Bracket Watch: Can High Seeds Keep Making Their Case During Key Weekend?

With the SEC/Big 12 Challenge and several high-profile conference games ahead, this weekend’s men's college basketball action could have significant impacts on the field of 68 come March. Dive into the latest movement in Sports Illustrated’s projected field and see which teams can help themselves most this weekend.

The Bubble:

Colorado State soared from the fringes of the bubble into my projected field with Wednesday’s dominant performance against Mountain West leader Boise State. CSU has put together a surprisingly strong résumé that features three Quad 1 (Q1) wins, strong metrics and no losses outside Q1. A second win over the Broncos would position the Rams even better for an at-large.

Meanwhile, Arkansas gets a massive opportunity Saturday when it heads to Stillwater to play Oklahoma State. Beating OSU on the road would be a clear Q1 win for a Razorback team that needs one, and the Cowboys may be shorthanded as star guard Cade Cunningham waits to clear COVID-19 protocols. Michigan State’s Sunday trip to Ohio State also could have significant bubble implications if the Spartans can find a way to steal one against a top-20 team.

Last Four Byes:

Rutgers
San Diego State
North Carolina
Stanford

Last Four In:

Arkansas
Colorado State
Loyola Chicago
Pittsburgh

First Four Out:

Maryland
Indiana
Syracuse
Utah State

Next Four Out:

Providence
SMU
Marquette
Richmond

Brian Fluharty/USA TODAY Sports

* = team is projected to win its conference's automatic bid

Gonzaga Region:

No. 1 Gonzaga* vs. No. 16 Alabama A&M*/Coppin State*
No. 8 UConn vs. No. 9 Florida
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Toledo*
No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 13 UAB*
No. 6 Colorado vs. No. 11 St. Bonaventure
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 Grand Canyon*
No. 7. LSU vs. No. 10 Rutgers
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Bryant* 

Virginia has surged lately and is knocking on the door of a No. 2 seed. Can it keep its hot play up on the road in a rivalry game Saturday against a feisty Virginia Tech team? In an ACC that doesn’t have the top-end talent at the top it has featured in recent years, a road win against the Hokies would be about as much UVA can do to move the needle as anything in conference play.

Even after a dominant win vs. Michigan State Thursday, Rutgers could really use a road win at slumping Northwestern on Sunday. Beating up on the bottom of the Big Ten is a must for bubble teams given how deep and talented this league is, and a win in Evanston could wind up being a cheap Q1 win to add to the Scarlet Knights’ team sheet come March.

Baylor Region: 

No. 1 Baylor* vs. No. 16 UMBC*/Montana State*
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Xavier
No. 5 UCLA* vs. No. 12 Loyola Chicago/Arkansas
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Belmont*
No. 6 Purdue vs. No. 11 North Carolina
No. 3 Houston* vs. No. 14 Navy*
No. 7 Oklahoma vs. No. 10 Boise State*
No. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 15 Cleveland State*

Baylor has certainly been tested plenty in Big 12 play, but its Big 12/SEC Challenge foe Auburn should present some interesting challenges thanks to the presence of star point guard Sharife Cooper. The Bears’ top-ranked defense will take on an Auburn team that has scored a combined 197 points in its last two games behind Cooper’s elite play. Auburn has self-imposed a postseason ban for this season, but will be a feisty foe regardless. Closer to the bubble, North Carolina earned itself some breathing room with Tuesday night’s road win at Pittsburgh. A critical stretch that includes road trips to Clemson, Duke and Virginia in the Tar Heels’ next four games should tell us how good Roy Williams’s team is.

Michigan Region:

No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 Texas State*
No. 8 Drake* vs. No. 9 USC
No. 5 Missouri vs. No. 12 Colorado State/Pittsburgh
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 South Dakota State*
No. 6 Virginia Tech vs. No. 11 San Diego State
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 East Tennessee State*
No. 7 Seton Hall vs. No. 10 Saint Louis
No. 2 Alabama* vs. No. 15 UC Irvine*

With how much the SEC has struggled at times this season, Alabama’s road trip to Norman to play Oklahoma Saturday could be the toughest test left on its schedule. A win in a game like that would keep the door open for the Crimson Tide in their hopes for a No. 1 seed come March. 

Saint Louis came back from a COVID-19 pause and looked rusty in a home loss to Dayton, but finding a way to win on the road at Richmond would push them close to “lock” territory. On the other hand, a win for the Spiders in that game would give a major lift to a team that recently took a bad loss to La Salle. Meanwhile, Pitt desperately needs to snap a two-game skid in Saturday’s matchup with Notre Dame. Otherwise it will wind up on the wrong side of the bubble.

Villanova Region:

No. 1 Villanova* vs. No. 16 Sam Houston State*
No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 BYU
No. 5 Creighton vs. No. 12 Winthrop
No. 4 West Virginia vs. No. 13 Liberty*
No. 6 Minnesota vs. No. 11 Stanford
No. 3 Florida State vs. No. 14 Siena*
No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Louisville
No. 2 Iowa vs. No. 15 Northeastern*

Friday night’s showdown in Champaign between Illinois and No. 2 seed Iowa will be a fascinating one. The matchup between Kofi Cockburn and Luka Garza will be fantastic, and we’ll see if anyone in this Iowa backcourt can contain Ayo Dosunmu. A win for the Hawkeyes would put them in the No. 1 seed conversation. I remain less confident in Louisville’s “lock” status than the mainstream conversation would dictate thanks to mediocre metrics and just one Q1 win. Monday’s contest against Georgia Tech feels like close to a must-win for the Cardinals.

Sweeney's full projected bracket, as of Jan. 29: