AAC Men’s Basketball Preseason Rankings: It’s Houston’s League to Lose

It’s the last hurrah for this iteration of the conference before realignment strikes, but the good times should last through 2022–23.

As part of its 2022–23 men’s basketball preseason coverage, Sports Illustrated is rolling out previews for each of the top 10 conferences. Next up is the American.

This is the last year of the AAC as presently constructed. Big changes are on the horizon with Houston, Cincinnati and UCF on the way out following the academic year and six newcomers, all from Conference USA, on the way to replace them. That looming move will have massive impacts on how this league is viewed moving forward in the greater landscape, especially considering just how good Houston has been lately.

But while the long-term outlook for the AAC isn’t overly rosy, there are plenty of reasons to be excited for this season. The Cougars should be elite again, Memphis isn’t going anywhere, Cincinnati could be in for a breakthrough, and Tulane and Temple could have the best teams they’ve had in awhile. All that is a recipe for a fun final year of the AAC in this form.

More Previews: A-10 | Mountain West | WCC

SI’s picks for …

Player of the Year: Marcus Sasser, Houston

Newcomer of the Year: Kendric Davis, Memphis

Dark Horse Team: Temple

First Team All-Conference:

• Marcus Sasser, Houston
• Jamal Shead, Houston
• Kendric Davis, Memphis
• Jalen Cook, Tulane
• Jarace Walker, Houston

SI’s predicted order of finish:

1. Houston

Houston has a legitimate case as the best team in the nation. Kelvin Sampson has an embarrassment of riches: Two elite guards in Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead who generate offense, two potential NBA prospects in high-motor forward Jarace Walker and three-and-D wing Terrance Arceneaux, and a stable of frontcourt players who buy into Sampson’s system on the glass and on defense. I’m particularly excited to see how Walker fits in given his elite physical tools paired with a system that will allow him to wreak havoc without needing to call plays for him. Plus, Sasser might be the best guard in the sport, and Shead gained tons of experience after being thrust into a big role last season with Sasser sidelined. A second Final Four in three years is certainly on the table … and this time the Coogs might just cut down the nets.

Postseason Projection: Title Contender

Sasser is SI’s pick for conference Player of the Year :: Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports

2. Memphis

The Tigers lose seven of their top nine scorers from a season ago but are still well-positioned in 2022–23 thanks to the presence of guard Kendric Davis. The SMU transfer could have gone virtually anywhere in the country but stayed in the AAC and gives Penny Hardaway the dynamic playmaker at point guard he wanted throughout his tenure as coach. Davis and veteran forward DeAndre Williams form an impressive one-two punch, but a lack of shot-making on the wing could hold this Memphis team back from challenging Houston at the top of the AAC.

Postseason Projection: Safe to Dance

3. Cincinnati

This roster is starting to look like Wes Miller wants it to, with big, physical wings willing to defend and sturdy interior forces to go with lightning-quick guards who can make plays. Memphis transfer Landers Nolley II should spark an offense that didn’t generate quite enough good looks last season, and a breakout year could be in store for young forward Viktor Lakhin. If this team gets good enough point guard play from Indiana transfer Rob Phinisee and holdover Mika Adams-Woods, the Bearcats should be dancing.

Postseason Projection: On the Bubble

4. Tulane

Last season Tulane finished over .500 in its conference for the first time since 2007, further proof of Ron Hunter’s magnificent coaching chops at a very tricky job. Even more is possible this year with the return of star point guard Jalen Cook. An LSU transfer, Cook emerged into a potential NBA prospect in his first year with the Green Wave thanks to his shooting ability and skill in ball screens. He and Jaylen Forbes form an excellent nucleus, and the Wave should be deeper than they were a season ago. Plus, this group looks more athletic on paper, which should help against the league’s best teams.

