Bracket Watch: Arkansas Makes Its Move; Michigan Enters Pivotal Stretch

Plus, the weekend was a mixed bag for bubble teams as time begins to run out on the men’s regular season.

With less than a week until conference tournaments get underway and a new understanding of how the men’s NCAA tournament selection committee is thinking after Saturday’s top 16 release, it’s officially crunch time in bracket world. So what’s new after a big weekend that saw upsets, tight finishes and plenty of needle-moving wins? Sports Illustrated updates its projected field of 68 as we get closer to Selection Sunday. 

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes:

San Francisco
Creighton
Notre Dame
Indiana

Last Four In:

San Diego State
Memphis
Rutgers
SMU

First Four Out:

BYU
North Carolina
VCU
Oklahoma

Next Four Out:

Belmont
Oregon
Dayton
Kansas State

Welcome back to the field, San Diego State. The Aztecs are coming off a huge week, beating a pair of teams in the top 75 of the NET in Utah State and Fresno State by a combined 36 points. In the process, SDSU jumped from No. 50 to No. 32 in the NET and from No. 43 to No. 23 in KenPom. That, combined with a résumé with no losses outside of Quad 1, gives the Mountain West a fourth NCAA tournament bid for now.

One riser that didn’t quite make the cut is VCU, our third team out of the field in Tuesday’s update. The Rams have two great road wins in conference play at Davidson and Dayton, and a 6–6 overall record in Q1 + Q2 games. Also worth noting: VCU started 4–4 while starting point guard Adrian “Ace” Baldwin Jr. was sidelined with an Achilles injury and is 14–3 since his return. Could the committee consider the Rams’ elevated play once fully healthy and give them a nod over other bubble teams? The margin for error isn’t large, but this team is worth tracking.

Jaylin Williams celebrates during Arkansas's weekend win over Tennessee :: Nelson Chenault/USA TODAY Sports

*Indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid

West Region

No. 1 Gonzaga* vs. No. 16 New Orleans*/Alcorn State*
No. 8 Murray State vs. No. 9 Boise State*
No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 Rutgers/Memphis
No. 4 Texas vs. No. 13 Chattanooga*
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 11 Indiana
No. 3 Villanova vs. No. 14 Wagner*
No. 7. Xavier vs. No. 10 Michigan
No. 2 Duke* vs. No. 15 Longwood*

Arkansas was among the biggest winners of the weekend with its huge home win over Tennessee. The Razorbacks have two elite-level wins, against Auburn and the Vols, and the only black mark on their résumé is a pair of Quad 3 losses (one, to Vanderbilt, could sneak into Q2). There’s certainly a path for Eric Musselman’s club to a top-four seed in the dance if the Hogs can finish strong.

Where does Michigan stand after a tumultuous few days? I wouldn’t expect the committee to give the Wolverines any benefit of the doubt for losses sustained with Juwan Howard suspended. With four of the team’s remaining five regular-season games in Quadrant 1, this group will have to survive a gantlet if it wants a spot in the field. Going 3–2 in their final five gets the Wolverines in—anything less will have them sweating heading into the Big Ten tournament.

South Region

No. 1 Arizona* vs. No. 16 UNC-Wilmington*/Norfolk State*
No. 8 Colorado State vs. No. 9 TCU
No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 San Diego State/SMU*
No. 4 Providence* vs. No. 13 South Dakota State*
No. 6 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 11 Creighton
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Texas State*
No. 7 Marquette vs. No. 10 Loyola Chicago
No. 2 Purdue* vs. No. 15 Montana State*

Arizona was the No. 3 overall seed in the selection committee’s top 16 reveal Saturday, but climbs to No. 2 on our seed list after Auburn’s loss to Florida later that day. Given that the committee already had Arizona in the South region and Auburn heading to the Midwest, the practical implications of this shift are relatively minimal. Arizona would still be playing in San Antonio for the Sweet 16/Elite Eight and would stay on the opposite side of the bracket from Gonzaga.

One story line closer to the bubble comes from the Missouri Valley, where Loyola Chicago has seen its margin for error grow thinner and thinner as conference play wears on. Saturday’s home loss to Drake gives Loyola four conference losses, including its first Q3 loss of the season. Bubble teams should be rooting for the Ramblers in the MVC tournament next weekend, though any more losses for Loyola would push it dangerously close to the bubble cut line if it doesn’t get the league’s automatic bid.

Midwest Region

No. 1 Auburn* vs. No. 16 Cleveland State*
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Wyoming
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 North Texas
No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 Toledo*
No. 6 Michigan State vs. No. 11 Notre Dame
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Princeton*
No. 7 LSU vs. No. 10 Davidson
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Long Beach State*

Committee chairman Tom Burnett made clear that Baylor is right in the mix for a No. 1 seed, though, the Bears just missed the cut in favor of Kansas in the top 16 announcement. That makes this Saturday’s showdown with the Jayhawks incredibly important, particularly considering the Bears got blown out by Kansas earlier this month in Lawrence. It’s hard to believe Baylor can get on the No. 1 line without winning the rematch in Waco.

Could North Texas make a push for an at-large bid, should it falter in the C-USA tournament? Saturday’s road win at UAB gives the Mean Green a fighting chance. They have just one Q1 win, but are 5–2 in Q2 games and have just one Q3 loss. I wouldn’t necessarily bet on UNT getting in without earning the C-USA autobid, but as with Loyola, bubble teams should be rooting for as little chaos as possible.

East Region

No. 1 Kansas* vs. No. 16 Colgate*
No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 9 Wake Forest
No. 5 Houston* vs. No. 12 Iona*
No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 13 Vermont*
No. 6 USC vs. No. 11 San Francisco
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 New Mexico State*
No. 7 Iowa State vs. No. 10 Miami
No. 2 Kentucky* vs. No. 15 Jacksonville State*

A team with a remaining schedule that provides room to move up the seed list is Illinois, which has three more Q1 games among its final four before more potential opportunities at the Big Ten tournament. If the Illini can add multiple Q1 wins down the stretch, they could make a real push for a No. 2 seed … especially if teams above them slip up.

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One of the most important bubble-related wins of the weekend came in Winston-Salem, where Wake Forest knocked off Notre Dame to help solidify the Demon Deacons’ place in the NCAA tournament. Two wins in three games to close the regular season should probably be enough, and going three-for-three could have Wake wearing its home colors in its first game. That would be quite the turnaround for Steve Forbes’s team, which won just six games in all of 2020–21.

Full projected bracket, as of Feb. 22:

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