Midwest Region Breakdown: Battle-Tested Kansas Faces Unpredictable Road

Bill Self’s squad is brimming with confidence after its conference title. But will a region that’s full of talent challenge a Jayhawks squad poised to make a run?

March Madness is upon us, and the release of Sunday’s 2022 men’s NCAA tournament field of 68 means it’s time to start analyzing seedings, matchups and potential Cinderellas

Over in the Midwest Region, Kansas is in a spot it’s been before as the No. 1 seed, but it has challengers like Auburn, Wisconsin, Providence and Iowa waiting. So with the path to the Final Four set, we’re sizing up the players, teams and games to watch in each region.

Who will make it out of Chicago and punch a ticket to New Orleans? Here’s our Midwest Region preview and prediction.

MORE REGIONS: West | South | East

The Jayhawks, led by Ochai Agbaji (left), are seeking their fourth national title :: Ben Queen/USA TODAY Sports

State of the No. 1 seed: Kansas

The Jayhawks enter this week as one of the most battle-tested teams in the country and fresh off a Big 12 tournament title. Led by an experienced core of players headlined by Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun, Kansas hasn’t faltered much at all this season: A one-point neutral-court loss to Dayton, which missed making the tourney by an inch, was its only non-conference loss, and every other team that beat the Jayhawks made the field. Bill Self and his team shouldn’t lack for motivation, either: Kansas hasn’t made the tourney’s second weekend since 2018. Several key players were around for the second-round exit in 2019, and the Jayhawks were memorably demolished by USC last year. If you value experiential learning under pressure, this group seems ripe to meet expectations this time around.

This isn’t the most talented team Self has had in his 19 seasons at Kansas, but it has been remarkably steady, employing a fast-paced and highly democratic offense while using its size and strength effectively on the defensive end. The formidable trio of Agbaji, Braun and Jalen Wilson allows the Jayhawks to guard, rebound, and match up physically with opposing personnel: They can defend big with David McCormack at center, while still running in transition like a smaller team.

There are some holes worth poking here, beginning at point guard. Dajuan Harris distributes and takes care of the ball well, but scored in double-digits just six times this season, and his platoon-mate Remy Martin can be a notoriously loose cannon with his shot selection. Other than Agbaji (40.5% from deep), the Jayhawks aren’t an outstanding three-point shooting team, as their other quality distance shooter is Braun (37.3%), who shoots a flat, streaky shot. It’s also worth noting that backup big Mitch Lightfoot hurt his knee Saturday, and there’s been no official update as of Sunday evening. His absence would create a depth void up front behind foul-prone McCormack, with freshmen Zach Clemence and KJ Adams next up in some combination.

The good news for Kansas is that its route to New Orleans is reasonable, as top challengers Auburn, Wisconsin, Providence and Iowa all have their flaws, and will have individual hurdles to clear to simply make the second weekend. But this region is high on quality and star power, and could breed some unexpected results.

Toughest draw: No. 4 Providence

The Friars were shellacked by Creighton (the No. 9 seed in this region) at the Big East tournament and despite having just five losses and a handful of impressive wins, don’t rate particularly well in the advanced metrics. Things are never easy for teams on the 4–5 line, but they could wind up facing a red-hot Iowa team that just won the Big Ten tournament, led by irrepressible force Keegan Murray. To get there, they have to suppress a high-powered 30–4 South Dakota State team that runs a fast-paced, highly efficient offense (and have a stud in Baylor Scheierman) and is capable of winning a track meet. The Friars struggled badly to make threes and free throws in their conference tournament, and while it helps that they’re one of the oldest teams in the field, there could be little margin for error if the cold spell continues.

Team that could bust your bracket: No. 5 Iowa

It feels aesthetically incorrect to highlight the Big Ten tourney champion as a bracket buster, but the Hawkeyes could legitimately win this region as a five-seed if things break correctly. They’ve lost just twice since the start of February and feature the country’s second-most efficient attack, per KenPom, taking terrific care of the ball and employing a relatively deep bench this time of year. They don’t have an easy first-round draw—Richmond won the A-10 tournament and has one of the most cohesive, experienced teams in the field—but they’re playing well at the right time, might get a favorable second-round draw against Providence if the chalk holds, and can be a second-weekend problem if this keeps up.

