FiveThirtyEight's Playoff Model Gives Playoff Odds For Top 8 Teams If They Win Out

The FiveThirtyEight playoff model is back for the College Football Playoff.

FiveThirtyEight's College Football Playoff model is back this year, and it suggests that heading into rivalry weekend, there are really only eight teams that could find themselves selected for the four-team event. Let's take a look at the different scenarios the model presents:

Our college football predictions: https://t.co/6TqVvJqse5

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) November 20, 2021

Georgia sits in the driver's seat. The Bulldogs currently have an 82% chance of making the playoff, and it goes to over 99% if they defeat Georgia Tech and Alabama. If they beat the Yellow Jackets but lose to Nick Saban & Co., there is still a 61% chance of making it.

Alabama currently has a 57% chance of making the College Football Playoff, but has to beat Auburn and Georgia to be selected. If the Crimson Tide can do that, they'll have over a 99% chance of inclusion.

Cincinnati has a 54% chance, and if it can win out, it winds up with an 87% chance. Many wonder if a one-loss Big 12 team could get in ahead of the Bearcats. It would be very interesting.

Ohio State controls its own destiny. The Buckeyes have a 52% chance of qualifying, but that shoots up to over 99% if they beat Michigan and then win the Big Ten title game. 

Oklahoma State is perhaps in the most interesting position in the model. If the Cowboys beat Oklahoma and then win the Big 12 championship, they have over a 99% chance of getting in. Right now, those odds sit at just 42%.

Michigan is essentially in the same position as Ohio State. If the Wolverines can upset the Buckeyes and then win the Big Ten, they'll be at over 99% chance of making the four-team event.

Some believe that Notre Dame has a good chance of sliding into the four-seed because the Fighting Irish don't have to play a conference title game. FiveThirtyEight's model does not. It gives the Irish a 28% right now and just a 31% if they win out and beat Stanford.

Oklahoma is the last team still in the picture. The Sooners would have to beat Oklahoma State and then win the Big 12 to have an 87% chance of making the field. But right now, they sit at just 24%.

No other team has more than a 27% chance of getting in, even if it wins out.

Saturday will be important for many teams, with matchups between Ohio State and Michigan, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and Alabama and Auburn. We'll know a lot more in just 48 hours.

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