Bracket Watch: Kansas Makes a Move, Duke Squanders an Opportunity

Meanwhile, BYU and Oklahoma are in free fall, but can they stay on the right side of the men’s NCAA tournament bubble?

For the second straight week, we have a new team on the No. 1 line! These big Saturday slates have significant impacts on the men’s field of 68 as we inch closer to Selection Sunday. Who helped (and hurt) themselves most in the last week?

Beginning Friday, I’ll also be doing a weekly bracketology mailbag that will answer your questions about anything bracket-related in addition to updating the bracket after the midweek action. You can send your questions to me via Twitter or email them to Kevin.Sweeney@si.com!

Without further ado, Sports Illustrated’s latest projected field: 

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes:

Oregon
Miami
BYU
North Carolina

Last Four In:

Florida
Oklahoma
Creighton
San Diego State

First Four Out:

Notre Dame
Mississippi State
Virginia
Belmont

Next Four Out:

West Virginia
Michigan
UAB
Saint Louis

BYU is officially in free fall, now a loser of four straight to tumble to 17–8 on the season and just 5–5 in the WCC. For now though, at least, it’s staying in my projected field. The Cougars have a combined nine Q1 and Q2 wins and are 9–7 in those games. The road loss at Pacific suffered last weekend is an eyesore, but not something that can’t be overcome, particularly considering how weak so many résumés are. If the Cougars win their four remaining games against Loyola Marymount (2x) and Pepperdine (2x), I think they’ll be in relatively comfortably, even with a loss to Saint Mary’s in their last remaining big test of the regular season in two weeks.

Meanwhile, the Big 12 is almost too good for its own good. Qualitative metrics buy into the likes of Oklahoma, West Virginia and Kansas State as bubble teams, but eventually the quantity of losses may wind up being too much for the committee to swallow. West Virginia has now lost seven straight games, while Oklahoma has lost seven of eight. The Sooners are still hanging in the field for now, but at 3–7 in conference play with a loaded next five games upcoming (home vs. Texas Tech, at Kansas, home vs. Texas, at Iowa State and at Texas Tech), things don’t look promising for Porter Moser’s club.

*Indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid

West Region

No. 1 Gonzaga* vs. No. 16 New Orleans*/Southern*
No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 9 Indiana
No. 5 Marquette vs. No. 12 Florida/Oklahoma
No. 4 Texas vs. No. 13 Chattanooga*
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 BYU
No. 3 Providence* vs. No. 14 Wagner*
No. 7. LSU vs. No. 10 San Francisco
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Longwood*

For the first time this season, Baylor is off the No. 1 line. The Bears’ great résumé (7–3 vs. Q1, no bad losses) keeps them in the conversation with a month to go, but the blowout loss to Kansas on Saturday left a sour taste in my mouth and caused a rather significant dent to their predictive metrics. Plus, Baylor still doesn’t have an elite win this season—its best one is a home victory over Villanova.

On the No. 3 line, Providence earns its highest mark of the season in our projected field. The Friars are a tricky team to seed because of the massive difference between their predictive and results-based metrics. The two purely results-based metrics the NCAA considers (KPI and strength of record) each have Providence as the No. 3 team in the country. Meanwhile, the NET has the Friars at No. 26, and KenPom has them even worse at No. 41. If their NET and KenPom don’t improve, it’s hard to see anything better than a No. 3 seed … though the committee’s top 16 reveal later this month should be illuminating. 

South Region

No. 1 Auburn* vs. No. 16 UNC-Wilmington*/Norfolk State*
No. 8 Wyoming* vs. No. 9 Loyola Chicago*
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Creighton/San Diego State
No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 13 Ohio*
No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Oregon
No. 3 Duke* vs. No. 14 Vermont*
No. 7 Xavier vs. No. 10 Iowa
No. 2 Houston* vs. No. 15 Yale*

Duke was poised to jump onto the No. 2 line after double-digit road victories at Notre Dame and North Carolina in the past week. Not only were those wins two of the better ones you can collect in ACC play, but they also came with the style points that are necessary for the Blue Devils to rack up given the relatively weak state of the ACC right now. But Monday night’s home loss to Virginia bumped Duke right back to the three line. For now, it’s a Q3 loss, though Virginia’s NET (80) could easily jump into the top 75 soon. Even if it does, yet another home loss to a bubble team really hurts this Duke team’s case for a top-two seed in the Big Dance.

In the “on the bubble” section, I mentioned the Big 12’s issue of being “too good” and the ways it will impact bubble teams. That quandary could also start to impact Iowa State, as the Cyclones are now just 3–7 in the conference after a perfect 13–0 nonconference slate. It feels nearly impossible for ISU not to go dancing, but the optics of putting in a team with, say, a 6–12 conference record might be tricky. The good news for the Cyclones is that their schedule becomes more manageable starting this week. After playing seven top-50 KenPom teams in their first 10 conference games, they will see just two more the rest of the regular season.

Midwest Region

No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Cleveland State*
No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Davidson*
No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 12 North Texas*
No. 4 Villanova vs. No. 13 New Mexico State*
No. 6 Saint Mary's vs. No. 11 North Carolina
No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Weber State*
No. 7 UConn vs. No. 10 Wake Forest
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Appalachian State*

One team that keeps rising in our projected field is Saint Mary’s, which makes yet another seed line jump up to a No. 6 this week. Part of that is simply because other teams in that 6–8 seed range keep dropping games, but the NET increasingly likes the Gaels (up 21 spots since the calendar flipped to 2022) and their résumé is extremely clean so far (just one loss outside Q1 and none in Q3/Q4). With only two remaining games against Q3/Q4 opponents, the Gaels can be considered locks to go dancing. And if Saint Mary's can pick off Gonzaga in one of the team’s two meetings in February, it could sky even further up the seed list. 

East Region

No. 1 Kansas* vs. No. 16 Cal State Fullerton*
No. 8 TCU vs. No. 9 Boise State
No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Iona
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 South Dakota State*
No. 6 USC vs. No. 11 Miami
No. 3 Illinois* vs. No. 14 Jacksonville State*
No. 7 Murray State* vs. No. 10 Colorado State
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Colgate*

Kansas takes the place of Baylor on the No. 1 line after blowing out the Bears by 24 Saturday at Allen Fieldhouse, but their road loss Monday at Texas sends the Jayhawks to Philly rather than Chicago as the fourth No. 1. The bottom line: If KU wins the Big 12, it will be very hard to justify not putting the Jayhawks on the top line.

It was a good week for Illinois, which rises to the No. 3 line after beating Wisconsin and Indiana to add two Q1 wins to its résumé in four days. If the Illini win Tuesday night at Purdue, they have a very real chance of a No. 1 seed with just more than a month until Selection Sunday.

How damaging is Iona’s first MAAC loss? The Gaels fell to Niagara on Sunday, the first Q3/Q4 loss on an otherwise-clean résumé. If being evaluated without an automatic bid from the MAAC right now, Iona would be one of our last four teams in and heading to Dayton for the First Four. The problem: Not getting the automatic bid would mean Iona is taking another loss, which would hurt the Gaels’ standing. I think Iona can afford one more loss this season to get in, which means either winning out in MAAC regular-season play or being auto-bid-or-bust come conference tournament time.

SI's full projected tournament field (as of Feb. 8):

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