Jared Rhoden, who has taken a big jump this season while averaging 15.6 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. The team also has built off its defensive identity, ranking top-two in the Big East in total blocks (63) and steals (94).

Seton Hall has yet to take the leap above UConn in the Big East standings due to some inconsistency, particularly in the team’s performances against ranked talent. The Pirates can make a move into the top three if they find success in upcoming matchups against Villanova.

MORE: How Villanova, Creighton Stack Up Among Top Hoops Teams

NCAA tournament outlook

As it stands now, the Big East has five likely NCAA tournament teams: Villanova, Creighton, UConn, Seton Hall and Xavier. The next closest teams are Marquette and Providence, but their résumés are not strong enough yet to be considered among teams firmly on the bubble.

When it comes to title contenders, Villanova is likely to be in the conversation. The Wildcats are on track to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, but it is yet to be seen how the team will compete after going nearly a month between games. As for Creighton, the Bluejays may have a good opportunity at a No. 2 seed, but they will need to limit losses like their recent defeat to Butler.

Villanova entered the season as a title favorite, and its strong offensive core will likely see it maintain that status as the season progresses.