Postseason Projection: NIT Bound

5. Temple

A key fourth year looms for Aaron McKie, who has finished 100th or worse in KenPom in all three seasons as coach of a program with higher expectations than that. The good news: McKie has a roster that could allow the Owls to make a major leap. Temple’s main failing last season was not having quite enough scoring pop, but much of that was due to talented shooting guard Khalif Battle going down with a season-ending injury after just seven games. A healthy Battle is one of the league’s most explosive scorers, and he’ll form quite a backcourt duo with Damian Dunn. Add in a pair breakout candidates in Zach Hicks and Jahlil White, and there’s a real chance the Owls could be in the NCAA tournament picture come March.

Postseason Projection: NIT Bound

6. Wichita State

Seven players transferred out in what was a mass exodus following Year 2 for coach Isaac Brown, and things feel rather uneasy in Wichita after the program’s first sub-.500 conference finish in over a decade. Hopes of a turnaround hinge heavily on returning point guard Craig Porter Jr., a stat-sheet stuffer who seems ready for a breakout season in his third year with the program. And while the portal took plenty from the Shockers, newcomers like Colby Rogers (Siena), Jaron Pierre Jr. (Southern Miss), Gus Okafor (Southeastern Louisiana) and James Rojas (Alabama) are all good enough to be in the rotation or more at this level.

Postseason Projection: Better Luck Next Year

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7. UCF

The Knights have finished between 100th and 120th in KenPom in four of the last five seasons under Johnny Dawkins. A similar mark this year feels about right once again despite the departure of point guard Darius Perry to the pros. Darius Johnson should take on a leading role in the backcourt, while Pitt transfer Ithiel Horton seems likely to flank Johnson in the starting lineup and add shooting. This team also has one of the league’s most electrifying athletes in C.J. Walker, who’ll need to carry a larger scoring burden in 2022–23.

Postseason Projection: Better Luck Next Year

8. SMU

Fresh off leading Georgia State to the NCAA tournament, Rob Lanier takes over for Tim Jankovich at SMU. The roster turned over quite a bit this offseason, but there’s enough athleticism and talent for this ranking to look far too low come March. This team should fit Lanier’s desire to press and force turnovers to a T, but the concern lies in lack of shot creators. Perhaps big wing Samuell Williamson finally puts it all together after underachieving his lofty recruiting billing at Louisville; if not, the offensive skill level for this group might not cut it.

Postseason Projection: Better Luck Next Year

9. Tulsa

New coach Eric Konkol never reached the NCAA tournament in his tenure at Louisiana Tech, but he did build a consistent winner and topped 20 victories in six of his seven seasons in Ruston. This Tulsa group lacks the proven frontcourt production or pedigree to challenge in the top half of the league in Year 1, but Konkol can rely on a gifted scorer in Sam Griffin to carry the load offensively.

Postseason Projection: Better Luck Next Year

10. South Florida

The Bulls cratered last season, mostly thanks to an offense that ranked in the bottom 10 nationally, per KenPom. A rebuilt backcourt featuring three transfers in Tyler Harris (Memphis), Selton Miguel (Kansas State) and Keyshawn Bryant (South Carolina) should raise the floor, though that trio doesn’t project to fix the Bulls’ horrendous outside shooting from a season ago. But even marginal improvement offensively would make USF a lot more competitive, as this group has the makings for a solid defense: physical wings, good positional size and a hulking interior presence in Russel Tchewa.

Postseason Projection: Better Luck Next Year

11. East Carolina

Rick Barnes disciple Michael Schwartz inherits quite the rebuilding job at ECU, which is far from a destination job in college hoops. Schwartz was the defensive architect for Barnes at Tennessee, and significant improvement from the Pirates in Year 1 likely hinges upon that tactical genius. Guard Wynston Tabbs is a gifted scorer but has played a total of 27 games in the last three seasons and may not be ready for the start of this one due to injury. Young players like Quentin Diboundje, RJ Felton and Ezra Ausar emerging would make this season a win.

Postseason Projection: Better Luck Next Year

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