Predicting When the Six Undefeated Teams Will Take Their First Loss

Only a handful of men’s teams can still say they’re perfect on the season, but how long will it last?

Men’s college basketball’s undefeated count is down to six. In a year that has featured plenty of parity at the top of the polls, these six teams have survived six weeks without a loss. These impressive starts range from “not that surprising” (Baylor) to “downright stunning” (Iowa State). As conference play heats up once the holiday season ends, it’s a good time to think about when the final six unbeatens will take their first loss of the season. Here are Sports Illustrated’s picks for who will put an end to each remaining undefeated team’s hot start.

LSU: Dec. 29 at Auburn

LSU’s undefeated opening has been keyed by perhaps the most impressive defensive turnaround of the season. Defense has been the Tigers’ Achilles’ heel under WIll Wade, with just one top-100 KenPom defense in his first four seasons at the helm. This year, LSU has KenPom’s No. 1 defense thanks to a deep stable of wings with elite length and high-level defensive playmaking instincts. This group forces turnovers, blocks shots and just generally makes life very difficult for opposing teams.

That said, I do expect its unbeaten run to end soon. Auburn is one of the best teams in college basketball at taking care of the ball, which could thwart LSU’s defensive game plan. Plus, Auburn has Jabari Smith Jr., whose shotmaking ability at 6' 10" is unmatched in the sport. He’ll be able to shoot over the top of defenders like Tari Eason and Alex Fudge. Add in that it’s the first true road game of the season for LSU, and I think its great run to open the season comes to an end soon.

Arizona: Dec. 30 at UCLA

The 11–0 Wildcats are entering a Murderers’ Row in the next 11 days, with three true road games against top-20 KenPom teams. As it stands now, Arizona won’t play another top-40 KenPom team on the road for the remainder of the season after this stretch, let alone a top-20 team. So while I’m a huge believer in Tommy Lloyd’s club as Pac-12 and national title contenders, the winning streak will end soon.

The lone caveat to my prediction of UCLA being the team to beat the Wildcats is UCLA’s COVID-19 situation. The Bruins have had three games canceled due to COVID-19 cases in the program, and if any key players aren’t available for the Dec. 30 game it changes the calculus. But it’s not easy to win at Pauley Pavilion, and Arizona hasn’t faced a team as battle-tested as these Bruins. As Cody Riley gets back to full health, the UCLA offense becomes incredibly hard to guard.

James Akinjo and Baylor are one of two Big 12 teams yet to taste defeat :: Chris Jones/USA TODAY Sports

Iowa State: Jan. 1 vs. Baylor

The Cyclones are this season’s biggest surprise, off to an 11–0 start in Year 1 under T.J. Otzelberger a year after ISU went 2–22. I’m not sure the Clones will stick in the top 25 all season long, but this is a clear NCAA tournament team, and Otzelberger belongs in the National Coach of the Year conversation because of it.

Still, despite how strong a home court advantage the Cyclones enjoy at Hilton Coliseum, their undefeated season will come to an end against No. 1 Baylor on New Year’s Day. I’m just not sure how Iowa State can score against this Baylor defense, a group whose no-middle scheme makes it really hard for guards to get downhill. It’s a particularly challenging defense for a freshman point guard, and the Cyclones rely on one in Tyrese Hunter. ISU would have to have an uncharacteristically hot shooting day to find a way to win this game.

USC: Jan. 2 vs. Arizona

The Trojans losing Evan Mobley and still potentially entering the new year undefeated is a major credit to the job Andy Enfield has done lately at USC. Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis has brought scoring pop in the backcourt, and the frontcourt duo of Chevez Goodwin and Isaiah Mobley is one of the best big man pairings in the sport.

That said, if there’s one team that can match the Trojans up front, it’s Arizona. Christian Koloko has erased the impacts of pretty much every center he has faced, and Azuolas Tubelis has the size and physicality to make Mobley work. Combine that with my having more trust in Arizona’s guards than USC’s, and the Wildcats will find a way to win this one and end the Trojans’ dream start.

Colorado State: Jan. 7 at Boise State

The 10–0 Rams just had the toughest game on their schedule (playing Alabama in Birmingham) wiped away due to COVID-19 issues. And while I’m sure Niko Medved’s club would have much preferred to play the game, it does open up the possibility that CSU stays unbeaten for a while. With the exception of this tricky road tilt at Boise State, the Rams won’t play a top-200 KenPom team away from home until Jan. 31 at Wyoming. There’s at least a path to this team being undefeated entering February.

That said, I do believe CSU’s unbeaten start will come to an end in Idaho’s capital. It’s a tough place to play, and the Broncos’ defense is elite thanks to their length and athleticism. That length could bother star Rams point guard Isaiah Stevens, though big man David Roddy put up impressive numbers in both games last season against Boise.

Baylor: Jan. 29 at Alabama

Baylor struggled in its first true road game of the season but found a way to get past Oregon in Eugene on Saturday. Given how underwhelming the Ducks had been up to that point this season, it’s perhaps yet another lesson that no road game in college basketball can be looked past. Still, if Baylor can survive a New Year’s Day road trip to Iowa State (as I believe it will), it could stay unbeaten for a while.

Late January into early February is where the schedule really toughens for the Bears. This trip to Alabama for the SEC/Big 12 Challenge starts that, and it’s a tricky matchup for Baylor given Alabama’s elite ballhandlers and high-level shooting. Plus, the crowd in Tuscaloosa will be rocking. But even if Baylor makes it through that game unscathed, its undefeated season may not last much longer. The Bears play at Allen Fieldhouse against Kansas the following weekend and go to Texas Tech two weeks later. 

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