National Championship Predictions: Will Alabama or Georgia Prevail?

SI's college football writers pick their 2021 national champion, plus game MVP, and explain why.

Four months after the 2021 college football season started, the national championship game is here. This year's will be an all-SEC affair, with No. 1 Alabama and No. 3 Georgia squaring off a month after the Crimson Tide beat the Bulldogs by 17 in the SEC championship game.

Their December meeting in Atlanta opened up old questions for Kirby Smart and the Dawgs, but they have a chance to put them to rest by winning the rematch in Indianapolis. While Georgia is gunning for its first national title since 1980, Nick Saban and Alabama are looking to go back-to-back and earn their seventh title since 2009.

Will the Dawgs finally get over the Bama hump? Or will the Tide's dynasty roll on? SI's college football writers make their predictions for Monday night's clash.

Georgia will need to avenge an SEC title loss to capture its first national championship since 1980 :: Brynn Anderson/AP

Pat Forde: Georgia 24, Alabama 20. 

I'm probably being stubborn here, but I'm prepared to die on the Georgia hill. I've watched the Bulldogs play 13 dominant games and one bad one—a higher hit rate than Alabama, although there was little doubt who was better when they played each other in Atlanta. Still, The injury to John Metchie III makes this an easier defensive task for Georgia, which now can tilt coverage toward Jameson Williams while also being able to devote more bodies to pressuring Bryce Young. Georgia has to get him on the ground and/or force more errant throws than it did in the first meeting.

I expect this to be more of a phone booth game than the last one, which devolved into Young and Alabama's receivers operating in open space. I expect Stetson Bennett to avoid turnovers this time. And I expect some of the big holes the Dogs' offensive line was able to open in Atlanta to result in longer gains—Alabama tackled extraordinarily well after being gashed a bit at the line of scrimmage in that game. As usual, Georgia will get ahead of the Crimson Tide. This time, it will stay ahead. The championship wait and Bama heartache both come to an end for the Dogs.

Forde's pick for MVP: Nakobe Dean, Georgia linebacker

Probably should have been the defensive MVP of the Orange Bowl. Incredibly fast and possessing good instincts, look for Georgia's leading sacker to heat up Young on blitzes and put a lot of hits on Brian Robinson Jr.

Ross Dellenger: Alabama 27, Georgia 24

It's hard to beat a team twice in a season, let alone twice within the span of a month. But guess what's harder? To beat Nick Saban in a national championship game. This is his 10th title bout. He's lost two, each time to a Clemson team led by the best quarterback in college football that particular season: Deshaun Watson  (2015) and Trevor Lawrence (2018).

Georgia QB Stetson Bennett isn't on that level, and the Tide seem to have found a groove in their bludgeoning of the Bulldogs, 41–24, a month ago in the SEC championship game. Sure, Georgia's defense is generational. But have you seen Alabama's receivers? The Bulldogs' secondary struggled to keep pace the first time around and there's no reason to think it won't have more issues in the sequel (though WR John Metchie III's absence will hurt).

Give me Saban or give me death.

Dellenger's pick for MVP: Bryce Young, Alabama QB

Why not pick the Heisman Trophy winner? Young torched the Bulldogs last month, throwing for 421 yards and three touchdowns.

Richard Johnson: Georgia 31, Alabama 28

The Dawgs will finally have their day in this game. The question surrounding Alabama for me is if Bryce Young can repeat the performance he had in the SEC title game on the positive end and if Georgia’s defense will repeat the negative plays that it had. Young, even more so than Jameson Williams, had to put quite a bit on his shoulders while Alabama stormed back from an early deficit. The challenge for UGA will, simply put, be getting Young on the ground and converting the pressure it does get on him into sacks at a higher rate than it did in the SEC championship game. It’s difficult to beat a team twice, even for a team as good as the Tide, and I don’t think Bama is 17 points better than Georgia in general.

Johnson's pick for MVP: Stetson Bennett, Georgia QB

If Georgia wins, there’s no way that it won’t be looked at as a vindication for one Dawg in particular. 

John Garcia: Alabama 28, Georgia 24

While there is no shortage of storylines heading into the rematch of the SEC championship game, the trenches come to mind in a battle of like-minded rosters. Both the Alabama offensive line, against Georgia, and the Bulldogs line, against Michigan—overachieved in their biggest matchups of the year. Keeping each respective quarterback upright will be key in a game where few should expect consistent running lanes against the other's elite front seven. It means the game could once again come down to Bryce Young against Stetson Bennett as passers, improvisers and executioners against secondaries that have shown vulnerability at different points. 

Young has a bit more help on his side from a pass-catchers perspective, with a host of compliments to Jameson Williams, while Bennett will again rely on tight end Brock Bowers for the bulk of the work. The Alabama pass rush is better positioned to pressure Bennett without extra bodies, and the former walk-on has been more prone to turn the ball over compared to Young in the past. It won't be by a wide margin, but some of the closer areas for comparison break Bama's way from a personnel standpoint. 

Add in the experience under Nick Saban, who typically holds an ace in the hole for title games, and the margins feel more crimson than red and black this time around. If not now for Georgia, though, when? 

Garcia's pick for MVP: Bryce Young

The Heisman Trophy winner was the difference in the first matchup because of his arm, but his legs will play paramount on a night where the traditional running game may not have much success.