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Five Programs Needing a Successful 2022 Season to Raise Recruiting Ceilings

Here’s how the early stages of the college football season will play a large role in the recruiting game.

John Garcia Jr.

Scan a list of top recruiting classes entering the 2022 college football season and many of the programs near No. 1 profile as familiar. 

Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson are all among those in the mix for the top spot. Not much on-field happenings are likely to push any of them down the list too much, barring an unforeseen scandal, head coaching change, etc. 

But there's a sense of new blood in the mix thereafter, with the likes of Steve Sarkisian and Texas and Mario Cristobal and Miami charging up the list. Each enjoyed monster summer recruiting hauls filled with banner commitments, like SI99 top-five quarterback prospects Arch Manning and Jaden Rashada, en route to top-10 classes to date.

Several other programs putting together good-to-great recruiting classes feel less secure than the usual bluebloods, and the season’s arrival could prove to be a stark reminder depending on how things go. Like Texas and The U, each looking to return to prominence on the field and on the trail simultaneously, some programs will need a strong on-field swing to narrow the gap between the haves and the have-nots. 

(Programs listed alphabetically)

Auburn

The offseason Auburn football has endured has finally come to an end, but it won't lessen the spotlight on the program on the Plains. The recruiting class Bryan Harsin and his staff has built is considerably strong in talent, though not in volume at just eight total pledges (two in the SI99 in running back Jeremiah Cobb and pass rusher Ashley Williams). Noticeably absent from the commitment list are a quarterback and multiple offensive linemen, easily the biggest need in tracking future rosters. 

Luckily for the Tigers, the early season slate aligns with plenty of home games at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The friendly confines, the setting for the first five games of the AU season before that road trip to see the defending champs Oct. 8, should make for easy-to-see momentum in the wake of the departure of athletic director Allen Greene—though that could be trouble for Harsin as the weather turns. 

The 2021 Tiger offense under the offensive-minded coach was subpar at best (81st in scoring offense, 66th in yardage). That couples with the presented instability with the athletic administration and even Harsin's job security, all of which certainly come up on the recruiting trail between other coaching staffs, high school coaches, prospect's parents and others. Tabbing veteran TJ Finley as QB1 this week could prove to be a make-or-break call on many fronts. 

Miami

Fair or not, this is what Cristobal signed up for in his return to his alma mater. He'd be the first to confirm the need to turn things around in a hurry for total buy-in from one of the most inconsistent fan bases in the sport. The off-field beginning has unfolded in near ideal fashion, with a deep investment in his strong coaching staff, a new athletic director in Dan Radakovich who was poached from Clemson, and even a future high NFL draft pick at quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke. 

The combination has allowed for a stellar recruiting class early on, complete with one of the U.S.’s top quarterback and offensive line hauls, including the top interior offensive line projection nationally in Francis Mauigoa. Like with the IMG Academy offensive lineman, many recruiting wins came head to head with major competition from the Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State stratosphere—though all three are unlikely to yield after losing out on a nonbinding verbal commitment early on. It’s in that context, especially with the strong national vibe among commitments (nine of 17 pledges have roots outside of Florida), that the on-field product is most critical. 

The offense, in particular under reigning Broyles Award winner Josh Gattis, could also play a part in how the rest of the recruiting board shakes out. Despite the strong start, the Canes have struck out at the running back position and have many big-fish targets remaining at wide receiver in SI99 recruits and locals Brandon Inniss, Jurrion Dickey, Hykeem Williams and Jalen Brown. Three of the four have already made verbal commitments elsewhere and the fourth, Williams, is scheduled to come off the board Sept. 23.  

South Carolina

Another second-year coach on the list? Absolutely. The window to make real change in college football is no longer a long-haul play, especially in SEC country (see Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, LSU, Tennessee, etc. in the last 36 months). Still, Shane Beamer has built up the energy, expectation and recruiting chops to match early in his tenure. It includes big head-to-head recruiting wins with programs like Georgia (SI99 defensive lineman Xzavier McLeod) and Ohio State (pass rusher Desmond Umeozulu) in the last two weeks alone. 

USC has outrecruited expectations with its 20 verbal commitments, including nine verbal commitments on board over the last month or so. Just four of the current members of the class are from within state lines, including seven of nine trench commitments to date, so an on-field drop-off could cut into one of the surprise classes of the 2023 recruiting cycle. 

Five ranked teams on the schedule, as the SEC East improves in overall standing, could create a wide range when it comes to win-loss record when the dust settles. It should be noted Beamer and the Gamecocks were among the surprise winners of the transfer portal wildness that came after the coaching carousel last fall, headlined by one-time Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler. The former Oklahoma QB could be as tied to the USC perception as Beamer is over the next four months. 

Texas

This one goes without saying. Texas is the program coming off the worst record (5–7 last year) relative to those near the top of the recruiting rankings. The 2023 Manning hype aside, there are general Sarkisian hot-seat overtures pending based on a high firepower offensive roster and a fluctuating Big 12 with Oklahoma under new management. 

Last year’s offense was productive but careless, while the defense left a lot to be desired. A strong class and the portal helped to solidify each unit, but there is still a lot riding on Sarkisian and newly named starting quarterback Quinn Ewers. Is he the Manning placeholder or the QB to finally help bring UT back to the mountaintop? That conversation will continue to come up in recruiting circles depending on the on-field product. 

With the Longhorns, it’s also worth considering where this elite recruiting class comes from. There is a strong Texas presence, as seemingly always, but some of its best pledges are from Florida (No. 1 running back recruit Cedric Baxter Jr.) and Louisiana (Manning, No. 2 safety Derek Williams and others). With Baxter in particular, the contending programs before the Texas commitment like Texas A&M, Miami and Florida, won’t soon slow for the nation’s best all-around back. Early-season slip-ups and/or hot-seat talk with Sarkisian could prove fluid. 

Texas Tech

Joey McGuire hit the ground running early in his Tech tenure and built the biggest recruiting class in the country by the time spring ball kicked off. On two fronts, losing top commitments and other programs catching up as the cycle progressed, the Red Raiders group is surprising but trending lower than the ceiling once appeared. The group still sits among the biggest in the country at 25 pledges, with 22 from the Lone Star State. 

A pair of June decommitments still play nationally when considering the Big 12 program. SI99 defensive back Calvin Simpson-Hunt, a Texan now committed to Ohio State, profiles like a classic poach—the bigger, badder program came calling, and it was too much for the recruit to pass up. Two days before, El Paso native LJ Martin flipped from Tech to Stanford in an easier-to-digest loss given the academic opportunity in Palo Alto. 

McGuire is revered in the state, though, so there is a sense some benefit of the doubt will be administered by the public given the low ceiling the program has shown in the win-loss department. TTU hasn't won more than three Big 12 games since 2015, so this is a program where contending could help steady the recruiting ship as much as winning is necessary for the others on the list.  

Other programs under consideration (listed alphabetically): Baylor, Florida State, Nebraska, Notre Dame.

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John Garcia Jr.
JOHN GARCIA JR.

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