ESPN’s Preseason FPI Suggests Only Four Teams Have Realistic Shot at Winning National Title Next Year

Only three of those teams have a greater than 20% chance of winning the national championship.

ESPN has released its 2022 college football preseason football power index (FPI).

The FPI metric has been used widely across the sport in recent years as a predictive measure of performance of teams across the course of a season. 

According to the latest release, here are the top 10 teams in college football for 2022 per the FPI:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia 
4. Clemson
5. Texas
6. Notre Dame
7. Michigan
8. Oklahoma
9. Pittsburgh
10. Auburn

The FPI has given five teams a 20% chance or greater to reach the College Football Playoff. Those teams, in order, include:

1. Ohio State - 82.3%
2. Alabama - 79.3%
3. Georgia - 73.5%
4. Clemson - 59.0%
5. Texas - 21.0%

The FPI has given four teams a 20% chance or greater to reach the national championship game. Those teams, in order, include:

1. Alabama - 51.6%
2. Ohio State - 50.0%
3. Georgia - 42.9%
4. Clemson - 25.9%

The FPI has also only given four teams a greater than 10% of winning the national championship, and only three teams have been given a greater than 20% chance of winning the national championship. Those teams, in order, include:

1. Alabama - 30.1%
2. Ohio State - 27.4%
3. Georgia - 22.7%
4. Clemson - 11.1%

As the FPI seems to suggest, the blue bloods will once again emerge in similar fashion as they have in recent years. Dabo Swinney of Clemson and Nick Saban of Alabama are the only two coaches to win multiple national championships in the College Football Playoff era.

Ohio State won one under Urban Meyer, and has appeared in a championship with Ryan Day in the 2020 COVID season against Alabama.

Georgia won their first national championship of the College Football Playoff era this past season under Kirby Smart, and returns a strong team and excellent recruiting class as they seek to repeat in 2022.