Iowa doesn’t have a massive center to control the paint, leaving the Hawkeyes vulnerable at the rim defensively. It does have a National Player of the Year candidate in Keegan Murray, who dominates games in a variety of ways and has been lights-out from three-point range, particularly of late. Iowa has struggled to beat top-flight opponents, losing to Illinois and Purdue twice in league play as well as Wisconsin (the No. 3 seed in this region), but looked like a scary, composed team while winning four games in Indy, and ultimately put the Boilermakers away for the title. Think long and hard about the new, possibly-for-real improved version of Iowa.

Player to watch: Jabari Smith Jr., Auburn

This will be the only time SI’s projected No. 1 draft pick plays in the tournament, and the Tigers may need transcendent play from him in order to live up to their No. 2 seed. Following a scalding 22–1 start, Auburn has gone just 5–4 since its brief stint atop the national polls ended in early February, losing a few close games, then notably faltering in the SEC quarterfinals against Texas A&M. Bruce Pearl wants his teams to run and launch threes, but other than Smith (43% from distance), Auburn’s principles have struggled to make longballs consistently, and its guard play can be highly unreliable, both from a ball security and shot-selection perspective. The Tigers could be sharper in all facets right now, but it will be pivotal that they get the ball to Smith when it matters most. His unblockable jumper and late-game confidence can give them a dimension no other team has. Auburn’s flaws are what they are, but Smith is capable of closing games and covering up the problems on his good days, which have come more frequently over the past six weeks.

Most intriguing matchup: No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Colgate

I’m not saying to expect an upset, as the Badgers have generally taken all comers this season and will rely on one of the tournament’s biggest stars in Johnny Davis. But it’s important to note that Wisconsin has lost its last two games, and that Davis sprained his ankle last weekend against Nebraska, which likely played a role in his poor 3-of-19 shooting in the Badgers’ conference tourney loss to Michigan State. Colgate is an interesting matchup given they play a similarly slow, systematic brand of ball and won’t be bothered by a game that should hinge heavily on half-court execution. Also recall that the Raiders went to the tourney last year with mostly the same core players, and played Arkansas extremely close for most of a first-round loss. 

As long as Davis is healthy (he’s taken a beating and played through minor injuries all season), Wisconsin should be fine. It can lean on an underrated supporting cast of Brad Davison, Chucky Hepburn and Tyler Wahl as well. The Badgers have a pretty comfortable path to the second weekend all things considered, with either Will Wade-less LSU or vulnerable Iowa State awaiting if they win. But weird things happen in the tourney, and considering the Badgers have infrequently blown out opponents this season, this has potential to be a closer game than you think.

Regional finalists: Kansas and Auburn

I like Iowa to make the Sweet 16 and give the Jayhawks a serious run, but don’t buy the Hawkeyes enough defensively to bank on an upset. Kansas has a big enough team to give Iowa problems and should be ready for the big stage. 

There’s certainly potential for Auburn to falter early—the way things have been going, I don’t fully trust Wendell Green Jr. and K.D. Johnson to manage play in big games—but thankfully, they have arguably the best frontcourt duo in the country in Smith and Walker Kessler, giving them ample defensive backbone and a margin for error against inferior teams. The Tigers need to rediscover their form sooner than later, as USC and Miami are both capable of giving them a close second-round game, and Wisconsin would present a stylistic test of patience in the Sweet 16. But ultimately, Auburn has the talent to make easy work of most opponents on a good day, and are staring down a winnable route to the Elite Eight, particularly if Wisconsin falters.

Pick to win the region: Kansas

The Jayhawks are best-positioned to emerge from a region that threatens to be a battle of attrition for each top seed, as they have the balance and experience to navigate the bracket.

Full Midwest Region:

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Texas Southern/Texas A&M-CC
No. 8 San Diego State vs. No. 9 Creighton
No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 Richmond
No. 4 Providence vs. No. 13 South Dakota State
No. 6 LSU vs. No. 11 Iowa State
No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Colgate
No. 7 USC vs. No. 10 Miami
No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 15 Jacksonville State